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  2. Sun, Dec 13
  3. WCU @ UVA
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 13

Western Carolina Catamounts at Virginia Cavaliers

John Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia
#215WCUW Carolina
@
#20UVAVirginia AP #9
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WCUThis seasonUVA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVA 90–61 · win probability UVA 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

WCU 0, UVA 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UVABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: WCU 50.5 and allows 54.9; UVA 54.6 and allows 45.8
UVABig
UVA offense vs WCU defense
Offense 32nd of 366 against a defense 256th, on the model’s ratings
UVABig
Three-pointers
WCU hits 33.5% and allows 36.7%; UVA hits 36.3% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 40.9% and 46.7% of their shots
UVABig
WCU offense vs UVA defense
Offense 171st of 366 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
WCU has played the 177th-hardest schedule, UVA the 68th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UVASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WCU 16%, UVA 57%. Transfers in: WCU 6, UVA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UVASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: WCU 31.3, UVA 32.3. Allowed: WCU 37.8, UVA 32.9
UVASmall
Home court
UVA at home. This season: UVA 0-0 at home, WCU 0-0 away
UVASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WCU 16.7%, UVA 16.0%. Forced: WCU 14.6%, UVA 15.4%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: WCU plays 69.3 a game (162nd fastest), UVA 67.6 (247th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WCU 35.4%, UVA 37.9%. Defensive: WCU 73.7%, UVA 70.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UVA -29.4—
Total—151.4—
Projected score—WCU 61 · UVA 90.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUVA -17.3—
1H total70.8—
1H projected scoreWCU 26.7 · UVA 44.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Virginia has the better starters

Position by position: W Carolina 0, Virginia 3, even 2
W CarolinaBetterVirginia
G M. Brown TR11.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 48
UVASmall
G J. Dixon TR15.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 82
G I. Manning TR9.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 64
Even
G J. Vide TR12 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 66
G T. Bryson TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 70
Even
G C. Harmon TR13.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 73
G J. Prunty TR3.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 20
UVABig
G S. Lewis10.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77
F S. Dada6.2 pts · 7.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77
UVASmall
F T. De Ridder15.6 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
W CarolinaBetterVirginia
WCU offense171st of 366 · -5.2
UVABig
UVA defense13th of 366 · +6.6
WCU defense256th of 366 · -6.7
UVABig
UVA offense32nd of 366 · +5.9
Backcourt-1.7 · 4 players
UVABig
Backcourt+3.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player
UVABig
Frontcourt+4.2 · 1 player
Bench-1.5 · 4 players
UVABig
Bench+3.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWCU betterUVA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
W Carolina
Guards
M. Brown31 min · TRI. Manning20 min · TRT. Bryson18 min · TRJ. Prunty16 min · TRJ. Roberts8 min · TRD. Hollifield2 min
Forwards
S. Dada20 minT. Smith10 minD. Raymond6 min · TRF. SodipoNew
Virginia
Guards
J. Dixon31 min · TRJ. Vide29 min · TRC. Harmon28 min · TRS. Lewis26 minC. Mallory24 minE. Gertrude6 min
Forwards
T. De Ridder28 minC. Lang2 minK. AnyaNewS. BarksdaleNewN. AdekunleNew
Centers
J. Grunloh21 minF. IbeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WCUUVA
Scoring
76.3 #134Points per game80.4 #57
1.10 #140Points per possession1.19 #21
69.3 #162Pace (possessions)67.6 #247
Shooting
50.5 #218Effective FG%54.6 #49
33.5 #1983-point %36.3 #48
40.9 #1473-point attempt rate46.7 #36
31.3 #274Free throw rate32.3 #253
Possessions
16.7 #179Turnover rate16.0 #141
35.4 #36Offensive rebound rate37.9 #9
12.0 #286Assists per game16.3 #41
Defense
79.0 #299Points allowed68.8 #46
1.14 #307Points allowed per possession1.02 #39
54.9 #327Opponent effective FG%45.8 #8
36.7 #337Opponent 3-point %31.6 #46
14.6 #318Turnovers forced15.4 #256
73.7 #22Defensive rebound rate70.8 #120
5.8 #266Steals per game6.3 #199
2.4 #315Blocks per game6.4 #1
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Carolina

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs ETSU67–69
  • Wvs Mercer77–73
  • Wvs Furman86–67
  • Wvs Mercer78–74
  • W@ VMI81–62

A week or more of rest.

Virginia

30-6 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee72–79
  • Wvs Wright St82–73
  • Lvs Duke70–74
  • Wvs Miami84–62
  • Wvs NC State81–74

A week or more of rest.