Spectrum Center · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
UVA -6.5✓ UVA covered by 0.5
UVA -6.5✓ UVA covered by 0.5Closing total153.5Over by 1.5
 NCSU | This season | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| 20-12 | Record | 27-4 |
| 15-17 | ATS | 15-16 |
| 20-12 | O/U | 12-19 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NCSU 77–79 UVA · ✓ UVA (58%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 32 | 42 | 74 |
| UVA | 33 | 48 | 81 |
1st half: NCSU 32, UVA 33 (UVA by 1). The model had UVA by 1.3 and a total of 72.7 (actual 65).
Team stats
| NCSU | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-57 37% | Field goals | 29-61 48% |
| 11-22 50% | 3-pointers | 12-25 48% |
| 21-24 88% | Free throws | 11-14 79% |
| 33 10 off | Rebounds | 34 9 off |
| 12 | Assists | 16 |
| 5 | Steals | 6 |
| 7 | Blocks | 9 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 16 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 37 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 3-9 | 0-0 |
| Quadir Copeland G | 36 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3-10 | 0-1 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 34 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 7-15 | 6-11 |
| Tre Holloman G | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Darrion Williams F | 24 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2-6 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Matt Able G | 23 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Terrance Arceneaux G | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Alyn Breed, Jordan Snell, Colt Langdon, Zymicah Wilkins, Jerry Deng, Scottie Ebube, Jayme Kontuniemi
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallin Hall G | 31 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 28 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-5 |
| Sam Lewis G | 26 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4-10 | 4-5 |
| Malik Thomas G | 20 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 5-10 | 1-3 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 30 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Chance Mallory G | 23 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-2 |
| Jacari White G | 20 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 5-8 | 3-6 |
| Devin Tillis F | 12 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Silas Barksdale, Desmond Roberts, Elijah Gertrude, Martin Carrere, Carter Lang, Owen Odom
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -4.5
2 → UVA
CloseUVA -6.5
2 pts toward UVA
Total
Open151.5
▲ 2
Close153.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
NCSU +230 · UVA -285
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -4.5 · closed UVA -6.5 · moved 2 toward UVAmodel UVA -2.5
model UVA -2.5
Opened 151.5 · closed 153.5 · moved 2 upmodel 155.5
model 155.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UVA -6.5 | UVA -2.4 | NCSU +4.2 | L UVA covered |
| Total | 153.5 | 155.4 | Over 1.9 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | NCSU 76.5 · UVA 78.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UVA -1.3 | UVA -1.0 |
| 1H total | 72.7 | 65 |
| 1H projected score | NCSU 35.7 · UVA 37 | NCSU 32 · UVA 33 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% | 7-3 70% |
| UVA | 9-1 90% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
NCSU 3–5 UVAUVA leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · UVA has won the last 3 meetings · NCSU 3-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2025-26 | NCSU 61 @ UVA 90 | UVA -6.5 | UVA W |
| Jan 3, 2025-26 | UVA 76 @ NCSU 61 | NCSU -4.5 | UVA W |
| Dec 31, 2024-25 | NCSU 67 @ UVA 70 | UVA -0.5 | UVA W |
| Mar 15, 2023-24 | NCSU 73 vs UVA 65 | UVA -2.5 | NCSU W |
| Jan 24, 2023-24 | NCSU 53 @ UVA 59 | UVA -5.5 | UVA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
NC State
32 games played
Straight up
20-12
63% wins
Against the spread
15-17
47% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
20-12
63% overs · avg +7.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | @ AUB | L 73-83 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCA | W 75-63 | -28.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 10 | vs LIB | W 85-45 | -12.5 | W +27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 13 | vs KU | L 76-77 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 17 | vs TXSO | W 108-72 | -34.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 21 | vs MISS | W 76-62 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 31 | vs WAKE | W 70-57 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vsUVA | L 61-76 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 6 | @ BC | W 79-71 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @ FSU | W 113-69 | -4.5 | W +39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 17 | vs GT | L 74-78 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | @ CLEM | W 80-76 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 24 | @ PITT | W 81-72 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 27 | vs SYR | W 88-68 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | @WAKE | W 96-78 | -5.5 | W +12.5 | 156.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 3 | @ SMU | W 84-83 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 7 | vs VT | W 82-73 | -10.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 9 | @ LOU | L 77-118 | +6.5 | L −34.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 14 | vs MIA | L 76-77 | -5.5 | L −6.5 | 157.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | vs UNC | W 82-58 | -8.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 24 | @UVA | L 61-90 | +6.5 | L −22.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | @ ND | L 90-96 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 153.5 | O 186 |
| Mar 2 | vs DUKE | L 64-93 | +8.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
| Mar 7 | vs STAN | L 84-85 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 169 |
| Mar 11 | vsPITT | W 98-88 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | O 186 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−4.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−16.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
+27.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+1.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
+6.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
+2.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−19.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
−3.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+39.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−21.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+6.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+2.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+9.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+12.5
3
@SMU
SMUW 84-83
−0.5
7
vsVT
VTW 82-73
−1.5
9
@LOU
LOUL 77-118
−34.5
14
vsMIA
MIAL 76-77
−6.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 82-58
+15.5
24
@UVA
UVAL 61-90
−22.5
28
@ND
NDL 90-96
−12.5
2
vsDUKE
DUKEL 64-93
−20.5
7
vsSTAN
STANL 84-85
−10.5
11
vsPITT
PITTW 98-88
+1.5
covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−6.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−17.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
−19.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
+4.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+27.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
−10.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
−32.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−14.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
+8.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+21.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−2.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+13.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+8.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+4.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+17.5
3
@SMU
SMUW 84-83
+7.5
7
vsVT
VTW 82-73
+0.5
9
@LOU
LOUL 77-118
+33.5
14
vsMIA
MIAL 76-77
−4.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 82-58
−16.5
24
@UVA
UVAL 61-90
−0.5
28
@ND
NDL 90-96
+32.5
2
vsDUKE
DUKEL 64-93
+6.5
7
vsSTAN
STANL 84-85
+16.5
11
vsPITT
PITTW 98-88
+41.5
over 20under 12avg +7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Virginia
31 games played
Straight up
27-4
87% wins
Against the spread
15-16
48% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-19
39% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vsNCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 7 | vs CAL | W 84-60 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vsSTAN | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 13 | @LOU | W 79-70 | +4.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @SMU | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | vsUNC | L 80-85 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 27 | @ND | W 100-97 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
| Jan 31 | @BC | W 73-66 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 3 | vsPITT | W 67-47 | -12.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | U 114 |
| Feb 7 | vsSYR | W 72-59 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 10 | @FSU | W 61-58 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 14 | vs OSU | W 70-66 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 18 | @GT | W 94-68 | -13.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 21 | vsMIA | W 86-83 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 24 | vsNCSU | W 90-61 | -6.5 | W +22.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | @DUKE | L 51-77 | +9.5 | L −16.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Mar 3 | vsWAKE | W 75-70 | -14.5 | L −9.5 | 150.5 | U 145 |
| Mar 7 | vsVT | W 76-72 | -11.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
+9.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
+2.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
+13.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
+1.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
−11.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
−6.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−6.5
3
vsPITT
PITTW 67-47
+7.5
7
vsSYR
SYRW 72-59
−0.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 61-58
−5.5
14
vsOSU
OSUW 70-66
−1.5
18
@GT
GTW 94-68
+12.5
21
vsMIA
MIAW 86-83
−4.5
24
vsNCSU
NCSUW 90-61
+22.5
28
@DUKE
DUKEL 51-77
−16.5
3
vsWAKE
WAKEW 75-70
−9.5
7
vsVT
VTW 76-72
−7.5
covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
−4.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
−18.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
−5.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
−13.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
+12.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
+51.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−2.5
3
vsPITT
PITTW 67-47
−28.5
7
vsSYR
SYRW 72-59
−16.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 61-58
−36.5
14
vsOSU
OSUW 70-66
−10.5
18
@GT
GTW 94-68
+11.5
21
vsMIA
MIAW 86-83
+23.5
24
vsNCSU
NCSUW 90-61
−0.5
28
@DUKE
DUKEL 51-77
−15.5
3
vsWAKE
WAKEW 75-70
−5.5
7
vsVT
VTW 76-72
+2.5
over 12under 19avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
NC State
20-12 overall · 11-8 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Pitt98–88
- Lvs Stanford84–85
- Lvs Duke64–93
- L@ Notre Dame90–96
- L@ Virginia61–90
1 day since their last game.
Virginia
27-4 overall · 15-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Virginia Tech76–72
- Wvs Wake Forest75–70
- L@ Duke51–77
- Wvs NC State90–61
- Wvs Miami86–83
5 days since their last game.