Lenovo Center · at NC State · Conference game
Closing line
NCSU -8.5✓ NCSU covered by 15.5
NCSU -8.5✓ NCSU covered by 15.5Closing total156.5Under by 16.5
 UNC | This season | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| 20-5 | Record | 18-8 |
| 14-11 | ATS | 13-13 |
| 13-12 | O/U | 16-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UNC 78–79 NCSU · ✓ NCSU (54%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 26 | 32 | 58 |
| NCSU | 42 | 40 | 82 |
1st half: UNC 26, NCSU 42 (NCSU by 16). The model had NCSU by 0.5 and a total of 73.8 (actual 68).
Team stats
| UNC | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-60 32% | Field goals | 31-64 48% |
| 5-33 15% | 3-pointers | 9-20 45% |
| 15-21 71% | Free throws | 11-16 69% |
| 40 17 off | Rebounds | 38 12 off |
| 9 | Assists | 13 |
| 0 | Steals | 7 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarin Stevenson F | 35 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-3 |
| Zayden High F | 30 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 27 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3-8 | 2-5 |
| Seth Trimble G | 27 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1-9 | 0-3 |
| Derek Dixon G | 21 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-12 | 1-9 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jonathan Powell G | 27 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Jaydon Young G | 16 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
| Kyan Evans G | 15 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Isaiah Denis G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Evan Smith, Ivan Matlekovic, John Holbrook, Caleb Wilson, Elijah Davis, James Brown, Henri Veesaar
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadir Copeland G | 32 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7-16 | 0-0 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 31 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-4 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 28 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Tre Holloman G | 17 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Darrion Williams F | 16 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 6-10 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Matt Able G | 31 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 6-10 | 5-7 |
| Terrance Arceneaux G | 23 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1-6 | 1-3 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Alyn Breed G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Snell G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Jerry Deng, Jayme Kontuniemi, Scottie Ebube, Colt Langdon, Zymicah Wilkins
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNCSU -6.5
2 → NCSU
CloseNCSU -8.5
2 pts toward NCSU
Total
Open158.5
▼ 2
Close156.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
UNC +295 · NCSU -375
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NCSU -6.5 · closed NCSU -8.5 · moved 2 toward NCSUmodel NCSU -1
model NCSU -1
Opened 158.5 · closed 156.5 · moved 2 downmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NCSU -8.5 | NCSU -1.1 | UNC +7.5 | L NCSU covered |
| Total | 156.5 | 157.8 | Over 1.3 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | UNC 78.4 · NCSU 79.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | NCSU -0.5 | NCSU -16.0 |
| 1H total | 73.8 | 68 |
| 1H projected score | UNC 36.6 · NCSU 37.1 | UNC 26 · NCSU 42 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
| NCSU | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
UNC 7–2 NCSUUNC leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UNC has won the last 2 meetings · UNC 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024-25 | NCSU 73 @ UNC 97 | UNC -10.5 | UNC W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | UNC 63 @ NCSU 61 | NCSU +4.5 | NCSU W |
| Mar 16, 2023-24 | NCSU 84 vs UNC 76 | UNC -10.5 | NCSU W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | NCSU 70 @ UNC 79 | UNC -10.5 | NCSU W |
| Jan 10, 2023-24 | UNC 67 @ NCSU 54 | NCSU +2.5 | UNC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
North Carolina
25 games played
Straight up
20-5
80% wins
Against the spread
14-11
56% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-12
52% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 16 | vs ETSU | W 77-58 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs OSU | W 71-70 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | vs ECU | W 99-51 | -25.5 | W +22.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 30 | vs FSU | W 79-66 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ SMU | L 83-97 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 10 | vs WAKE | W 87-84 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | @ STAN | L 90-95 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 17 | @ CAL | L 78-84 | -7.5 | L −13.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 21 | vs ND | W 91-69 | -13.5 | W +8.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | @ UVA | W 85-80 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 31 | @ GT | W 91-75 | -9.5 | W +6.5 | 160.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 2 | vs SYR | W 87-77 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 7 | vs DUKE | W 71-68 | +6.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 10 | @ MIA | L 66-75 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 14 | vs PITT | W 79-65 | -11.5 | W +2.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
+1.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−1.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+22.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
+0.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
−12.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
−7.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
−9.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
−13.5
21
vsND
NDW 91-69
+8.5
24
@UVA
UVAW 85-80
+11.5
31
@GT
GTW 91-75
+6.5
2
vsSYR
SYRW 87-77
−1.5
7
vsDUKE
DUKEW 71-68
+9.5
10
@MIA
MIAL 66-75
−7.5
14
vsPITT
PITTW 79-65
+2.5
covered 14didn’t cover 11avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
−15.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−16.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+5.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
−21.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
+24.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
+16.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
+37.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
+10.5
21
vsND
NDW 91-69
+10.5
24
@UVA
UVAW 85-80
+12.5
31
@GT
GTW 91-75
+5.5
2
vsSYR
SYRW 87-77
+5.5
7
vsDUKE
DUKEW 71-68
−13.5
10
@MIA
MIAL 66-75
−15.5
14
vsPITT
PITTW 79-65
+1.5
over 13under 12avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
NC State
26 games played
Straight up
18-8
69% wins
Against the spread
13-13
50% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-10
62% overs · avg +5.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsNCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | @ AUB | L 73-83 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCA | W 75-63 | -28.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 10 | vs LIB | W 85-45 | -12.5 | W +27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 13 | vsKU | L 76-77 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 17 | vs TXSO | W 108-72 | -34.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 21 | vs MISS | W 76-62 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 31 | vsWAKE | W 70-57 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vsUVA | L 61-76 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 6 | @ BC | W 79-71 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @FSU | W 113-69 | -4.5 | W +39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 17 | vsGT | L 74-78 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | @ CLEM | W 80-76 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 24 | @PITT | W 81-72 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 27 | vsSYR | W 88-68 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | @WAKE | W 96-78 | -5.5 | W +12.5 | 156.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 3 | @SMU | W 84-83 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 7 | vs VT | W 82-73 | -10.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 9 | @ LOU | L 77-118 | +6.5 | L −34.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 14 | vsMIA | L 76-77 | -5.5 | L −6.5 | 157.5 | U 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−4.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−16.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
+27.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+1.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
+6.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
+2.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−19.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
−3.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+39.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−21.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+6.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+2.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+9.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+12.5
3
@SMU
SMUW 84-83
−0.5
7
vsVT
VTW 82-73
−1.5
9
@LOU
LOUL 77-118
−34.5
14
vsMIA
MIAL 76-77
−6.5
covered 13didn’t cover 13avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−6.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−17.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
−19.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
+4.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+27.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
−10.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
−32.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−14.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
+8.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+21.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−2.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+13.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+8.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+4.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+17.5
3
@SMU
SMUW 84-83
+7.5
7
vsVT
VTW 82-73
+0.5
9
@LOU
LOUL 77-118
+33.5
14
vsMIA
MIAL 76-77
−4.5
over 16under 10avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
North Carolina
20-5 overall · 8-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Pitt79–65
- L@ Miami66–75
- Wvs Duke71–68
- Wvs Syracuse87–77
- W@ Georgia Tech91–75
3 days since their last game.
NC State
18-8 overall · 9-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Miami76–77
- L@ Louisville77–118
- Wvs Virginia Tech82–73
- W@ SMU84–83
- W@ Wake Forest96–78
3 days since their last game.