Virginia Tech Hokies at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 12:00 PM ETLJVM Coliseum · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Final

#89WAKEWake Forest81▲ winner

Closing lineWAKE -5.5✓ VT covered by 2.5

Closing total153.5Over by 5.5

Season records: Virginia Tech and Wake Forest
VT	This season	WAKE
12-2	Record	9-5
8-6	ATS	6-8
8-6	O/U	7-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: VT 77–81 WAKE · ✓ WAKE (67%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
VT	32	46	78
WAKE	36	45	81

1st half: VT 32, WAKE 36 (WAKE by 4). The model had WAKE by 2.8 and a total of 74.0 (actual 68).

Team stats

VT		WAKE
25-53 47%	Field goals	30-67 45%
10-30 33%	3-pointers	7-24 29%
18-25 72%	Free throws	14-16 88%
33 8 off	Rebounds	34 13 off
15	Assists	14
6	Steals	10
2	Blocks	1
19	Turnovers	11
19	Fouls	21
24	Points in paint	40
12	Fast-break points	15

Players

VT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jailen Bedford G	35	25	5	1	9-18	5-11
Neo Avdalas G	34	8	1	7	2-5	1-4
Jaden Schutt G	28	3	2	1	1-6	1-6
Amani Hansberry F	28	19	10	4	7-9	2-3
Christian Gurdak C	27	6	6	0	1-3	0-0
Bench
Ben Hammond G	27	14	1	2	4-7	1-2
Sin'Cere Jones F	17	3	4	0	1-5	0-4
Izaiah Pasha G	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Antonio Dorn, Solomon Davis, Shamarius Peterkin, Brett Freeman, Tobi Lawal, Tyler Johnson

WAKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Juke Harris G	36	15	5	1	4-12	0-3
Tre'Von Spillers F	32	15	5	2	7-13	0-1
Nate Calmese G	32	25	3	7	9-18	3-6
Myles Colvin G	26	7	8	0	3-7	1-4
Omaha Biliew F	15	4	1	1	2-4	0-2
Bench
Cooper Schwieger F	25	8	5	1	2-3	2-2
Mekhi Mason G	18	5	0	0	2-8	1-5
Sebastian Akins G	9	2	2	2	1-2	0-1
Marqus Marion F	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Jaylen Cross G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dimitrije Kovacevic, Vincent Ricchiuti, Anson Beard Jr., Isaac Carr, Owen Kmety, Will Underwood

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WAKE -5.5	WAKE -5.0	VT +0.5	W VT covered
Total	153.5	157.9	Over 4.4	W Over
Projected score	—	VT 76.5 · WAKE 81.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WAKE -2.8	WAKE -4.0
1H total	74.0	68
1H projected score	VT 35.6 · WAKE 38.4	VT 32 · WAKE 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT WWWLW	8-6	57%	1-0	3-2
WAKE WWLLL	6-8	43%	3-6	3-6

Venue/role: VT away, as underdog; WAKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT UOUOO	8-6	57%	12-2
WAKE UOUOU	7-7	50%	9-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
WAKE	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

VT 1–4 WAKEWAKE leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · VT 1-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 18, 2024-25	WAKE 72 @ VT 63	VT +3.5	WAKE W
Mar 2, 2023-24	WAKE 76 @ VT 87	VT -1.5	VT W
Dec 30, 2023-24	VT 63 @ WAKE 86	WAKE -3.5	WAKE W
Dec 31, 2022-23	VT 75 @ WAKE 77	WAKE +1.5	WAKE W
Dec 4, 2021-22	WAKE 80 @ VT 61	VT -9.5	WAKE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Virginia Tech

14 games played

Straight up

12-2

86% wins

Against the spread

8-6

57% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-6

57% overs · avg +6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-286%

W W W W W W L L W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-657%

W W W L L L L L W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-657%

O O U O U U U O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHSO	W 98-67	-18.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 165
Nov 8	vsPROV	W 107-101	+2.5	W +8.5	157.5	O 208
Nov 12	vsJOES	W 94-59	-12.5	W +22.5	158.5	U 153
Nov 16	vsCLT	W 84-76	-18.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 19	vsBRY	W 78-61	-24.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 26	vsCSU	W 66-64	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 130
Nov 27	vsSMC	L 66-77	+5.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 28	vsVCU	L 68-86	+2.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 154
Dec 2	@SC	W 86-83	+2.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 169
Dec 6	vsGMU	W 73-62	-4.5	W +6.5	144.5	U 135
Dec 11	vsWCU	W 96-74	-20.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 14	vsUMES	W 82-53	-27.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 20	vsELON	W 82-81	-12.5	L −11.5	158.5	O 163
Dec 31	vsUVA	W 95-85	+5.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHSO

W 98-67

+12.5

PROV

W 107-101

+8.5

JOES

W 94-59

+22.5

CLT

W 84-76

−10.5

BRY

W 78-61

−7.5

CSU

W 66-64

−2.5

SMC

L 66-77

−5.5

VCU

L 68-86

−15.5

W 86-83

+5.5

GMU

W 73-62

+6.5

WCU

W 96-74

+1.5

UMES

W 82-53

+1.5

ELON

W 82-81

−11.5

UVA

W 95-85

+15.5

covered 8didn’t cover 6avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHSO

W 98-67

+18.5

PROV

W 107-101

+50.5

JOES

W 94-59

−5.5

CLT

W 84-76

+14.5

BRY

W 78-61

−12.5

CSU

W 66-64

−23.5

SMC

L 66-77

−1.5

VCU

L 68-86

+0.5

W 86-83

+19.5

GMU

W 73-62

−9.5

WCU

W 96-74

+17.5

UMES

W 82-53

−4.5

ELON

W 82-81

+4.5

UVA

W 95-85

+26.5

over 8under 6avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wake Forest

14 games played

Straight up

9-5

64% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-7

50% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-564%

W W L W L W W W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-843%

L L W W W L W L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-750%

O U O O O U U O U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAMER	W 88-74	-19.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMORE	W 81-65	-22.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 11	vsMICH	L 84-85	+15.5	W +14.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsUML	W 109-75	-30.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 184
Nov 20	vsTTU	L 83-84	+9.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsMEM	W 69-68	-2.5	L −1.5	160.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsCAM	W 99-51	-17.5	W +30.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 28	vsNE	W 86-73	-17.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsOU	L 68-86	-4.5	L −22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsWVU	W 75-66	+2.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 141
Dec 14	vsQUC	W 111-73	-18.5	W +19.5	165.5	O 184
Dec 17	vsLONG	W 71-68	-24.5	L −21.5	163.5	U 139
Dec 21	vsVAN	L 67-98	+5.5	L −25.5	164.5	O 165
Dec 31	@NCSU	L 57-70	+10.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

−5.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+14.5

UML

W 109-75

+3.5

TTU

L 83-84

+8.5

MEM

W 69-68

−1.5

CAM

W 99-51

+30.5

W 86-73

−4.5

L 68-86

−22.5

WVU

W 75-66

+11.5

QUC

W 111-73

+19.5

LONG

W 71-68

−21.5

VAN

L 67-98

−25.5

NCSU

L 57-70

−2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

+22.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+0.5

UML

W 109-75

+18.5

TTU

L 83-84

+6.5

MEM

W 69-68

−23.5

CAM

W 99-51

−9.5

W 86-73

+4.5

L 68-86

−5.5

WVU

W 75-66

−2.5

QUC

W 111-73

+18.5

LONG

W 71-68

−24.5

VAN

L 67-98

+0.5

NCSU

L 57-70

−32.5

over 7under 7avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest