John Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia · Conference game
Closing line
UVA -14.5✓ WAKE covered by 9.5
UVA -14.5✓ WAKE covered by 9.5Closing total150.5Under by 5.5
 WAKE | This season | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| 15-14 | Record | 25-4 |
| 12-17 | ATS | 15-14 |
| 17-12 | O/U | 11-18 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: WAKE 71–81 UVA · ✓ UVA (80%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE | 24 | 46 | 70 |
| UVA | 32 | 43 | 75 |
1st half: WAKE 24, UVA 32 (UVA by 8). The model had UVA by 5.6 and a total of 71.0 (actual 56).
Team stats
| WAKE | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-62 39% | Field goals | 25-58 43% |
| 8-25 32% | 3-pointers | 10-32 31% |
| 14-15 93% | Free throws | 15-23 65% |
| 33 8 off | Rebounds | 43 12 off |
| 11 | Assists | 17 |
| 5 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 9 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| WAKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juke Harris G | 39 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 7-18 | 1-9 |
| Tre'Von Spillers F | 32 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Myles Colvin G | 23 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 3-11 | 1-4 |
| Omaha Biliew F | 11 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Isaac Carr G | 9 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sebastian Akins G | 31 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 3-10 | 2-3 |
| Cooper Schwieger F | 29 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0-5 | 0-1 |
| Mekhi Mason G | 26 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 9-12 | 4-7 |
Did not play: Anson Beard Jr., Jaylen Cross, Dimitrije Kovacevic, Will Underwood, Vincent Ricchiuti, Marqus Marion, Nate Calmese, Owen Kmety
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thijs De Ridder F | 30 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 4-10 | 2-4 |
| Dallin Hall G | 28 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Malik Thomas G | 27 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4-8 | 2-5 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 27 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 4-5 | 1-2 |
| Sam Lewis G | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 25 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Jacari White G | 24 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 6-12 | 2-7 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 13 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Devin Tillis F | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
Did not play: Owen Odom, Martin Carrere, Desmond Roberts, Silas Barksdale, Elijah Gertrude, Carter Lang
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVA -14.5
ModelUVA -9.7
Model edgeWAKE +4.8
W WAKE covered
Total
Market150.5
Model151.7
Model edgeOver 1.2
L Under
Projected score
WAKE 71 · UVA 80.7
WAKE 70 · UVA 75
Win probability
UVA 80%
1st half
Spread
UVA -5.6
UVA -8.0
Total
71.0
56 points
Projected score
WAKE 32.7 · UVA 38.3
WAKE 24 · UVA 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -14.5
no move
CloseUVA -14.5
No change since the open
Total
Open147.5
▲ 3
Close150.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
WAKE +950 · UVA -1650
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -14.5 · unchangedmodel UVA -9.5
model UVA -9.5
Opened 147.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 3 upmodel 151.5
model 151.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| UVA | 9-1 90% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
WAKE 2–3 UVAUVA leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · UVA has won the last 2 meetings · WAKE 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2024-25 | UVA 83 @ WAKE 75 | WAKE -6.5 | UVA W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | WAKE 47 @ UVA 49 | UVA -2.5 | WAKE W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | UVA 47 @ WAKE 66 | WAKE -5.5 | WAKE W |
| Jan 21, 2022-23 | UVA 76 @ WAKE 67 | WAKE +3.5 | UVA W |
| Jan 15, 2021-22 | WAKE 63 @ UVA 55 | UVA -4.5 | WAKE W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Wake Forest
29 games played
Straight up
15-14
52% wins
Against the spread
12-17
41% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-12
59% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs AMER | W 88-74 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 7 | vs MORE | W 81-65 | -22.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 11 | vs MICH | L 84-85 | +15.5 | W +14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 16 | vs UML | W 109-75 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 165.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 20 | vs TTU | L 83-84 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs MEM | W 69-68 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs CAM | W 99-51 | -17.5 | W +30.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 28 | vs NE | W 86-73 | -17.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 2 | vs OU | L 68-86 | -4.5 | L −22.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 6 | vs WVU | W 75-66 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 14 | vs QUC | W 111-73 | -18.5 | W +19.5 | 165.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 17 | vs LONG | W 71-68 | -24.5 | L −21.5 | 163.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | vs VAN | L 67-98 | +5.5 | L −25.5 | 164.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 31 | @ NCSU | L 57-70 | +10.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vs VT | W 81-78 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 7 | vs MIA | L 77-81 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | @ UNC | L 84-87 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 17 | @ FSU | W 69-68 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 20 | vs SMU | L 79-91 | -1.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 24 | @ DUKE | L 69-90 | +19.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 27 | @ PITT | L 76-80 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | vsNCSU | L 78-96 | +5.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 7 | vs LOU | L 80-88 | +9.5 | W +1.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 11 | @ GT | W 83-67 | -3.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 150 |
| Feb 14 | vs STAN | W 68-63 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 18 | vs CLEM | W 85-77 | +4.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 21 | @VT | L 63-82 | +3.5 | L −15.5 | 150.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 25 | @ BC | L 67-68 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 28 | vs SYR | W 88-83 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsAMER
AMERW 88-74
−5.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 81-65
−6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 84-85
+14.5
16
vsUML
UMLW 109-75
+3.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 83-84
+8.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 69-68
−1.5
25
vsCAM
CAMW 99-51
+30.5
28
vsNE
NEW 86-73
−4.5
2
vsOU
OUL 68-86
−22.5
6
vsWVU
WVUW 75-66
+11.5
14
vsQUC
QUCW 111-73
+19.5
17
vsLONG
LONGW 71-68
−21.5
21
vsVAN
VANL 67-98
−25.5
31
@NCSU
NCSUL 57-70
−2.5
3
vsVT
VTW 81-78
−2.5
7
vsMIA
MIAL 77-81
−5.5
10
@UNC
UNCL 84-87
+7.5
17
@FSU
FSUW 69-68
−0.5
20
vsSMU
SMUL 79-91
−13.5
24
@DUKE
DUKEL 69-90
−1.5
27
@PITT
PITTL 76-80
−2.5
31
vsNCSU
NCSUL 78-96
−12.5
7
vsLOU
LOUL 80-88
+1.5
11
@GT
GTW 83-67
+12.5
14
vsSTAN
STANW 68-63
+0.5
18
vsCLEM
CLEMW 85-77
+12.5
21
@VT
VTL 63-82
−15.5
25
@BC
BCL 67-68
−4.5
28
vsSYR
SYRW 88-83
+1.5
covered 12didn’t cover 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsAMER
AMERW 88-74
+22.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 81-65
−6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 84-85
+0.5
16
vsUML
UMLW 109-75
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 83-84
+6.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 69-68
−23.5
25
vsCAM
CAMW 99-51
−9.5
28
vsNE
NEW 86-73
+4.5
2
vsOU
OUL 68-86
−5.5
6
vsWVU
WVUW 75-66
−2.5
14
vsQUC
QUCW 111-73
+18.5
17
vsLONG
LONGW 71-68
−24.5
21
vsVAN
VANL 67-98
+0.5
31
@NCSU
NCSUL 57-70
−32.5
3
vsVT
VTW 81-78
+5.5
7
vsMIA
MIAL 77-81
+0.5
10
@UNC
UNCL 84-87
+16.5
17
@FSU
FSUW 69-68
−31.5
20
vsSMU
SMUL 79-91
+12.5
24
@DUKE
DUKEL 69-90
+5.5
27
@PITT
PITTL 76-80
+5.5
31
vsNCSU
NCSUL 78-96
+17.5
7
vsLOU
LOUL 80-88
+5.5
11
@GT
GTW 83-67
−8.5
14
vsSTAN
STANW 68-63
−19.5
18
vsCLEM
CLEMW 85-77
+21.5
21
@VT
VTL 63-82
−5.5
25
@BC
BCL 67-68
−10.5
28
vsSYR
SYRW 88-83
+18.5
over 17under 12avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Virginia
29 games played
Straight up
25-4
86% wins
Against the spread
15-14
52% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-18
38% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vsQUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vsAMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 7 | vs CAL | W 84-60 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vsSTAN | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 13 | @LOU | W 79-70 | +4.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @SMU | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | vsUNC | L 80-85 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 27 | @ ND | W 100-97 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
| Jan 31 | @BC | W 73-66 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 3 | vsPITT | W 67-47 | -12.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | U 114 |
| Feb 7 | vsSYR | W 72-59 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 10 | @FSU | W 61-58 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 14 | vs OSU | W 70-66 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 18 | @GT | W 94-68 | -13.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 21 | vsMIA | W 86-83 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 24 | vsNCSU | W 90-61 | -6.5 | W +22.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | @DUKE | L 51-77 | +9.5 | L −16.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
+9.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
+2.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
+13.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
+1.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
−11.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
−6.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−6.5
3
vsPITT
PITTW 67-47
+7.5
7
vsSYR
SYRW 72-59
−0.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 61-58
−5.5
14
vsOSU
OSUW 70-66
−1.5
18
@GT
GTW 94-68
+12.5
21
vsMIA
MIAW 86-83
−4.5
24
vsNCSU
NCSUW 90-61
+22.5
28
@DUKE
DUKEL 51-77
−16.5
covered 15didn’t cover 14avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
−4.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
−18.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
−5.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
−13.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
+12.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
+51.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−2.5
3
vsPITT
PITTW 67-47
−28.5
7
vsSYR
SYRW 72-59
−16.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 61-58
−36.5
14
vsOSU
OSUW 70-66
−10.5
18
@GT
GTW 94-68
+11.5
21
vsMIA
MIAW 86-83
+23.5
24
vsNCSU
NCSUW 90-61
−0.5
28
@DUKE
DUKEL 51-77
−15.5
over 11under 18avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Wake Forest
15-14 overall · 6-10 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Syracuse88–83
- L@ Boston College67–68
- L@ Virginia Tech63–82
- Wvs Clemson85–77
- Wvs Stanford68–63
3 days since their last game.
Virginia
25-4 overall · 13-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Duke51–77
- Wvs NC State90–61
- Wvs Miami86–83
- W@ Georgia Tech94–68
- Wvs Ohio State70–66
3 days since their last game.