1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. UMBC @ WAG
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

UMBC Retrievers at Wagner Seahawks

Spiro Sports Center · at Wagner
#264UMBCUMBC
@
#354WAGWagner
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UMBCThis seasonWAG
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UMBC 73–69 · win probability UMBC 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 142.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UMBC has more of the edges

UMBC 4, WAG 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UMBCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UMBC 34.1, WAG 32.4. Allowed: UMBC 25.7, WAG 40.8
UMBCBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UMBC 14.1%, WAG 18.6%. Forced: UMBC 15.1%, WAG 14.9%
UMBCBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UMBC 54.1 and allows 49.4; WAG 49.6 and allows 50.4
UMBCSmall
WAG offense vs UMBC defense
Offense 359th of 366 against a defense 279th, on the model’s ratings
WAGSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UMBC 24.9%, WAG 32.8%. Defensive: UMBC 74.2%, WAG 70.5%
WAGSmall
Home court
WAG at home. This season: WAG 0-0 at home, UMBC 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
UMBC hits 36.1% and allows 32.7%; WAG hits 36.6% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 38.8% and 36.1% of their shots
Even
UMBC offense vs WAG defense
Offense 255th of 366 against a defense 293rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UMBC 11%, WAG 0%. Transfers in: UMBC 2, WAG 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UMBC plays 67.0 a game (278th fastest), WAG 66.4 (299th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
UMBC has played the 342nd-hardest schedule, WAG the 349th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UMBC -3.3—
Total—142.0—
Projected score—UMBC 72.6 · WAG 69.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUMBC -2.1—
1H total66.5—
1H projected scoreUMBC 34.3 · WAG 32.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UMBC has the better starters

Position by position: UMBC 1, Wagner 0, even 4
UMBCBetterWagner
G F. Burton TR14.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 63
UMBCBig
G T. Bryant TR3.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 8
G A. Cross TR3.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1
Even
G C. Estevez TR3.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14
G D. Ceaser4.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Pettis TR1.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
F R. Jacobs4.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 24
Even
F K. Watson TR4.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 31
F R. Ciunys NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
C B. Smith TR1.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
UMBCBetterWagner
UMBC offense255th of 366 · -7.8
Even
WAG defense293rd of 366 · -7.4
UMBC defense279th of 366 · -7.0
UMBCSmall
WAG offense359th of 366 · -14.0
Backcourt-2.9 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-3.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.9 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUMBC betterWAG betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UMBC
Guards
F. Burton32 min · TRA. Cross16 min · TRD. Ceaser8 minJ. RisticNewJ. ReynoldsNewT. SlatingNew
Forwards
R. Jacobs15 minR. CiunysNewA. BarryNewJ. NdongNewS. HuanNew
Wagner
Guards
T. Bryant14 min · TRC. Estevez12 min · TRR. Pettis10 min · TRL. McGradyNewJ. CurtisNewG. EdwardsNew
Forwards
K. Watson12 min · TRT. Jones5 min · TRA. RodriguezNewD. KabaNewF. HassanNew
Centers
B. Smith8 min · TRY. Singar8 min · TRW. Patterson4 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UMBCWAG
Scoring
75.7 #149Points per game69.6 #292
1.13 #85Points per possession1.05 #250
67.0 #278Pace (possessions)66.4 #299
Shooting
54.1 #64Effective FG%49.6 #262
36.1 #553-point %36.6 #36
38.8 #1953-point attempt rate36.1 #249
34.1 #205Free throw rate32.4 #252
Possessions
14.1 #25Turnover rate18.6 #303
24.9 #342Offensive rebound rate32.8 #96
11.9 #291Assists per game11.9 #289
Defense
68.5 #41Points allowed72.7 #126
1.02 #46Points allowed per possession1.09 #208
49.4 #79Opponent effective FG%50.4 #123
32.7 #98Opponent 3-point %34.3 #202
15.1 #283Turnovers forced14.9 #295
74.2 #18Defensive rebound rate70.5 #139
4.9 #338Steals per game5.2 #321
2.4 #314Blocks per game2.3 #320
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMBC

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard83–86
  • Wvs Vermont74–59
  • Wvs UMass Lowell91–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–69
  • W@ NJIT91–52

A week or more of rest.

Wagner

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island56–64
  • W@ C Connecticut70–60
  • Wvs Chicago St80–61
  • Wvs New Haven65–62
  • W@ Saint Francis Red Wolves65–56

A week or more of rest.