Illinois Fighting Illini at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 7:00 PM ETThe Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota · at Minnesota · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Illinois and Minnesota
ILL	This season	MINN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ILL 80–63 · win probability ILL 92%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 143.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ILL has more of the edges

ILL 4, MINN 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ILLBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ILL 39.2%, MINN 26.8%. Defensive: ILL 73.3%, MINN 70.5%

ILLBig

MINN offense vs ILL defense

Offense 120th of 366 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

ILLSmall

Three-pointers

ILL hits 34.5% and allows 31.3%; MINN hits 34.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 49.7% and 47.1% of their shots

ILLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ILL 54.7 and allows 47.3; MINN 53.9 and allows 51.9

Context

Schedule so far

ILL has played the 18th-hardest schedule, MINN the 71st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINNSmall

Home court

MINN at home. This season: MINN 0-0 at home, ILL 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: ILL plays 66.5 a game (292nd fastest), MINN 63.6 (362nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ILL 33.2, MINN 35.8. Allowed: ILL 19.7, MINN 26.9

Even

ILL offense vs MINN defense

Offense 3rd of 366 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ILL 13.1%, MINN 16.6%. Forced: ILL 11.6%, MINN 16.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ILL 63%, MINN 66%. Transfers in: ILL 1, MINN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ILL -16.3	—
Total	—	143.2	—
Projected score	—	ILL 79.7 · MINN 63.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ILL -9.8	—
1H total	67.0	—
1H projected score	ILL 38.4 · MINN 28.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL WWWWL	22-15	59%	6-4	—
MINN WLLLL	13-20	39%	8-9	—

Venue/role: ILL away; MINN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL OUUUU	15-22	41%	28-9
MINN OUUOU	12-21	36%	15-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
MINN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs PSU	W73–65LU

Minnesota

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs SMU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

ILL 6–0 MINNILL leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · ILL has won the last 6 meetings · ILL 3-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 17, 2025-26	MINN 67 @ ILL 77	ILL -15.5	MINN W
Feb 8, 2024-25	ILL 95 @ MINN 74	MINN +7.5	ILL W
Feb 28, 2023-24	MINN 97 @ ILL 105	ILL -12.5	MINN W
Feb 20, 2022-23	MINN 69 @ ILL 78	ILL -13.5	MINN W
Jan 16, 2022-23	ILL 78 @ MINN 60	MINN +8.5	ILL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Illinois

37 games played

Straight up

28-9

76% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-22

41% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-976%

W W W W L W W L W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W W L L W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W W W L L W L L W W L W W L W W W L W W L W W L L W W L L W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2241%

O O U U U U U U U O O U U U U O U O O O U U U O O U O O U U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJKST	W 113-55	-28.5	W +29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsFGCU	W 113-70	-29.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsTTU	W 81-77	-3.5	W +0.5	168.5	U 158
Nov 14	vsCOLG	W 84-65	-30.5	L −11.5	164.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsALA	L 86-90	-2.5	L −6.5	180.5	U 176
Nov 22	vsLIU	W 98-58	-34.5	W +5.5	160.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsRGV	W 87-73	-33.5	L −19.5	164.5	U 160
Nov 28	vsCONN	L 61-74	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 6	vsTENN	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 9	@OSU	W 88-80	-3.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsNEB	L 80-83	-9.5	L −12.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsMIZ	W 91-48	-8.5	W +34.5	153.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsSOU	W 90-55	-33.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PSU	W 73-65	-14.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 138
Jan 8	vsRUTG	W 81-55	-22.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 136
Jan 11	@IOWA	W 75-69	-1.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 14	@NU	W 79-68	-9.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsMINN	W 77-67	-15.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 21	vsMD	W 89-70	-18.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 24	@PUR	W 88-82	+5.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 29	vsWASH	W 75-66	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 141
Feb 1	@NEB	W 78-69	+1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 4	vsNU	W 84-44	-16.5	W +23.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 7	@MSU	L 82-85	+1.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 167
Feb 10	vsWIS	L 90-92	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 182
Feb 15	vsIU	W 71-51	-8.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 122
Feb 18	@USC	W 101-65	-8.5	W +27.5	151.5	O 166
Feb 21	@UCLA	L 94-95	-6.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 189
Feb 27	vsMICH	L 70-84	+1.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 154
Mar 3	vsORE	W 80-54	-17.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 134
Mar 8	@MD	W 78-72	-14.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 150
Mar 13	vsWIS	L 88-91	-8.5	L −11.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 19	vsPENN	W 105-70	-25.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 175
Mar 21	vsVCU	W 76-55	-12.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 131
Mar 26	vsHOU	W 65-55	+2.5	W +12.5	141.5	U 120
Mar 28	vsIOWA	W 71-59	-6.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 130
Apr 4	vsCONN	L 62-71	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JKST

W 113-55

+29.5

FGCU

W 113-70

+13.5

TTU

W 81-77

+0.5

COLG

W 84-65

−11.5

ALA

L 86-90

−6.5

LIU

W 98-58

+5.5

RGV

W 87-73

−19.5

CONN

L 61-74

−8.5

TENN

W 75-62

+14.5

OSU

W 88-80

+4.5

NEB

L 80-83

−12.5

MIZ

W 91-48

+34.5

SOU

W 90-55

+1.5

PSU

W 73-65

−6.5

RUTG

W 81-55

+3.5

IOWA

W 75-69

+4.5

W 79-68

+1.5

MINN

W 77-67

−5.5

W 89-70

+0.5

PUR

W 88-82

+11.5

WASH

W 75-66

−3.5

NEB

W 78-69

+10.5

W 84-44

+23.5

MSU

L 82-85

−1.5

WIS

L 90-92

−11.5

W 71-51

+11.5

USC

W 101-65

+27.5

UCLA

L 94-95

−7.5

MICH

L 70-84

−12.5

ORE

W 80-54

+8.5

W 78-72

−8.5

WIS

L 88-91

−11.5

PENN

W 105-70

+9.5

VCU

W 76-55

+8.5

HOU

W 65-55

+12.5

IOWA

W 71-59

+5.5

CONN

L 62-71

−10.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JKST

W 113-55

+10.5

FGCU

W 113-70

+22.5

TTU

W 81-77

−10.5

COLG

W 84-65

−15.5

ALA

L 86-90

−4.5

LIU

W 98-58

−4.5

RGV

W 87-73

−4.5

CONN

L 61-74

−15.5

TENN

W 75-62

−12.5

OSU

W 88-80

+5.5

NEB

L 80-83

+6.5

MIZ

W 91-48

−14.5

SOU

W 90-55

−18.5

PSU

W 73-65

−18.5

RUTG

W 81-55

−13.5

IOWA

W 75-69

+1.5

W 79-68

−4.5

MINN

W 77-67

+1.5

W 89-70

+6.5

PUR

W 88-82

+17.5

WASH

W 75-66

−12.5

NEB

W 78-69

−7.5

W 84-44

−21.5

MSU

L 82-85

+24.5

WIS

L 90-92

+28.5

W 71-51

−31.5

USC

W 101-65

+14.5

UCLA

L 94-95

+42.5

MICH

L 70-84

−5.5

ORE

W 80-54

−13.5

W 78-72

+4.5

WIS

L 88-91

+20.5

PENN

W 105-70

+24.5

VCU

W 76-55

−20.5

HOU

W 65-55

−21.5

IOWA

W 71-59

−8.5

CONN

L 62-71

−6.5

over 15under 22avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Minnesota

33 games played

Straight up

15-18

45% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-21

36% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1845%

W W L W W L L L W L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L L W W L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-2039%

L W L L L L L L W L W W L W W L L W L L W L W L L W W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2136%

U U U U U O U O U U U U U O O U O O O U U O O U U U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGWEB	W 87-60	-28.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 8	vsALCN	W 95-50	-31.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 12	@MIZ	L 60-83	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 15	vsGB	W 72-65	-25.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 18	vsCHST	W 66-54	-27.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 22	vsSF	L 65-77	-1.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsSTAN	L 68-72	+2.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 28	vsSCU	L 75-86	+5.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 161
Dec 3	vsIU	W 73-64	+7.5	W +16.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 10	@PUR	L 57-85	+19.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 14	vsTXSO	W 89-53	-21.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 21	vsCAM	W 78-50	-13.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 29	vsFDU	W 60-43	-25.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 103
Jan 3	@NU	W 84-78	+4.5	W +10.5	138.5	O 162
Jan 6	vsIOWA	W 70-67	+4.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 137
Jan 9	vsUSC	L 69-70	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 13	vsWIS	L 75-78	+1.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 153
Jan 17	@ILL	L 67-77	+15.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 20	@OSU	L 74-82	+7.5	L −0.5	143.5	O 156
Jan 24	vsNEB	L 57-76	+4.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 28	@WIS	L 63-67	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 130
Feb 1	@PSU	L 75-77	-2.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 4	vsMSU	W 76-73	+8.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 149
Feb 8	vsMD	L 62-67	-10.5	L −15.5	138.5	U 129
Feb 14	@WASH	L 57-69	+6.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 126
Feb 17	@ORE	W 61-44	+3.5	W +20.5	136.5	U 105
Feb 21	vsRUTG	W 80-61	-8.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 24	@MICH	L 67-77	+22.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 28	vsUCLA	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 151
Mar 4	@IU	L 47-77	+7.5	L −22.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	vsNU	W 67-66	-4.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsRUTG	L 67-72	-6.5	L −11.5	135.5	O 139
Apr 1	vsBAY	L 48-67	+3.5	L −15.5	146.5	U 115

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

+13.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−18.5

CHST

W 66-54

−15.5

L 65-77

−13.5

STAN

L 68-72

−1.5

SCU

L 75-86

−5.5

W 73-64

+16.5

PUR

L 57-85

−8.5

TXSO

W 89-53

+14.5

CAM

W 78-50

+14.5

FDU

W 60-43

−8.5

W 84-78

+10.5

IOWA

W 70-67

+7.5

USC

L 69-70

−4.5

WIS

L 75-78

−1.5

ILL

L 67-77

+5.5

OSU

L 74-82

−0.5

NEB

L 57-76

−14.5

WIS

L 63-67

+5.5

PSU

L 75-77

−4.5

MSU

W 76-73

+11.5

L 62-67

−15.5

WASH

L 57-69

−5.5

ORE

W 61-44

+20.5

RUTG

W 80-61

+10.5

MICH

L 67-77

+12.5

UCLA

W 78-73

+6.5

L 47-77

−22.5

W 67-66

−3.5

RUTG

L 67-72

−11.5

BAY

L 48-67

−15.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

−7.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−9.5

CHST

W 66-54

−24.5

L 65-77

+1.5

STAN

L 68-72

−2.5

SCU

L 75-86

+22.5

W 73-64

−7.5

PUR

L 57-85

−1.5

TXSO

W 89-53

−2.5

CAM

W 78-50

−17.5

FDU

W 60-43

−36.5

W 84-78

+23.5

IOWA

W 70-67

+6.5

USC

L 69-70

−8.5

WIS

L 75-78

+6.5

ILL

L 67-77

+1.5

OSU

L 74-82

+12.5

NEB

L 57-76

−7.5

WIS

L 63-67

−16.5

PSU

L 75-77

+9.5

MSU

W 76-73

+12.5

L 62-67

−9.5

WASH

L 57-69

−12.5

ORE

W 61-44

−31.5

RUTG

W 80-61

+4.5

MICH

L 67-77

−1.5

UCLA

W 78-73

+14.5

L 47-77

−14.5

W 67-66

−0.5

RUTG

L 67-72

+3.5

BAY

L 48-67

−31.5

over 12under 21avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Illinois has the better starters

Position by position: Illinois 4, Minnesota 1, even 0

IllinoisBetterMinnesota

G S. Vaaks TR15.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 86

ILLSmall

G I. Asuma10.9 pts · 4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 64

G A. Stojakovic13.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1 ast Score 95

ILLBig

G M. Palmer TR4.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43

F D. Mirkovic13.3 pts · 8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 94

ILLSmall

F B. Durkin10.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F J. Davis5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 58

MINNSmall

F J. Crocker-Johnson13.4 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 81

C T. Ivisic10.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79

ILLSmall

F G. Grove4 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 59

IllinoisBetterMinnesota

ILL offense3rd of 366 · +11.7

Even

MINN defense22nd of 366 · +5.2

ILL defense8th of 366 · +8.4

ILLSmall

MINN offense120th of 366 · -2.8

Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players

ILLBig

Backcourt-0.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+6.7 · 3 players

ILLBig

Frontcourt+2.9 · 3 players

Bench+2.9 · 3 players

ILLBig

Bench-2.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestILL betterMINN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Illinois

Guards

S. Vaaks32 min · TRA. Stojakovic26 minB. Fagbemi4 minQ. McCoyNewQ. ColemanNewL. WilliamsNew

Forwards

D. Mirkovic30 minJ. Davis20 minZ. Ivisic17 minL. DavisNewZ. ZensNew

Centers

T. Ivisic25 minJ. Jakstys5 min

Minnesota

Guards

I. Asuma34 minM. Palmer18 min · TRK. Evans18 min · TRK. Shinholster13 minN. Groves6 min · TRW. Grady6 min · TR

Forwards

B. Durkin33 minJ. Crocker-Johnson32 minG. Grove21 minN. AndersonNew

Centers

M. Kordel4 min · TRC. MpoyiNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ILL83.2 #24

MINN69.4 #294

Points per possession

ILL1.25 #1

MINN1.10 #147

Pace (possessions)

ILL66.5 #292

MINN63.6 #362

Shooting

Effective FG%

ILL54.7 #46

MINN53.9 #69

3-point %

ILL34.5 #142

MINN34.1 #164

3-point attempt rate

ILL49.7 #15

MINN47.1 #31

Free throw rate

ILL33.2 #232

MINN35.8 #159

Possessions

Turnover rate

ILL13.1 #9

MINN16.6 #170

Offensive rebound rate

ILL39.2 #3

MINN26.8 #304

Assists per game

ILL14.2 #133

MINN17.0 #25

Defense

Points allowed

ILL68.8 #45

MINN68.5 #38

Points allowed per possession

ILL1.03 #61

MINN1.07 #139

Opponent effective FG%

ILL47.3 #26

MINN51.9 #207

Opponent 3-point %

ILL31.3 #38

MINN34.6 #229

Turnovers forced

ILL11.6 #365

MINN16.8 #168

Defensive rebound rate

ILL73.3 #28

MINN70.5 #137

Steals per game

ILL3.7 #365

MINN6.3 #197

Blocks per game

ILL4.6 #28

MINN2.7 #284

ILL		MINN
Scoring
83.2 #24	Points per game	69.4 #294
1.25 #1	Points per possession	1.10 #147
66.5 #292	Pace (possessions)	63.6 #362
Shooting
54.7 #46	Effective FG%	53.9 #69
34.5 #142	3-point %	34.1 #164
49.7 #15	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #31
33.2 #232	Free throw rate	35.8 #159
Possessions
13.1 #9	Turnover rate	16.6 #170
39.2 #3	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #304
14.2 #133	Assists per game	17.0 #25
Defense
68.8 #45	Points allowed	68.5 #38
1.03 #61	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #139
47.3 #26	Opponent effective FG%	51.9 #207
31.3 #38	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #229
11.6 #365	Turnovers forced	16.8 #168
73.3 #28	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #137
3.7 #365	Steals per game	6.3 #197
4.6 #28	Blocks per game	2.7 #284

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Illinois

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn62–71
Wvs Iowa71–59
Wvs Houston65–55
Wvs VCU76–55
Wvs Penn105–70

A week or more of rest.

Minnesota

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Baylor48–67
Lvs Rutgers67–72
Wvs Northwestern67–66
L@ Indiana47–77
Wvs UCLA78–73

A week or more of rest.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Minnesota Golden Gophers

What could decide it: ILL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Illinois

Minnesota

Illinois has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Illinois

Minnesota