Winthrop Eagles at Longwood Lancers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 31, 3:00 PM ETJoan Perry Brock Center · at Longwood · Conference game

#205WINWinthrop70final

Final

#218LONGLongwood82▲ winner

Closing lineWIN -7.5✓ LONG covered by 19.5

Closing total161.5Under by 9.5

Season records: Winthrop and Longwood
WIN	This season	LONG
5-7	Record	5-7
7-5	ATS	2-10
6-6	O/U	7-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WIN 85–79 LONG · ✗ WIN (71%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WIN	29	41	70
LONG	38	44	82

1st half: WIN 29, LONG 38 (LONG by 9). The model had WIN by 3.9 and a total of 76.9 (actual 67).

Team stats

WIN		LONG
20-62 32%	Field goals	30-58 52%
5-24 21%	3-pointers	7-18 39%
25-32 78%	Free throws	15-21 71%
35 17 off	Rebounds	41 14 off
12	Assists	12
6	Steals	4
2	Blocks	5
8	Turnovers	13
17	Fouls	28
30	Points in paint	44
2	Fast-break points	6

Players

WIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Logan Duncomb C	33	31	13	1	12-16	0-0
Daylen Berry G	33	7	5	4	1-12	0-5
Kareem Rozier G	31	8	1	3	3-11	2-6
Kody Clouet G	23	2	4	1	0-4	0-4
Tommy Kamarad F	23	5	2	0	0-4	0-1
Bench
Josh Meo G	16	6	0	1	2-4	2-3
Seifeldin Hendawy G	13	6	2	2	1-4	0-1
Pharrell Boyogueno G	12	3	2	0	1-3	1-3
Isaiah Wilson G	9	2	0	0	0-3	0-1
Ed Nnamoko F	7	0	2	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Kaleb Evans, Braylhan Thomas, Henry Harrison, Tai Hamilton, Cam Christy

LONG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Elijah Tucker F	31	12	9	1	5-10	0-0
Jacoi Hutchinson G	29	14	2	3	5-9	0-2
Emanuel Richards G	25	6	4	2	3-4	0-1
Johan Nziemi F	21	9	9	0	3-6	0-0
Alphonzo Billups III G	19	7	1	1	2-4	2-4
Bench
Redd Thompson Jr. G	22	15	0	2	5-10	2-5
Elijah Jones F	18	4	7	2	1-4	0-0
Jaylen Benard G	17	12	3	1	5-8	2-4
Elijah Kelly G	10	3	0	0	1-3	1-2
Jaylin Payne F	6	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Isaiah Kalala F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Gerald Burr III, Jerome Williams, Quadri Bashiru, KJ McClurg

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WIN -7.5	WIN -6.3	LONG +1.2	W LONG covered
Total	161.5	164.3	Over 2.8	L Under
Projected score	—	WIN 85.3 · LONG 79

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WIN -3.9	LONG -9.0
1H total	76.9	67
1H projected score	WIN 40.4 · LONG 36.5	WIN 29 · LONG 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIN WLLLL	7-5	58%	4-4	4-4
LONG LLLWL	2-10	17%	1-3	2-4

Venue/role: WIN away, as favorite; LONG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIN OOOOU	6-6	50%	5-7
LONG OOOUU	7-5	58%	5-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIN	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
LONG	4-6 40%	1-9 10%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

WIN 5–5 LONGSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · WIN has won the last 3 meetings · WIN 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 7, 2024-25	LONG 79 vs WIN 88	WIN -4.5	WIN W
Feb 27, 2024-25	WIN 85 @ LONG 59	LONG -1.5	WIN W
Jan 11, 2024-25	LONG 76 @ WIN 95	WIN -2.5	WIN W
Mar 8, 2023-24	LONG 69 vs WIN 56	WIN +1.5	LONG W
Feb 10, 2023-24	WIN 74 @ LONG 84	LONG -1.5	LONG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Winthrop

12 games played

Straight up

5-7

42% wins

Against the spread

7-5

58% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-6

50% overs · avg +4.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-742%

W L L W L W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-558%

W W L W W W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-650%

U O U O U U U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUC	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 7	@GMU	L 90-96	+9.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 11	@CCU	L 66-72	-2.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMER	W 105-69	-2.5	W +33.5	162.5	O 174
Nov 18	@ARK	L 83-84	+23.5	W +22.5	168.5	U 167
Nov 23	@JKST	W 80-62	-10.5	W +7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 25	@NEB	L 73-80	+14.5	W +7.5	166.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsSCST	W 101-79	-20.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 2	@LIU	W 94-92	-5.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsCCU	L 84-88	-16.5	L −20.5	153.5	O 172
Dec 18	@UND	L 88-90	-12.5	L −14.5	157.5	O 178
Dec 28	@TTU	L 57-87	+17.5	L −12.5	163.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

+3.5

GMU

L 90-96

+3.5

CCU

L 66-72

−8.5

MER

W 105-69

+33.5

ARK

L 83-84

+22.5

JKST

W 80-62

+7.5

NEB

L 73-80

+7.5

SCST

W 101-79

+1.5

LIU

W 94-92

−3.5

CCU

L 84-88

−20.5

UND

L 88-90

−14.5

TTU

L 57-87

−12.5

covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

−8.5

GMU

L 90-96

+39.5

CCU

L 66-72

−27.5

MER

W 105-69

+11.5

ARK

L 83-84

−1.5

JKST

W 80-62

−21.5

NEB

L 73-80

−13.5

SCST

W 101-79

+22.5

LIU

W 94-92

+32.5

CCU

L 84-88

+18.5

UND

L 88-90

+20.5

TTU

L 57-87

−19.5

over 6under 6avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Longwood

12 games played

Straight up

5-7

42% wins

Against the spread

2-10

17% covers · avg −5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-5

58% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-742%

L W W L L L W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-1017%

L W L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-558%

U O O O O U U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@PITT	L 60-78	+14.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 12	vsJMU	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	vsBING	W 90-82	-15.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 18	vsUMES	L 82-83	-17.5	L −18.5	138.5	O 165
Nov 23	@COLU	L 70-95	+3.5	L −21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsSIE	L 63-70	+5.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsME	W 65-61	-5.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 30	@AMER	L 66-92	+5.5	L −20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 6	@MORG	W 84-80	-5.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 164
Dec 13	vsDSU	L 76-81	-13.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 157
Dec 17	@WAKE	L 68-71	+24.5	W +21.5	163.5	U 139
Dec 20	@NCCU	W 74-72	-3.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−3.5

JMU

W 82-72

+11.5

BING

W 90-82

−7.5

UMES

L 82-83

−18.5

COLU

L 70-95

−21.5

SIE

L 63-70

−1.5

W 65-61

−1.5

AMER

L 66-92

−20.5

MORG

W 84-80

−1.5

DSU

L 76-81

−18.5

WAKE

L 68-71

+21.5

NCCU

W 74-72

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 10avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−7.5

JMU

W 82-72

+4.5

BING

W 90-82

+24.5

UMES

L 82-83

+26.5

COLU

L 70-95

+11.5

SIE

L 63-70

−12.5

W 65-61

−12.5

AMER

L 66-92

+9.5

MORG

W 84-80

+9.5

DSU

L 76-81

+17.5

WAKE

L 68-71

−24.5

NCCU

W 74-72

−0.5

over 7under 5avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Winthrop Eagles at Longwood Lancers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Winthrop

Longwood

Winthrop

Longwood