Longwood Lancers at Delaware State Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 12:00 AM ETMemorial Hall (DE) · at Delaware St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Longwood and Delaware St
LONG	This season	DSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LONG 76–68 · win probability LONG 77%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LONG has more of the edges

LONG 4, DSU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LONGBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LONG 34.6%, DSU 27.7%. Defensive: LONG 72.3%, DSU 68.0%

LONGBig

LONG offense vs DSU defense

Offense 182nd of 366 against a defense 307th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: LONG plays 71.5 a game (54th fastest), DSU 66.7 (290th). Faster games mean more points

LONGBig

DSU offense vs LONG defense

Offense 354th of 366 against a defense 242nd, on the model’s ratings

LONGSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LONG 41.4, DSU 34.1. Allowed: LONG 42.1, DSU 40.5

DSUSmall

Home court

DSU at home. This season: DSU 0-0 at home, LONG 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LONG 49.7 and allows 53.8; DSU 42.9 and allows 52.9

Context

Schedule so far

LONG has played the 330th-hardest schedule, DSU the 354th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LONG 28%, DSU 41%. Transfers in: LONG 6, DSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LONG 19.2%, DSU 19.8%. Forced: LONG 19.7%, DSU 19.6%

Even

Three-pointers

LONG hits 31.4% and allows 33.8%; DSU hits 28.4% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 34.8% and 28.9% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LONG -8.5	—
Total	—	144.3	—
Projected score	—	LONG 76.4 · DSU 67.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LONG -5.2	—
1H total	67.5	—
1H projected score	LONG 36.3 · DSU 31.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LONG WLWWL	13-16	45%	6-8	—
DSU LLWWL	9-18	33%	4-5	—

Venue/role: LONG away; DSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LONG OUOOO	16-13	55%	13-16
DSU UUUOU	8-19	30%	5-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LONG	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
DSU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Longwood

No more games listed yet.

Delaware St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	@ CONN	L60–95LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LONG 4–1 DSULONG leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · LONG 2-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 13, 2025-26	DSU 81 @ LONG 76	LONG -13.5	DSU W
Dec 9, 2023-24	LONG 62 @ DSU 61	DSU +7.5	DSU W
Nov 24, 2023-24	DSU 82 @ LONG 84	LONG -13.5	DSU W
Dec 3, 2022-23	LONG 75 @ DSU 49	DSU +15.5	LONG W
Dec 4, 2021-22	DSU 58 @ LONG 78	LONG -17.5	LONG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Longwood

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-13

55% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

L W W L L L W L W L L W W L L W L W W L L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

L W L L L L L L L L W L W W L W W W W L L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1355%

U O O O O U U O O O U U U U U O O U O U U O U O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@PITT	L 60-78	+14.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 12	vsJMU	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	vsBING	W 90-82	-15.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 18	vsUMES	L 82-83	-17.5	L −18.5	138.5	O 165
Nov 23	@COLU	L 70-95	+3.5	L −21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsSIE	L 63-70	+5.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsME	W 65-61	-5.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 30	@AMER	L 66-92	+5.5	L −20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 6	@MORG	W 84-80	-5.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 164
Dec 13	vsDSU	L 76-81	-13.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 157
Dec 17	@WAKE	L 68-71	+24.5	W +21.5	163.5	U 139
Dec 20	@NCCU	W 74-72	-3.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsWIN	W 82-70	+7.5	W +19.5	161.5	U 152
Jan 3	@HPU	L 67-80	+16.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 147
Jan 7	@UNCA	L 61-72	+2.5	L −8.5	148.5	U 133
Jan 10	vsPRES	W 77-70	-3.5	W +3.5	139.5	O 147
Jan 17	@RAD	L 83-85	+4.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 21	vsGWEB	W 91-56	-16.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 147
Jan 23	vsCHSO	W 81-79	-1.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 160
Jan 29	@UPST	L 60-65	-1.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 125
Jan 31	vsHPU	L 59-71	+9.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 130
Feb 4	@GWEB	W 86-66	-12.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 7	@WIN	L 74-79	+10.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 12	vsUNCA	L 74-79	-2.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsUPST	W 82-75	-6.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@PRES	L 65-72	+2.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 21	@CHSO	W 107-96	+2.5	W +13.5	154.5	O 203
Feb 28	vsRAD	W 90-74	-1.5	W +14.5	154.5	O 164
Mar 6	vsUNCA	L 82-85	-1.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−3.5

JMU

W 82-72

+11.5

BING

W 90-82

−7.5

UMES

L 82-83

−18.5

COLU

L 70-95

−21.5

SIE

L 63-70

−1.5

W 65-61

−1.5

AMER

L 66-92

−20.5

MORG

W 84-80

−1.5

DSU

L 76-81

−18.5

WAKE

L 68-71

+21.5

NCCU

W 74-72

−1.5

WIN

W 82-70

+19.5

HPU

L 67-80

+3.5

UNCA

L 61-72

−8.5

PRES

W 77-70

+3.5

RAD

L 83-85

+2.5

GWEB

W 91-56

+18.5

CHSO

W 81-79

+0.5

UPST

L 60-65

−6.5

HPU

L 59-71

−2.5

GWEB

W 86-66

+7.5

WIN

L 74-79

+5.5

UNCA

L 74-79

−7.5

UPST

W 82-75

+0.5

PRES

L 65-72

−4.5

CHSO

W 107-96

+13.5

RAD

W 90-74

+14.5

UNCA

L 82-85

−4.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−7.5

JMU

W 82-72

+4.5

BING

W 90-82

+24.5

UMES

L 82-83

+26.5

COLU

L 70-95

+11.5

SIE

L 63-70

−12.5

W 65-61

−12.5

AMER

L 66-92

+9.5

MORG

W 84-80

+9.5

DSU

L 76-81

+17.5

WAKE

L 68-71

−24.5

NCCU

W 74-72

−0.5

WIN

W 82-70

−9.5

HPU

L 67-80

−13.5

UNCA

L 61-72

−15.5

PRES

W 77-70

+7.5

RAD

L 83-85

+10.5

GWEB

W 91-56

−8.5

CHSO

W 81-79

+3.5

UPST

L 60-65

−22.5

HPU

L 59-71

−26.5

GWEB

W 86-66

+4.5

WIN

L 74-79

−0.5

UNCA

L 74-79

+11.5

UPST

W 82-75

+9.5

PRES

L 65-72

−2.5

CHSO

W 107-96

+48.5

RAD

W 90-74

+9.5

UNCA

L 82-85

+26.5

over 16under 13avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Delaware St

27 games played

Straight up

5-22

19% wins

Against the spread

9-18

33% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-19

30% overs · avg −5.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2219%

L L L L L L L W W L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-1833%

L L L L L L W W W W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-1930%

U U U U U U U O O U U U U O O U U U O U O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@TEM	L 65-83	+16.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 8	@SYR	L 43-83	+26.5	L −13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 10	@NIA	L 57-68	+5.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 125
Nov 15	@NHVN	L 52-65	+1.5	L −11.5	130.5	U 117
Nov 23	@MIA	L 41-97	+34.5	L −21.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 29	@UMBC	L 57-71	+13.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 128
Dec 3	vsNAVY	L 59-66	+15.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 125
Dec 6	vsDEL	W 75-72	+7.5	W +10.5	129.5	O 147
Dec 13	@LONG	W 81-76	+13.5	W +18.5	139.5	O 157
Dec 18	@JOES	L 51-67	+17.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 29	@RUTG	L 50-65	+20.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 115
Jan 3	vsCOPP	L 51-53	-8.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 104
Jan 10	vsNORF	L 64-66	+4.5	W +2.5	132.5	U 130
Jan 12	@HOW	L 58-84	+8.5	L −17.5	129.5	O 142
Jan 17	vsMORG	L 79-80	-3.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 159
Jan 26	@SCST	L 64-70	+1.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 134
Jan 31	vsUMES	W 65-57	+2.5	W +10.5	128.5	U 122
Feb 7	@COPP	L 47-65	-1.5	L −19.5	132.5	U 112
Feb 9	@NCCU	L 63-72	+7.5	L −1.5	134.5	O 135
Feb 14	@NORF	L 58-75	+9.5	L −7.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 16	vsHOW	L 59-91	+11.5	L −20.5	131.5	O 150
Feb 21	@MORG	L 68-82	+5.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 150
Feb 28	vsNCCU	L 60-74	+2.5	L −11.5	135.5	U 134
Mar 2	vsSCST	L 59-61	-3.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 120
Mar 5	@UMES	W 57-56	+5.5	W +6.5	124.5	U 113
Mar 11	vsMORG	W 75-70	+3.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 145
Mar 13	vsNCCU	L 53-59	+3.5	L −2.5	131.5	U 112

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TEM

L 65-83

−1.5

SYR

L 43-83

−13.5

NIA

L 57-68

−5.5

NHVN

L 52-65

−11.5

MIA

L 41-97

−21.5

UMBC

L 57-71

−0.5

NAVY

L 59-66

+8.5

DEL

W 75-72

+10.5

LONG

W 81-76

+18.5

JOES

L 51-67

+1.5

RUTG

L 50-65

+5.5

COPP

L 51-53

−10.5

NORF

L 64-66

+2.5

HOW

L 58-84

−17.5

MORG

L 79-80

−4.5

SCST

L 64-70

−4.5

UMES

W 65-57

+10.5

COPP

L 47-65

−19.5

NCCU

L 63-72

−1.5

NORF

L 58-75

−7.5

HOW

L 59-91

−20.5

MORG

L 68-82

−8.5

NCCU

L 60-74

−11.5

SCST

L 59-61

−5.5

UMES

W 57-56

+6.5

MORG

W 75-70

+8.5

NCCU

L 53-59

−2.5

covered 9didn’t cover 18avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TEM

L 65-83

−6.5

SYR

L 43-83

−31.5

NIA

L 57-68

−12.5

NHVN

L 52-65

−13.5

MIA

L 41-97

−13.5

UMBC

L 57-71

−10.5

NAVY

L 59-66

−7.5

DEL

W 75-72

+17.5

LONG

W 81-76

+17.5

JOES

L 51-67

−19.5

RUTG

L 50-65

−20.5

COPP

L 51-53

−35.5

NORF

L 64-66

−2.5

HOW

L 58-84

+12.5

MORG

L 79-80

+22.5

SCST

L 64-70

−1.5

UMES

W 65-57

−6.5

COPP

L 47-65

−20.5

NCCU

L 63-72

+0.5

NORF

L 58-75

−1.5

HOW

L 59-91

+18.5

MORG

L 68-82

+6.5

NCCU

L 60-74

−1.5

SCST

L 59-61

−14.5

UMES

W 57-56

−11.5

MORG

W 75-70

+2.5

NCCU

L 53-59

−19.5

over 8under 19avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Longwood has the better starters

Position by position: Longwood 2, Delaware St 0, even 3

LongwoodBetterDelaware St

G M. Williams TR9.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.1 ast Score 65

LONGSmall

G R. Moore6.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1 ast Score 33

G A. Billups7.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 47

Even

G N. Muhammad TR7.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35

G J. Benard7.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 44

LONGSmall

G J. St Clair3.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 1 ast Score 14

G T. Robinson TR9.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.5 ast Score 64

Even

G D. Shepherd4.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 58

G E. Kelly2.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28

Even

F A. Santos6.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

LongwoodBetterDelaware St

LONG offense182nd of 366 · -5.7

LONGSmall

DSU defense307th of 366 · -7.9

LONG defense242nd of 366 · -6.4

LONGSmall

DSU offense354th of 366 · -13.2

Backcourt-1.7 · 5 players

LONGSmall

Backcourt-4.0 · 4 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-1.5 · 1 player

Bench-1.7 · 5 players

Even

Bench-2.0 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestLONG betterDSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Longwood

Guards

M. Williams24 min · TRA. Billups23 minJ. Benard20 minT. Robinson19 min · TRE. Kelly11 minB. Wesson2 min · TR

Forwards

D. Kauzonas10 min · TRL. Milosevic8 min · TRK. Musungay4 min · TRI. Kalala3 min

Delaware St

Guards

R. Moore22 minN. Muhammad18 min · TRJ. St Clair15 minD. Shepherd13 minN. ReedusNewI. SullivanNew

Forwards

A. Santos20 minM. Adamu13 minT. HawkinsNewG. EkukwaiNewJ. ObioraNewF. MuntariNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LONG75.9 #143

DSU59.7 #365

Points per possession

LONG1.07 #215

DSU0.89 #365

Pace (possessions)

LONG71.5 #54

DSU66.7 #290

Shooting

Effective FG%

LONG49.7 #254

DSU42.9 #364

3-point %

LONG31.4 #309

DSU28.4 #361

3-point attempt rate

LONG34.8 #279

DSU28.9 #357

Free throw rate

LONG41.4 #40

DSU34.1 #204

Possessions

Turnover rate

LONG19.2 #327

DSU19.8 #346

Offensive rebound rate

LONG34.6 #57

DSU27.7 #277

Assists per game

LONG12.2 #270

DSU9.7 #361

Defense

Points allowed

LONG76.2 #223

DSU71.4 #89

Points allowed per possession

LONG1.06 #113

DSU1.07 #143

Opponent effective FG%

LONG53.8 #293

DSU52.9 #265

Opponent 3-point %

LONG33.8 #171

DSU33.0 #123

Turnovers forced

LONG19.7 #31

DSU19.6 #32

Defensive rebound rate

LONG72.3 #58

DSU68.0 #257

Steals per game

LONG8.3 #28

DSU7.6 #73

Blocks per game

LONG2.0 #347

DSU1.8 #353

LONG		DSU
Scoring
75.9 #143	Points per game	59.7 #365
1.07 #215	Points per possession	0.89 #365
71.5 #54	Pace (possessions)	66.7 #290
Shooting
49.7 #254	Effective FG%	42.9 #364
31.4 #309	3-point %	28.4 #361
34.8 #279	3-point attempt rate	28.9 #357
41.4 #40	Free throw rate	34.1 #204
Possessions
19.2 #327	Turnover rate	19.8 #346
34.6 #57	Offensive rebound rate	27.7 #277
12.2 #270	Assists per game	9.7 #361
Defense
76.2 #223	Points allowed	71.4 #89
1.06 #113	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #143
53.8 #293	Opponent effective FG%	52.9 #265
33.8 #171	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #123
19.7 #31	Turnovers forced	19.6 #32
72.3 #58	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #257
8.3 #28	Steals per game	7.6 #73
2.0 #347	Blocks per game	1.8 #353

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Longwood

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNC Asheville82–85
Wvs Radford90–74
W@ Charleston So107–96
L@ Presbyterian65–72
Wvs SC Upstate82–75

A week or more of rest.

Delaware St

5-22 in 2025-26 overall · 3-13 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs NC Central53–59
Wvs Morgan St75–70
W@ MD Eastern57–56
Lvs SC State59–61
Lvs NC Central60–74

A week or more of rest.

Longwood Lancers at Delaware State Hornets

What could decide it: LONG has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Longwood

Delaware St

Longwood has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Longwood

Delaware St