Bucknell Bison at UMBC Retrievers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 6:00 PM ETChesapeake Employers Insurance Arena · at UMBC

#264UMBCUMBC

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucknell and UMBC
BUCK	This season	UMBC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UMBC 75–69 · win probability UMBC 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UMBC has more of the edges

BUCK 1, UMBC 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UMBCBig

Three-pointers

BUCK hits 30.6% and allows 37.0%; UMBC hits 36.1% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 42.8% and 38.8% of their shots

UMBCBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BUCK 48.5 and allows 54.7; UMBC 54.1 and allows 49.4

UMBCBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: BUCK 29.8, UMBC 34.1. Allowed: BUCK 35.3, UMBC 25.7

Context

Schedule so far

BUCK has played the 227th-hardest schedule, UMBC the 342nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

UMBCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BUCK 27.0%, UMBC 24.9%. Defensive: BUCK 68.7%, UMBC 74.2%

UMBCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BUCK 18.9%, UMBC 14.1%. Forced: BUCK 17.9%, UMBC 15.1%

UMBCSmall

Home court

UMBC at home. This season: UMBC 0-0 at home, BUCK 0-0 away

BUCKSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BUCK 39%, UMBC 11%. Transfers in: BUCK 2, UMBC 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

BUCK offense vs UMBC defense

Offense 317th of 366 against a defense 279th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: BUCK plays 67.7 a game (242nd fastest), UMBC 67.0 (278th). Faster games mean more points

Even

UMBC offense vs BUCK defense

Offense 255th of 366 against a defense 237th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UMBC -6.1	—
Total	—	144.3	—
Projected score	—	BUCK 69.1 · UMBC 75.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UMBC -3.5	—
1H total	67.5	—
1H projected score	BUCK 32 · UMBC 35.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUCK LWLWW	14-19	42%	7-10	—
UMBC WWWWL	19-12	61%	9-6	—

Venue/role: BUCK away; UMBC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUCK UOOUO	13-20	39%	10-23
UMBC UOOUO	14-17	45%	22-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUCK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
UMBC	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucknell

No more games listed yet.

UMBC

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ WAG	W71–70LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BUCK 0–1 UMBCUMBC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · BUCK 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	UMBC 73 @ BUCK 66	BUCK -1.5	UMBC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucknell

33 games played

Straight up

10-23

30% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2330%

W W L L L L L L L L L W L L W L W W L L L L W W L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

W W L L L L W W L W L W L L W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2039%

U U U O U U U U O O U U U U U U U O O O U O O U U O O U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEL	W 78-70	-2.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 7	@MSM	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@PRIN	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 14	vsHOF	L 77-83	+4.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 17	@PITT	L 50-84	+16.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	@SJU	L 49-97	+28.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsBGSU	L 66-71	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsBUF	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsCOR	L 72-101	+5.5	L −23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 3	@AKR	L 77-97	+23.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 174
Dec 6	vsUMBC	L 66-73	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 9	@RID	W 51-38	-2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 20	@IOWA	L 39-94	+25.5	L −29.5	133.5	U 133
Dec 31	@HC	L 58-65	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsLEH	W 72-65	-4.5	W +2.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 7	@NAVY	L 55-76	+8.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsL-MD	W 70-67	-6.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsLAF	W 76-69	-2.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	@COLG	L 76-95	+8.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 21	vsARMY	L 84-87	-4.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 171
Jan 24	@L-MD	L 62-67	+2.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 129
Jan 28	@LAF	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBU	W 103-97	+1.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 200
Feb 4	@AMER	W 60-59	+7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	vsCOLG	L 59-78	+5.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 9	vsNAVY	L 60-76	+6.5	L −9.5	135.5	O 136
Feb 14	@BU	L 69-82	+5.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsAMER	L 57-75	+3.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	vsHC	L 63-72	-2.5	L −11.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 25	@ARMY	W 75-73	+2.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 148
Feb 28	@LEH	L 79-89	+5.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 168
Mar 3	vsARMY	W 65-55	-1.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NAVY	L 69-74	+15.5	W +10.5	133.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

+5.5

MSM

W 73-62

+12.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−5.5

HOF

L 77-83

−1.5

PITT

L 50-84

−17.5

SJU

L 49-97

−19.5

BGSU

L 66-71

+5.5

BUF

L 71-73

+2.5

COR

L 72-101

−23.5

AKR

L 77-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−8.5

RID

W 51-38

+10.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−29.5

L 58-65

−8.5

LEH

W 72-65

+2.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−12.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−3.5

LAF

W 76-69

+4.5

COLG

L 76-95

−10.5

ARMY

L 84-87

−7.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−2.5

LAF

L 79-81

+2.5

W 103-97

+7.5

AMER

W 60-59

+8.5

COLG

L 59-78

−13.5

NAVY

L 60-76

−9.5

L 69-82

−7.5

AMER

L 57-75

−14.5

L 63-72

−11.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+4.5

LEH

L 79-89

−4.5

ARMY

W 65-55

+8.5

NAVY

L 69-74

+10.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

−1.5

MSM

W 73-62

−8.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−10.5

HOF

L 77-83

+20.5

PITT

L 50-84

−7.5

SJU

L 49-97

−12.5

BGSU

L 66-71

−7.5

BUF

L 71-73

−2.5

COR

L 72-101

+13.5

AKR

L 77-97

+16.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−4.5

RID

W 51-38

−46.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−0.5

L 58-65

−10.5

LEH

W 72-65

−0.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−6.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−6.5

LAF

W 76-69

+7.5

COLG

L 76-95

+31.5

ARMY

L 84-87

+26.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−18.5

LAF

L 79-81

+21.5

W 103-97

+61.5

AMER

W 60-59

−22.5

COLG

L 59-78

−4.5

NAVY

L 60-76

+0.5

L 69-82

+13.5

AMER

L 57-75

−8.5

L 63-72

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+5.5

LEH

L 79-89

+29.5

ARMY

W 65-55

−24.5

NAVY

L 69-74

+9.5

over 13under 20avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

UMBC

31 games played

Straight up

22-9

71% wins

Against the spread

19-12

61% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-971%

L W W L W L W L L L W W W L W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1261%

W L L L W W W L L L W L L L W W W L W W W W W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

U U O U U O U O U O O U O O U O U U U O O O U U U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@DAY	L 71-77	+25.5	W +19.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 11	@MORG	W 81-79	-4.5	L −2.5	162.5	U 160
Nov 16	vsWAG	W 71-70	-6.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 19	@GW	L 52-89	+22.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsDSU	W 71-57	-13.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 128
Dec 3	@GTWN	L 81-90	+19.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 171
Dec 6	@BUCK	W 73-66	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 9	vsBUF	L 79-83	+3.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 162
Dec 12	vsARMY	L 60-63	-7.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 123
Dec 21	@USF	L 69-94	+22.5	L −2.5	160.5	O 163
Dec 29	@COPP	W 93-59	-10.5	W +23.5	148.5	O 152
Jan 8	vsME	W 69-62	-7.5	L −0.5	133.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsUNH	W 75-74	-6.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 15	@BRY	L 74-79	-1.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 153
Jan 19	@BING	W 78-60	-4.5	W +13.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 22	vsNJIT	W 87-74	-6.5	W +6.5	143.5	O 161
Jan 24	vsUML	W 79-56	-2.5	W +20.5	151.5	U 135
Jan 29	@UVM	L 55-64	+8.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 119
Jan 31	@UALB	W 68-65	-1.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 133
Feb 5	vsBING	W 79-62	-11.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 141
Feb 12	@ME	W 78-62	-3.5	W +12.5	135.5	O 140
Feb 14	@UNH	W 85-63	-2.5	W +19.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 19	vsUVM	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 137
Feb 21	vsUALB	W 66-62	-7.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 128
Feb 26	vsBRY	W 70-58	-11.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 128
Feb 28	@UML	W 84-60	-2.5	W +21.5	150.5	U 144
Mar 3	@NJIT	W 91-52	-4.5	W +34.5	143.5	U 143
Mar 7	vsUNH	W 84-69	-12.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 153
Mar 10	vsUML	W 91-69	-7.5	W +14.5	147.5	O 160
Mar 14	vsUVM	W 74-59	-1.5	W +13.5	134.5	U 133
Mar 17	vsHOW	L 83-86	+1.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAY

L 71-77

+19.5

MORG

W 81-79

−2.5

WAG

W 71-70

−5.5

L 52-89

−14.5

DSU

W 71-57

+0.5

GTWN

L 81-90

+10.5

BUCK

W 73-66

+8.5

BUF

L 79-83

−0.5

ARMY

L 60-63

−10.5

USF

L 69-94

−2.5

COPP

W 93-59

+23.5

W 69-62

−0.5

UNH

W 75-74

−5.5

BRY

L 74-79

−6.5

BING

W 78-60

+13.5

NJIT

W 87-74

+6.5

UML

W 79-56

+20.5

UVM

L 55-64

−0.5

UALB

W 68-65

+1.5

BING

W 79-62

+5.5

W 78-62

+12.5

UNH

W 85-63

+19.5

UVM

W 75-62

+14.5

UALB

W 66-62

−3.5

BRY

W 70-58

+0.5

UML

W 84-60

+21.5

NJIT

W 91-52

+34.5

UNH

W 84-69

+2.5

UML

W 91-69

+14.5

UVM

W 74-59

+13.5

HOW

L 83-86

−1.5

covered 19didn’t cover 12avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAY

L 71-77

−6.5

MORG

W 81-79

−2.5

WAG

W 71-70

+0.5

L 52-89

−19.5

DSU

W 71-57

−10.5

GTWN

L 81-90

+21.5

BUCK

W 73-66

−4.5

BUF

L 79-83

+16.5

ARMY

L 60-63

−23.5

USF

L 69-94

+2.5

COPP

W 93-59

+3.5

W 69-62

−2.5

UNH

W 75-74

+5.5

BRY

L 74-79

+17.5

BING

W 78-60

−2.5

NJIT

W 87-74

+17.5

UML

W 79-56

−16.5

UVM

L 55-64

−22.5

UALB

W 68-65

−8.5

BING

W 79-62

+2.5

W 78-62

+4.5

UNH

W 85-63

+1.5

UVM

W 75-62

−5.5

UALB

W 66-62

−16.5

BRY

W 70-58

−10.5

UML

W 84-60

−6.5

NJIT

W 91-52

−0.5

UNH

W 84-69

+10.5

UML

W 91-69

+12.5

UVM

W 74-59

−1.5

HOW

L 83-86

+25.5

over 14under 17avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UMBC has the better starters

Position by position: Bucknell 1, UMBC 2, even 2

BucknellBetterUMBC

G J. Williams7.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 23

UMBCBig

G F. Burton TR14.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 63

G A. Pachucki5.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 25

BUCKSmall

G A. Cross TR3.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1

G K. Marshall TR3.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

No call

G D. Ceaser4.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

G J. Meachem1.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 2

UMBCSmall

F R. Jacobs4.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 24

F L. Soroa Schaller TR5.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 13

No call

F R. Ciunys NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

BucknellBetterUMBC

BUCK offense317th of 366 · -10.4

Even

UMBC defense279th of 366 · -7.0

BUCK defense237th of 366 · -6.2

Even

UMBC offense255th of 366 · -7.8

Backcourt-6.2 · 4 players

UMBCBig

Backcourt-2.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players

Bench-0.9 · 3 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestBUCK betterUMBC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucknell

Guards

J. Williams33 minA. Pachucki21 minK. Marshall17 min · TRJ. Meachem10 minM. Lange3 minR. LamunoNew

Forwards

L. Soroa Schaller21 min · TRP. O'Brien10 minK. Welch2 minE. Marten-ConeyNewL. BergsengNewA. RousseauNew

Centers

D. KennardNew

UMBC

Guards

F. Burton32 min · TRA. Cross16 min · TRD. Ceaser8 minJ. RisticNewJ. ReynoldsNewT. SlatingNew

Forwards

R. Jacobs15 minR. CiunysNewA. BarryNewJ. NdongNewS. HuanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BUCK67.4 #327

UMBC75.7 #149

Points per possession

BUCK0.99 #332

UMBC1.13 #85

Pace (possessions)

BUCK67.7 #242

UMBC67.0 #278

Shooting

Effective FG%

BUCK48.5 #304

UMBC54.1 #64

3-point %

BUCK30.6 #328

UMBC36.1 #55

3-point attempt rate

BUCK42.8 #123

UMBC38.8 #195

Free throw rate

BUCK29.8 #314

UMBC34.1 #205

Possessions

Turnover rate

BUCK18.9 #319

UMBC14.1 #25

Offensive rebound rate

BUCK27.0 #295

UMBC24.9 #342

Assists per game

BUCK12.7 #235

UMBC11.9 #291

Defense

Points allowed

BUCK76.3 #226

UMBC68.5 #41

Points allowed per possession

BUCK1.13 #289

UMBC1.02 #46

Opponent effective FG%

BUCK54.7 #323

UMBC49.4 #79

Opponent 3-point %

BUCK37.0 #344

UMBC32.7 #98

Turnovers forced

BUCK17.9 #100

UMBC15.1 #283

Defensive rebound rate

BUCK68.7 #216

UMBC74.2 #18

Steals per game

BUCK7.2 #105

UMBC4.9 #338

Blocks per game

BUCK1.8 #354

UMBC2.4 #314

BUCK		UMBC
Scoring
67.4 #327	Points per game	75.7 #149
0.99 #332	Points per possession	1.13 #85
67.7 #242	Pace (possessions)	67.0 #278
Shooting
48.5 #304	Effective FG%	54.1 #64
30.6 #328	3-point %	36.1 #55
42.8 #123	3-point attempt rate	38.8 #195
29.8 #314	Free throw rate	34.1 #205
Possessions
18.9 #319	Turnover rate	14.1 #25
27.0 #295	Offensive rebound rate	24.9 #342
12.7 #235	Assists per game	11.9 #291
Defense
76.3 #226	Points allowed	68.5 #41
1.13 #289	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #46
54.7 #323	Opponent effective FG%	49.4 #79
37.0 #344	Opponent 3-point %	32.7 #98
17.9 #100	Turnovers forced	15.1 #283
68.7 #216	Defensive rebound rate	74.2 #18
7.2 #105	Steals per game	4.9 #338
1.8 #354	Blocks per game	2.4 #314

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucknell

10-23 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Navy69–74
Wvs Army65–55
L@ Lehigh79–89
W@ Army75–73
Lvs Holy Cross63–72

A week or more of rest.

UMBC

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard83–86
Wvs Vermont74–59
Wvs UMass Lowell91–69
Wvs New Hampshire84–69
W@ NJIT91–52

A week or more of rest.

Bucknell Bison at UMBC Retrievers

What could decide it: UMBC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Bucknell

UMBC

UMBC has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucknell

UMBC