1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. WAG @ SJU
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

Wagner Seahawks at St. John's Red Storm

Carnesecca Arena · at St John's
#354WAGWagner
@
#9SJUSt John's AP #13
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WAGThis seasonSJU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJU 94–53 · win probability SJU 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SJU has more of the edges

WAG 0, SJU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SJUBig
WAG offense vs SJU defense
Offense 359th of 366 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
WAG has played the 349th-hardest schedule, SJU the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SJUBig
SJU offense vs WAG defense
Offense 8th of 366 against a defense 293rd, on the model’s ratings
SJUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WAG 18.6%, SJU 14.4%. Forced: WAG 14.9%, SJU 19.1%
SJUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: WAG 32.4, SJU 40.2. Allowed: WAG 40.8, SJU 31.8
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: WAG plays 66.4 a game (299th fastest), SJU 70.8 (82nd). Faster games mean more points
SJUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: WAG 49.6 and allows 50.4; SJU 51.0 and allows 47.5
SJUSmall
Home court
SJU at home. This season: SJU 0-0 at home, WAG 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WAG 0%, SJU 22%. Transfers in: WAG 8, SJU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WAG 32.8%, SJU 35.2%. Defensive: WAG 70.5%, SJU 70.1%
Even
Three-pointers
WAG hits 36.6% and allows 34.3%; SJU hits 33.5% and allows 31.3%. Threes are 36.1% and 35.2% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SJU -41.7—
Total—146.9—
Projected score—WAG 52.6 · SJU 94.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSJU -24.7—
1H total68.7—
1H projected scoreWAG 22 · SJU 46.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

St John's has the better starters

Position by position: Wagner 0, St John's 3, even 2
WagnerBetterSt John's
G T. Bryant TR3.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 8
SJUBig
G T. Yessoufou TR17.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96
G C. Estevez TR3.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14
SJUBig
G I. Jackson9.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 93
G R. Pettis TR1.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
No call
F K. Hall TR19.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 98
F K. Watson TR4.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 31
SJUBig
F D. Freeman TR16.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 92
C B. Smith TR1.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F R. Bailey TR8.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
WagnerBetterSt John's
WAG offense359th of 366 · -14.0
SJUBig
SJU defense11th of 366 · +7.0
WAG defense293rd of 366 · -7.4
SJUBig
SJU offense8th of 366 · +10.5
Backcourt-3.1 · 3 players
SJUBig
Backcourt+6.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
SJUBig
Frontcourt+12.5 · 3 players
Bench-1.9 · 3 players
Even
Bench-1.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWAG betterSJU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Wagner
Guards
T. Bryant14 min · TRC. Estevez12 min · TRR. Pettis10 min · TRL. McGradyNewJ. CurtisNewG. EdwardsNew
Forwards
K. Watson12 min · TRT. Jones5 min · TRA. RodriguezNewD. KabaNewF. HassanNew
Centers
B. Smith8 min · TRY. Singar8 min · TRW. Patterson4 min · TR
St John's
Guards
T. Yessoufou33 min · TRI. Jackson18 minK. Cuffe16 min · TRA. Brown15 min · TRL. Liotopoulos8 minC. Pohto5 min
Forwards
K. Hall34 min · TRD. Freeman31 min · TRR. Bailey19 min · TRR. Prey11 minZ. MaronkaNewB. SaneNew
Centers
T. EdemaNewL. StojkovicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WAGSJU
Scoring
69.6 #292Points per game80.9 #45
1.05 #250Points per possession1.14 #68
66.4 #299Pace (possessions)70.8 #82
Shooting
49.6 #262Effective FG%51.0 #192
36.6 #363-point %33.5 #197
36.1 #2493-point attempt rate35.2 #272
32.4 #252Free throw rate40.2 #57
Possessions
18.6 #303Turnover rate14.4 #38
32.8 #96Offensive rebound rate35.2 #43
11.9 #289Assists per game16.1 #44
Defense
72.7 #126Points allowed69.7 #59
1.09 #208Points allowed per possession0.98 #15
50.4 #123Opponent effective FG%47.5 #32
34.3 #202Opponent 3-point %31.3 #39
14.9 #295Turnovers forced19.1 #46
70.5 #139Defensive rebound rate70.1 #154
5.2 #321Steals per game7.7 #58
2.3 #320Blocks per game4.8 #22
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wagner

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island56–64
  • W@ C Connecticut70–60
  • Wvs Chicago St80–61
  • Wvs New Haven65–62
  • W@ Saint Francis Red Wolves65–56

A week or more of rest.

St John's

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke75–80
  • Wvs Kansas67–65
  • Wvs Northern Iowa79–53
  • Wvs UConn72–52
  • Wvs Seton Hall78–68

A week or more of rest.