Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at UConn Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 7:00 PM ETM&T Bank Center at Gampel Pavilion · at UConn

#6CONNUConn AP #4

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Miss Valley St and UConn
MVSU	This season	CONN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CONN 98–44 · win probability CONN 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CONN has more of the edges

MVSU 0, CONN 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CONNBig

MVSU offense vs CONN defense

Offense 366th of 366 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

CONNBig

CONN offense vs MVSU defense

Offense 25th of 366 against a defense 366th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MVSU has played the 327th-hardest schedule, CONN the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CONNBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MVSU 45.2 and allows 55.5; CONN 54.3 and allows 45.7

CONNBig

Three-pointers

MVSU hits 29.5% and allows 37.2%; CONN hits 34.4% and allows 30.1%. Threes are 30.2% and 40.9% of their shots

CONNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MVSU 26.4%, CONN 35.7%. Defensive: MVSU 64.5%, CONN 71.2%

CONNBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MVSU 21.9%, CONN 16.4%. Forced: MVSU 17.1%, CONN 17.8%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: MVSU plays 70.2 a game (111th fastest), CONN 66.1 (307th). Faster games mean more points

CONNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MVSU 0%, CONN 51%. Transfers in: MVSU 2, CONN 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CONNSmall

Home court

CONN at home. This season: CONN 0-0 at home, MVSU 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MVSU 33.9, CONN 29.9. Allowed: MVSU 50.8, CONN 40.7

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CONN -54.1	—
Total	—	141.2	—
Projected score	—	MVSU 43.5 · CONN 97.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CONN -32.1	—
1H total	66.1	—
1H projected score	MVSU 17 · CONN 49.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MVSU LWWWL	16-16	50%	11-8	—
CONN WWWWW	17-23	43%	4-13	—

Venue/role: MVSU away; CONN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MVSU OUUOU	14-18	44%	2-30
CONN UUOUU	19-21	48%	34-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MVSU	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
CONN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Miss Valley St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	@ MSST	L52–82WO

UConn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs KU	W61–56WU
Dec 15	vs DSU	W95–60WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MVSU 0–1 CONNCONN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MVSU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 14, 2023-24	MVSU 53 @ CONN 87	CONN -44.5	MVSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Miss Valley St

32 games played

Straight up

2-30

6% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-306%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1650%

L L W W W W W L L L L W W L L W L W L W W L L W L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O U O U O O U U O U U O O U U U U U O O O U U O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UAB	L 55-106	+34.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 161
Nov 7	@MUR	L 60-108	+38.5	L −9.5	159.5	O 168
Nov 12	@HAW	L 56-88	+41.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 14	vsUTU	L 75-81	+26.5	W +20.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsMAN	L 73-80	+20.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 153
Nov 22	@CSUB	L 70-86	+21.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 156
Nov 25	@TA&M	L 84-120	+42.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 204
Dec 3	@ULM	L 52-66	+9.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 118
Dec 8	@KSU	L 49-108	+38.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 157
Dec 16	vsTAR	L 64-88	+17.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 152
Dec 19	@FSU	L 49-96	+40.5	L −6.5	164.5	U 145
Dec 22	@WVU	L 51-86	+42.5	W +7.5	137.5	U 137
Dec 29	@OU	L 69-93	+44.5	W +20.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 3	vsALST	L 69-89	+13.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 5	vsAAMU	L 51-71	+10.5	L −9.5	135.5	U 122
Jan 10	@PV	L 69-70	+18.5	W +17.5	152.5	U 139
Jan 12	@TXSO	L 51-84	+12.5	L −20.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 17	vsBCU	L 63-79	+16.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 142
Jan 19	vsFAMU	L 48-62	+11.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 110
Jan 28	@SOU	L 69-80	+20.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 31	vsUAPB	L 70-78	+10.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsJKST	L 81-97	+8.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 178
Feb 9	vsALCN	L 66-74	+5.5	L −2.5	140.5	U 140
Feb 14	@AAMU	L 65-72	+15.5	W +8.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 16	@ALST	L 55-92	+16.5	L −20.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 19	vsPV	L 62-72	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 134
Feb 21	vsTXSO	W 72-71	+11.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 23	@GRAM	L 62-83	+16.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 28	@UAPB	W 70-69	+14.5	W +15.5	147.5	U 139
Mar 3	@ALCN	L 64-67	+9.5	W +6.5	139.5	U 131
Mar 5	@JKST	L 77-85	+11.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 162
Mar 9	vsGRAM	L 52-77	+13.5	L −11.5	135.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

−16.5

MUR

L 60-108

−9.5

HAW

L 56-88

+9.5

UTU

L 75-81

+20.5

MAN

L 73-80

+13.5

CSUB

L 70-86

+5.5

TA&M

L 84-120

+6.5

ULM

L 52-66

−4.5

KSU

L 49-108

−20.5

TAR

L 64-88

−6.5

FSU

L 49-96

−6.5

WVU

L 51-86

+7.5

L 69-93

+20.5

ALST

L 69-89

−6.5

AAMU

L 51-71

−9.5

L 69-70

+17.5

TXSO

L 51-84

−20.5

BCU

L 63-79

+0.5

FAMU

L 48-62

−2.5

SOU

L 69-80

+9.5

UAPB

L 70-78

+2.5

JKST

L 81-97

−7.5

ALCN

L 66-74

−2.5

AAMU

L 65-72

+8.5

ALST

L 55-92

−20.5

L 62-72

−1.5

TXSO

W 72-71

+12.5

GRAM

L 62-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 70-69

+15.5

ALCN

L 64-67

+6.5

JKST

L 77-85

+3.5

GRAM

L 52-77

−11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

+15.5

MUR

L 60-108

+8.5

HAW

L 56-88

−7.5

UTU

L 75-81

+10.5

MAN

L 73-80

−1.5

CSUB

L 70-86

+17.5

TA&M

L 84-120

+49.5

ULM

L 52-66

−31.5

KSU

L 49-108

−3.5

TAR

L 64-88

+9.5

FSU

L 49-96

−19.5

WVU

L 51-86

−0.5

L 69-93

+8.5

ALST

L 69-89

+13.5

AAMU

L 51-71

−13.5

L 69-70

−13.5

TXSO

L 51-84

−7.5

BCU

L 63-79

−2.5

FAMU

L 48-62

−29.5

SOU

L 69-80

+7.5

UAPB

L 70-78

+4.5

JKST

L 81-97

+34.5

ALCN

L 66-74

−0.5

AAMU

L 65-72

−1.5

ALST

L 55-92

+4.5

L 62-72

−19.5

TXSO

W 72-71

−0.5

GRAM

L 62-83

+8.5

UAPB

W 70-69

−8.5

ALCN

L 64-67

−8.5

JKST

L 77-85

+17.5

GRAM

L 52-77

−6.5

over 14under 18avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

UConn

40 games played

Straight up

34-6

85% wins

Against the spread

17-23

43% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-21

48% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

34-685%

W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2343%

L W L L L L W W L L L W W W L L L L L L L W W L L L L W W L L W W L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-2148%

U O U O U U U U O O U U U O U O U O U O O O O O O O O U U O U O U U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNHVN	W 79-55	-42.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 134
Nov 7	vsUML	W 110-47	-36.5	W +26.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 10	vsCOLU	W 89-62	-32.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsBYU	W 86-84	-6.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 170
Nov 19	vsARIZ	L 67-71	-4.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 138
Nov 23	vsBRY	W 72-49	-36.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 121
Nov 28	vsILL	W 74-61	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 2	@KU	W 61-56	-3.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 117
Dec 5	vsETAM	W 83-59	-36.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Dec 9	vsFLA	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 150
Dec 12	vsTEX	W 71-63	-11.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 134
Dec 16	vsBTLR	W 79-60	-15.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 139
Dec 21	@DEP	W 72-54	-12.5	W +5.5	133.5	U 126
Dec 31	@XAV	W 90-67	-11.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 157
Jan 4	vsMARQ	W 73-57	-17.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 7	@PROV	W 103-98	-9.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 201
Jan 10	vsDEP	W 72-60	-19.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 132
Jan 13	@HALL	W 69-64	-6.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 133
Jan 17	@GTWN	W 64-62	-11.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 126
Jan 24	vsVILL	W 75-67	-11.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Jan 27	vsPROV	W 87-81	-15.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 168
Jan 31	@CREI	W 85-58	-6.5	W +20.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 3	vsXAV	W 92-60	-16.5	W +15.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 6	@SJU	L 72-81	-1.5	L −10.5	143.5	O 153
Feb 11	@BTLR	W 80-70	-11.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 150
Feb 14	vsGTWN	W 79-75	-16.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 154
Feb 18	vsCREI	L 84-91	-15.5	L −22.5	143.5	O 175
Feb 21	@VILL	W 73-63	-3.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsSJU	W 72-40	-5.5	W +26.5	145.5	U 112
Feb 28	vsHALL	W 71-67	-12.5	L −8.5	130.5	O 138
Mar 7	@MARQ	L 62-68	-9.5	L −15.5	143.5	U 130
Mar 12	vsXAV	W 93-68	-17.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 161
Mar 13	vsGTWN	W 67-51	-14.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 118
Mar 14	@SJU	L 52-72	-2.5	L −22.5	139.5	U 124
Mar 20	vsFUR	W 82-71	-20.5	L −9.5	133.5	O 153
Mar 22	vsUCLA	W 73-57	-5.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 130
Mar 27	vsMSU	W 67-63	-2.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 130
Mar 29	vsDUKE	W 73-72	+4.5	W +5.5	135.5	O 145
Apr 4	vsILL	W 71-62	+1.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 133
Apr 6	vsMICH	L 63-69	+6.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NHVN

W 79-55

−18.5

UML

W 110-47

+26.5

COLU

W 89-62

−5.5

BYU

W 86-84

−4.5

ARIZ

L 67-71

−8.5

BRY

W 72-49

−13.5

ILL

W 74-61

+8.5

W 61-56

+1.5

ETAM

W 83-59

−12.5

FLA

W 77-73

−0.5

TEX

W 71-63

−3.5

BTLR

W 79-60

+3.5

DEP

W 72-54

+5.5

XAV

W 90-67

+11.5

MARQ

W 73-57

−1.5

PROV

W 103-98

−4.5

DEP

W 72-60

−7.5

HALL

W 69-64

−1.5

GTWN

W 64-62

−9.5

VILL

W 75-67

−3.5

PROV

W 87-81

−9.5

CREI

W 85-58

+20.5

XAV

W 92-60

+15.5

SJU

L 72-81

−10.5

BTLR

W 80-70

−1.5

GTWN

W 79-75

−12.5

CREI

L 84-91

−22.5

VILL

W 73-63

+6.5

SJU

W 72-40

+26.5

HALL

W 71-67

−8.5

MARQ

L 62-68

−15.5

XAV

W 93-68

+7.5

GTWN

W 67-51

+1.5

SJU

L 52-72

−22.5

FUR

W 82-71

−9.5

UCLA

W 73-57

+10.5

MSU

W 67-63

+1.5

DUKE

W 73-72

+5.5

ILL

W 71-62

+10.5

MICH

L 63-69

+0.5

covered 17didn’t cover 23avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NHVN

W 79-55

−11.5

UML

W 110-47

+5.5

COLU

W 89-62

−4.5

BYU

W 86-84

+13.5

ARIZ

L 67-71

−18.5

BRY

W 72-49

−26.5

ILL

W 74-61

−15.5

W 61-56

−24.5

ETAM

W 83-59

+0.5

FLA

W 77-73

+4.5

TEX

W 71-63

−11.5

BTLR

W 79-60

−5.5

DEP

W 72-54

−7.5

XAV

W 90-67

+12.5

MARQ

W 73-57

−14.5

PROV

W 103-98

+48.5

DEP

W 72-60

−5.5

HALL

W 69-64

+0.5

GTWN

W 64-62

−15.5

VILL

W 75-67

+4.5

PROV

W 87-81

+15.5

CREI

W 85-58

+0.5

XAV

W 92-60

+4.5

SJU

L 72-81

+9.5

BTLR

W 80-70

+6.5

GTWN

W 79-75

+15.5

CREI

L 84-91

+31.5

VILL

W 73-63

−5.5

SJU

W 72-40

−33.5

HALL

W 71-67

+7.5

MARQ

L 62-68

−13.5

XAV

W 93-68

+10.5

GTWN

W 67-51

−20.5

SJU

L 52-72

−15.5

FUR

W 82-71

+19.5

UCLA

W 73-57

−5.5

MSU

W 67-63

−6.5

DUKE

W 73-72

+9.5

ILL

W 71-62

−6.5

MICH

L 63-69

−14.5

over 19under 21avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UConn has the better starters

Position by position: Miss Valley St 0, UConn 1, even 4

Miss Valley StBetterUConn

G T. Foster TR5.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 20

CONNBig

G N. Machowski TR17.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 80

G T. James TR0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G S. Demary10.1 pts · 4.5 reb · 5.9 ast Score 98

G E. Pippins NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G S. Ball12.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 87

G A. Abrams NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G B. Mullins12 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 88

F T. Williams NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G J. Nash TR5.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.1 ast Score 26

Miss Valley StBetterUConn

MVSU offense366th of 366 · -17.5

CONNBig

CONN defense2nd of 366 · +11.5

MVSU defense366th of 366 · -14.3

CONNBig

CONN offense25th of 366 · +7.1

Backcourt-2.1 · 4 players

CONNBig

Backcourt+8.5 · 5 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+3.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMVSU betterCONN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Miss Valley St

Guards

T. Foster20 min · TRT. James3 min · TRE. PippinsNewA. AbramsNewM. AngloNewC. CameronNew

Forwards

T. WilliamsNewQ. PangNewG. MartinezNewH. WilsonNewM. McCoyNew

Centers

T. WuNew

UConn

Guards

N. Machowski35 min · TRS. Demary28 minS. Ball28 minB. Mullins28 minJ. Nash26 min · TRJ. CountyNew

Forwards

N. Khamenia20 min · TRI. Shaw18 min · TRJ. Ross18 minJ. RossNewC. LandrewNewE. AmosovNew

Centers

N. Hines18 min · TRO. Giltay15 min · TRE. Dzafic2 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MVSU63.2 #356

CONN76.6 #129

Points per possession

MVSU0.90 #364

CONN1.16 #52

Pace (possessions)

MVSU70.2 #111

CONN66.1 #307

Shooting

Effective FG%

MVSU45.2 #359

CONN54.3 #59

3-point %

MVSU29.5 #346

CONN34.4 #150

3-point attempt rate

MVSU30.2 #351

CONN40.9 #149

Free throw rate

MVSU33.9 #215

CONN29.9 #313

Possessions

Turnover rate

MVSU21.9 #361

CONN16.4 #163

Offensive rebound rate

MVSU26.4 #313

CONN35.7 #30

Assists per game

MVSU11.9 #296

CONN18.1 #9

Defense

Points allowed

MVSU83.7 #353

CONN65.2 #6

Points allowed per possession

MVSU1.20 #355

CONN0.99 #17

Opponent effective FG%

MVSU55.5 #341

CONN45.7 #7

Opponent 3-point %

MVSU37.2 #346

CONN30.1 #8

Turnovers forced

MVSU17.1 #142

CONN17.8 #107

Defensive rebound rate

MVSU64.5 #346

CONN71.2 #99

Steals per game

MVSU7.1 #119

CONN6.8 #143

Blocks per game

MVSU2.6 #300

CONN5.0 #15

MVSU		CONN
Scoring
63.2 #356	Points per game	76.6 #129
0.90 #364	Points per possession	1.16 #52
70.2 #111	Pace (possessions)	66.1 #307
Shooting
45.2 #359	Effective FG%	54.3 #59
29.5 #346	3-point %	34.4 #150
30.2 #351	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #149
33.9 #215	Free throw rate	29.9 #313
Possessions
21.9 #361	Turnover rate	16.4 #163
26.4 #313	Offensive rebound rate	35.7 #30
11.9 #296	Assists per game	18.1 #9
Defense
83.7 #353	Points allowed	65.2 #6
1.20 #355	Points allowed per possession	0.99 #17
55.5 #341	Opponent effective FG%	45.7 #7
37.2 #346	Opponent 3-point %	30.1 #8
17.1 #142	Turnovers forced	17.8 #107
64.5 #346	Defensive rebound rate	71.2 #99
7.1 #119	Steals per game	6.8 #143
2.6 #300	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Miss Valley St

2-30 in 2025-26 overall · 2-17 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Grambling52–77
L@ Jackson St77–85
L@ Alcorn St64–67
W@ AR-Pine Bluff70–69
L@ Grambling62–83

A week or more of rest.

UConn

34-6 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan63–69
Wvs Illinois71–62
Wvs Duke73–72
Wvs Michigan St67–63
Wvs UCLA73–57

A week or more of rest.

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at UConn Huskies

What could decide it: CONN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Miss Valley St

UConn

UConn has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Miss Valley St

UConn