Alabama Crimson Tide vs Houston Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 6:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · Neutral site

#15ALAAlabama AP #20

#2HOUHouston AP #10

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Alabama and Houston
ALA	This season	HOU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 84–76 · win probability HOU 75%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 159.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

ALA 1, HOU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ALABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ALA 36.0, HOU 26.3. Allowed: ALA 32.0, HOU 38.7

HOUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ALA 13.1%, HOU 12.8%. Forced: ALA 12.8%, HOU 20.7%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: ALA plays 74.7 a game (7th fastest), HOU 65.0 (346th). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ALA 32.4%, HOU 35.7%. Defensive: ALA 67.2%, HOU 69.7%

HOUSmall

HOU offense vs ALA defense

Offense 10th of 366 against a defense 54th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ALA 46%, HOU 26%. Transfers in: ALA 3, HOU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ALA 55.2 and allows 49.2; HOU 51.9 and allows 46.2

Even

Three-pointers

ALA hits 35.8% and allows 33.8%; HOU hits 34.7% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 54.3% and 40.7% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

ALA has played the 1st-hardest schedule, HOU the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

ALA offense vs HOU defense

Offense 2nd of 366 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HOU -7.9	—
Total	—	159.9	—
Projected score	—	ALA 76 · HOU 83.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOU -4.5	—
1H total	74.7	—
1H projected score	ALA 35.1 · HOU 39.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ALA WLWWL	16-19	46%	5-5	—
HOU WLWWL	19-18	51%	5-7	—

Venue/role: ALA neutral site; HOU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA OUOUU	19-16	54%	25-10
HOU UOUOU	15-22	41%	30-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
HOU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Alabama

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs SJU	W103–96WO

Houston

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs LSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ALA 3–0 HOUALA leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · ALA has won the last 3 meetings · ALA 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 26, 2024-25	ALA 85 vs HOU 80	HOU -3.5	ALA W
Dec 10, 2022-23	ALA 71 @ HOU 65	HOU -8.5	ALA W
Dec 11, 2021-22	HOU 82 @ ALA 83	ALA -3	HOU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama

35 games played

Straight up

25-10

71% wins

Against the spread

16-19

46% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-16

54% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1071%

W W L W L W W W W L W W W W L L W W L W L W W W W W W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1946%

L W L W L W W L W L L L W W L L W L L W L L W W L L L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1654%

U O U U O O O O U U O U O U O O O U U U O O O O U O O U U O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUND	W 91-62	-36.5	L −7.5	170.5	U 153
Nov 8	@SJU	W 103-96	+4.5	W +11.5	172.5	O 199
Nov 13	vsPUR	L 80-87	-3.5	L −10.5	172.5	U 167
Nov 19	vsILL	W 90-86	+2.5	W +6.5	180.5	U 176
Nov 24	vsGONZ	L 85-95	+4.5	L −5.5	178.5	O 180
Nov 25	vsUNLV	W 115-76	-13.5	W +25.5	181.5	O 191
Nov 26	vsMD	W 105-72	-14.5	W +18.5	166.5	O 177
Dec 3	vsCLEM	W 90-84	-8.5	L −2.5	165.5	O 174
Dec 7	vsUTSA	W 97-55	-33.5	W +8.5	171.5	U 152
Dec 13	vsARIZ	L 75-96	+2.5	L −18.5	178.5	U 171
Dec 17	vsUSF	W 104-93	-14.5	L −3.5	178.5	O 197
Dec 21	vsKENN	W 92-81	-20.5	L −9.5	182.5	U 173
Dec 29	vsYALE	W 102-78	-15.5	W +8.5	171.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsUK	W 89-74	-5.5	W +9.5	173.5	U 163
Jan 7	@VAN	L 90-96	+3.5	L −2.5	176.5	O 186
Jan 10	vsTEX	L 88-92	-11.5	L −15.5	177.5	O 180
Jan 13	@MSST	W 97-82	-4.5	W +10.5	171.5	O 179
Jan 17	@OU	W 83-81	-5.5	L −3.5	177.5	U 164
Jan 24	vsTENN	L 73-79	-4.5	L −10.5	167.5	U 152
Jan 27	vsMIZ	W 90-64	-10.5	W +15.5	167.5	U 154
Feb 1	@FLA	L 77-100	+9.5	L −13.5	176.5	O 177
Feb 4	vsTA&M	W 100-97	-8.5	L −5.5	180.5	O 197
Feb 7	@AUB	W 96-92	+2.5	W +6.5	175.5	O 188
Feb 11	@MISS	W 93-74	-6.5	W +12.5	164.5	O 167
Feb 14	vsSC	W 89-75	-17.5	L −3.5	170.5	U 164
Feb 18	vsARK	W 117-115	-3.5	L −1.5	181.5	O 232
Feb 21	@LSU	W 90-83	-7.5	L −0.5	172.5	O 173
Feb 25	vsMSST	W 100-75	-12.5	W +12.5	176.5	U 175
Feb 28	@TENN	W 71-69	+5.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 140
Mar 3	@UGA	L 88-98	-1.5	L −11.5	179.5	O 186
Mar 7	vsAUB	W 96-84	-5.5	W +6.5	175.5	O 180
Mar 13	vsMISS	L 79-80	-12.5	L −13.5	166.5	U 159
Mar 20	vsHOF	W 90-70	-11.5	W +8.5	158.5	O 160
Mar 22	vsTTU	W 90-65	-1.5	W +23.5	164.5	U 155
Mar 27	vsMICH	L 77-90	+9.5	L −3.5	172.5	U 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 91-62

−7.5

SJU

W 103-96

+11.5

PUR

L 80-87

−10.5

ILL

W 90-86

+6.5

GONZ

L 85-95

−5.5

UNLV

W 115-76

+25.5

W 105-72

+18.5

CLEM

W 90-84

−2.5

UTSA

W 97-55

+8.5

ARIZ

L 75-96

−18.5

USF

W 104-93

−3.5

KENN

W 92-81

−9.5

YALE

W 102-78

+8.5

W 89-74

+9.5

VAN

L 90-96

−2.5

TEX

L 88-92

−15.5

MSST

W 97-82

+10.5

W 83-81

−3.5

TENN

L 73-79

−10.5

MIZ

W 90-64

+15.5

FLA

L 77-100

−13.5

TA&M

W 100-97

−5.5

AUB

W 96-92

+6.5

MISS

W 93-74

+12.5

W 89-75

−3.5

ARK

W 117-115

−1.5

LSU

W 90-83

−0.5

MSST

W 100-75

+12.5

TENN

W 71-69

+7.5

UGA

L 88-98

−11.5

AUB

W 96-84

+6.5

MISS

L 79-80

−13.5

HOF

W 90-70

+8.5

TTU

W 90-65

+23.5

MICH

L 77-90

−3.5

covered 16didn’t cover 19avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 91-62

−17.5

SJU

W 103-96

+26.5

PUR

L 80-87

−5.5

ILL

W 90-86

−4.5

GONZ

L 85-95

+1.5

UNLV

W 115-76

+9.5

W 105-72

+10.5

CLEM

W 90-84

+8.5

UTSA

W 97-55

−19.5

ARIZ

L 75-96

−7.5

USF

W 104-93

+18.5

KENN

W 92-81

−9.5

YALE

W 102-78

+8.5

W 89-74

−10.5

VAN

L 90-96

+9.5

TEX

L 88-92

+2.5

MSST

W 97-82

+7.5

W 83-81

−13.5

TENN

L 73-79

−15.5

MIZ

W 90-64

−13.5

FLA

L 77-100

+0.5

TA&M

W 100-97

+16.5

AUB

W 96-92

+12.5

MISS

W 93-74

+2.5

W 89-75

−6.5

ARK

W 117-115

+50.5

LSU

W 90-83

+0.5

MSST

W 100-75

−1.5

TENN

W 71-69

−22.5

UGA

L 88-98

+6.5

AUB

W 96-84

+4.5

MISS

L 79-80

−7.5

HOF

W 90-70

+1.5

TTU

W 90-65

−9.5

MICH

L 77-90

−5.5

over 19under 16avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Houston

37 games played

Straight up

30-7

81% wins

Against the spread

19-18

51% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-22

41% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

30-781%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L L L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1851%

L L W L W L L L W W W W L W L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2241%

U U U O O O O U O U O O U U U U U O O O U U U U U O U U O U O U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLEH	W 75-57	-36.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsTOW	W 65-48	-26.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 12	vsOAK	W 78-45	-30.5	W +2.5	138.5	U 123
Nov 16	vsAUB	W 73-72	-7.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 20	vsRID	W 91-45	-40.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 24	vsSYR	W 78-74	-14.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTENN	L 73-76	-2.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	vsND	W 66-56	-11.5	L −1.5	132.5	U 122
Dec 6	vsFSU	W 82-67	-12.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 10	vsJKST	W 80-38	-40.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	vsNOLA	W 99-57	-32.5	W +9.5	138.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsARK	W 94-85	-5.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsMTSU	W 69-60	-25.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 3	@CIN	W 67-60	-4.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 127
Jan 6	vsTTU	W 69-65	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 134
Jan 10	@BAY	W 77-55	-2.5	W +19.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 13	vsWVU	W 77-48	-13.5	W +15.5	127.5	U 125
Jan 18	vsASU	W 103-73	-18.5	W +11.5	142.5	O 176
Jan 24	@TTU	L 86-90	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 28	@TCU	W 79-70	-8.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 149
Jan 31	vsCIN	W 76-54	-13.5	W +8.5	135.5	U 130
Feb 4	vsUCF	W 79-55	-15.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 7	@BYU	W 77-66	-1.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 143
Feb 10	@UTAH	W 66-52	-16.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 118
Feb 14	vsKSU	W 78-64	-22.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 16	@ISU	L 67-70	+2.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 21	vsARIZ	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 139
Feb 23	@KU	L 56-69	-2.5	L −15.5	138.5	U 125
Feb 28	vsCOLO	W 102-62	-20.5	W +19.5	139.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsBAY	W 77-64	-12.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 141
Mar 7	@OKST	W 82-75	-13.5	L −6.5	151.5	O 157
Mar 12	vsBYU	W 73-66	-9.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 13	vsKU	W 69-47	-5.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Mar 14	vsARIZ	L 74-79	+1.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 153
Mar 19	vsIDHO	W 78-47	-24.5	W +6.5	137.5	U 125
Mar 21	vsTA&M	W 88-57	-10.5	W +20.5	142.5	O 145
Mar 26	vsILL	L 55-65	-2.5	L −12.5	141.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−18.5

TOW

W 65-48

−9.5

OAK

W 78-45

+2.5

AUB

W 73-72

−6.5

RID

W 91-45

+5.5

SYR

W 78-74

−10.5

TENN

L 73-76

−5.5

W 66-56

−1.5

FSU

W 82-67

+2.5

JKST

W 80-38

+1.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+9.5

ARK

W 94-85

+3.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−16.5

CIN

W 67-60

+2.5

TTU

W 69-65

−3.5

BAY

W 77-55

+19.5

WVU

W 77-48

+15.5

ASU

W 103-73

+11.5

TTU

L 86-90

−5.5

TCU

W 79-70

+0.5

CIN

W 76-54

+8.5

UCF

W 79-55

+8.5

BYU

W 77-66

+9.5

UTAH

W 66-52

−2.5

KSU

W 78-64

−8.5

ISU

L 67-70

−0.5

ARIZ

L 66-73

−13.5

L 56-69

−15.5

COLO

W 102-62

+19.5

BAY

W 77-64

+0.5

OKST

W 82-75

−6.5

BYU

W 73-66

−2.5

W 69-47

+16.5

ARIZ

L 74-79

−3.5

IDHO

W 78-47

+6.5

TA&M

W 88-57

+20.5

ILL

L 55-65

−12.5

covered 19didn’t cover 18avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−4.5

TOW

W 65-48

−17.5

OAK

W 78-45

−15.5

AUB

W 73-72

+4.5

RID

W 91-45

+1.5

SYR

W 78-74

+11.5

TENN

L 73-76

+12.5

W 66-56

−10.5

FSU

W 82-67

+0.5

JKST

W 80-38

−19.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+17.5

ARK

W 94-85

+32.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−9.5

CIN

W 67-60

−8.5

TTU

W 69-65

−8.5

BAY

W 77-55

−10.5

WVU

W 77-48

−2.5

ASU

W 103-73

+33.5

TTU

L 86-90

+34.5

TCU

W 79-70

+9.5

CIN

W 76-54

−5.5

UCF

W 79-55

−12.5

BYU

W 77-66

−8.5

UTAH

W 66-52

−24.5

KSU

W 78-64

−2.5

ISU

L 67-70

+2.5

ARIZ

L 66-73

−3.5

L 56-69

−13.5

COLO

W 102-62

+24.5

BAY

W 77-64

−2.5

OKST

W 82-75

+5.5

BYU

W 73-66

−7.5

W 69-47

−23.5

ARIZ

L 74-79

+14.5

IDHO

W 78-47

−12.5

TA&M

W 88-57

+2.5

ILL

L 55-65

−21.5

over 15under 22avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Houston has the better starters

Position by position: Alabama 0, Houston 2, even 3

AlabamaBetterHouston

G A. Holloway16.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

Even

G C. Hadnot TR20.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.6 ast Score 95

G A. Allen11.4 pts · 6.9 reb · 3.1 ast Score 94

Even

G D. Thomas TR15.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 6.5 ast Score 99

F D. Fielder TR14.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98

Even

F D. Gillespie TR17.9 pts · 11.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 94

F J. Davis-Fleming TR3.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59

HOUSmall

F B. East TR12.8 pts · 9.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 92

F B. Garrison TR4.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73

HOUSmall

F J. Tugler8.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 96

AlabamaBetterHouston

ALA offense2nd of 366 · +13.7

Even

HOU defense1st of 366 · +13.2

ALA defense54th of 366 · +1.5

Even

HOU offense10th of 366 · +10.1

Backcourt+8.7 · 2 players

HOUSmall

Backcourt+10.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.2 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+0.5 · 4 players

HOUBig

Bench+3.6 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestALA betterHOU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Alabama

Guards

A. Holloway28 minA. Allen28 minP. Murphy3 minC. CloerNewQ. SamuelsNewA. DiazNew

Forwards

D. Fielder24 min · TRJ. Davis-Fleming20 min · TRB. Garrison16 min · TRL. Jemison16 minK. Bristow13 minJ. RichardsonNew

Centers

C. Onyejiaka6 minT. St. LouisNew

Houston

Guards

C. Hadnot35 min · TRD. Thomas29 min · TRC. Weaver21 min · TRM. Miller12 minK. Jefferson4 minB. JacksonNew

Forwards

D. Gillespie33 min · TRB. East24 min · TRJ. Tugler24 minC. McCarty12 min

Centers

A. DianeNewD. SilimanaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ALA91.2 #1

HOU76.9 #119

Points per possession

ALA1.22 #5

HOU1.18 #36

Pace (possessions)

ALA74.7 #7

HOU65.0 #346

Shooting

Effective FG%

ALA55.2 #34

HOU51.9 #150

3-point %

ALA35.8 #66

HOU34.7 #134

3-point attempt rate

ALA54.3 #1

HOU40.7 #153

Free throw rate

ALA36.0 #150

HOU26.3 #355

Possessions

Turnover rate

ALA13.1 #10

HOU12.8 #3

Offensive rebound rate

ALA32.4 #111

HOU35.7 #32

Assists per game

ALA16.3 #39

HOU14.6 #111

Defense

Points allowed

ALA82.7 #343

HOU62.3 #1

Points allowed per possession

ALA1.11 #232

HOU0.96 #5

Opponent effective FG%

ALA49.2 #73

HOU46.2 #12

Opponent 3-point %

ALA33.8 #170

HOU31.6 #49

Turnovers forced

ALA12.8 #361

HOU20.7 #14

Defensive rebound rate

ALA67.2 #295

HOU69.7 #173

Steals per game

ALA6.4 #186

HOU7.5 #75

Blocks per game

ALA5.0 #17

HOU3.8 #96

ALA		HOU
Scoring
91.2 #1	Points per game	76.9 #119
1.22 #5	Points per possession	1.18 #36
74.7 #7	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #346
Shooting
55.2 #34	Effective FG%	51.9 #150
35.8 #66	3-point %	34.7 #134
54.3 #1	3-point attempt rate	40.7 #153
36.0 #150	Free throw rate	26.3 #355
Possessions
13.1 #10	Turnover rate	12.8 #3
32.4 #111	Offensive rebound rate	35.7 #32
16.3 #39	Assists per game	14.6 #111
Defense
82.7 #343	Points allowed	62.3 #1
1.11 #232	Points allowed per possession	0.96 #5
49.2 #73	Opponent effective FG%	46.2 #12
33.8 #170	Opponent 3-point %	31.6 #49
12.8 #361	Turnovers forced	20.7 #14
67.2 #295	Defensive rebound rate	69.7 #173
6.4 #186	Steals per game	7.5 #75
5.0 #17	Blocks per game	3.8 #96

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alabama

25-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan77–90
Wvs Texas Tech90–65
Wvs Hofstra90–70
Lvs Ole Miss79–80
Wvs Auburn96–84

A week or more of rest.

Houston

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois55–65
Wvs Texas A&M88–57
Wvs Idaho78–47
Lvs Arizona74–79
Wvs Kansas69–47

A week or more of rest.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Houston Cougars

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama

Houston

Houston has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Alabama

Houston