Bucknell Bison at Navy Midshipmen: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 5, 7:00 PM ETAlumni Hall (Navy) · at Navy · Conference game · Conference tournament

#299BUCKBucknell69final

Final

#199NAVYNavy74▲ winner

Closing lineNAVY -15.5✓ BUCK covered by 10.5

Closing total133.5Over by 9.5

Season records: Bucknell and Navy
BUCK	This season	NAVY
10-22	Record	23-6
13-19	ATS	21-8
12-20	O/U	12-17

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BUCK 63–76 NAVY · ✓ NAVY (88%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BUCK	39	30	69
NAVY	36	38	74

1st half: BUCK 39, NAVY 36 (BUCK by 3). The model had NAVY by 7.8 and a total of 64.9 (actual 75).

Team stats

BUCK		NAVY
26-61 43%	Field goals	24-47 51%
11-29 38%	3-pointers	11-23 48%
6-6 100%	Free throws	15-20 75%
33 14 off	Rebounds	28 7 off
16	Assists	19
7	Steals	9
0	Blocks	7
13	Turnovers	13
16	Fouls	8
28	Points in paint	18
0	Fast-break points	5

Players

BUCK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Amon Dorries C	40	18	5	4	8-14	0-2
Achile Spadone G	40	20	7	2	7-15	4-6
Jayden Williams G	38	5	6	5	1-10	1-5
Aleksander Pachucki G	38	11	6	2	4-10	3-9
Pat Curtin G	27	10	7	2	4-8	2-4
Bench
Quin Berger G	15	5	0	0	2-4	1-3
Jacob Meachem G	2	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kellen Welch, Brady Muller, Matt Lange, Grgur Brcic, Brandon McCreesh, Patrick O'Brien, Ruot Bijiek, Josh Fulton

NAVY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Austin Benigni G	40	14	4	3	4-8	2-3
Aidan Kehoe C	35	6	7	3	2-3	0-0
Jinwoo Kim G	30	14	4	3	5-8	4-7
Jordan Pennick G	26	12	2	4	2-7	1-4
Mike Woods F	22	12	2	3	6-8	0-0
Bench
Cam Cole G	24	16	5	2	5-10	4-8
Donovan Draper F	23	0	3	1	0-3	0-1

Did not play: Tobi Raji, Owen Gray, Cooper Jackson, C.J. Kearns, Matt Gaffney, Colin Pollock, Steven McLeod, Jerry Ashley Jr., Jordan McConnell, Luke Morgan, David Burnett, Davyn de Jongh and 6 more

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NAVY -15.5	NAVY -13.3	BUCK +2.2	W BUCK covered
Total	133.5	138.6	Over 5.1	W Over
Projected score	—	BUCK 62.7 · NAVY 75.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NAVY -7.8	BUCK -3.0
1H total	64.9	75
1H projected score	BUCK 28.6 · NAVY 36.3	BUCK 39 · NAVY 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUCK LLWLW	13-19	41%	6-10	8-14
NAVY WWWWW	21-8	72%	10-3	18-6

Venue/role: BUCK away, as underdog; NAVY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUCK UUOOU	12-20	38%	10-22
NAVY OUOUO	12-17	41%	23-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUCK	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NAVY	10-0 100%	10-0 100%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

BUCK 4–7 NAVYNAVY leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · NAVY has won the last 3 meetings · BUCK 4-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 9, 2025-26	NAVY 76 @ BUCK 60	BUCK +6.5	NAVY W
Jan 7, 2025-26	BUCK 55 @ NAVY 76	NAVY -8.5	NAVY W
Mar 9, 2024-25	NAVY 83 @ BUCK 77	BUCK -5.5	NAVY W
Feb 1, 2024-25	BUCK 85 @ NAVY 75	NAVY -3.5	BUCK W
Jan 18, 2024-25	NAVY 69 @ BUCK 73	BUCK -4.5	NAVY W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucknell

32 games played

Straight up

10-22

31% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-20

38% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2231%

W W L L L L L L L L L W L L W L W W L L L L W W L L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

W W L L L L W W L W L W L L W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-2038%

U U U O U U U U O O U U U U U U U O O O U O O U U O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEL	W 78-70	-2.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 7	@MSM	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@PRIN	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 14	vsHOF	L 77-83	+4.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 17	@PITT	L 50-84	+16.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	@SJU	L 49-97	+28.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsBGSU	L 66-71	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsBUF	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsCOR	L 72-101	+5.5	L −23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 3	@AKR	L 77-97	+23.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 174
Dec 6	vsUMBC	L 66-73	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 9	@RID	W 51-38	-2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 20	@IOWA	L 39-94	+25.5	L −29.5	133.5	U 133
Dec 31	@HC	L 58-65	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsLEH	W 72-65	-4.5	W +2.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 7	@NAVY	L 55-76	+8.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsL-MD	W 70-67	-6.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsLAF	W 76-69	-2.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	@COLG	L 76-95	+8.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 21	vsARMY	L 84-87	-4.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 171
Jan 24	@L-MD	L 62-67	+2.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 129
Jan 28	@LAF	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBU	W 103-97	+1.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 200
Feb 4	@AMER	W 60-59	+7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	vsCOLG	L 59-78	+5.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 9	vsNAVY	L 60-76	+6.5	L −9.5	135.5	O 136
Feb 14	@BU	L 69-82	+5.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsAMER	L 57-75	+3.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	vsHC	L 63-72	-2.5	L −11.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 25	@ARMY	W 75-73	+2.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 148
Feb 28	@LEH	L 79-89	+5.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 168
Mar 3	vsARMY	W 65-55	-1.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

+5.5

MSM

W 73-62

+12.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−5.5

HOF

L 77-83

−1.5

PITT

L 50-84

−17.5

SJU

L 49-97

−19.5

BGSU

L 66-71

+5.5

BUF

L 71-73

+2.5

COR

L 72-101

−23.5

AKR

L 77-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−8.5

RID

W 51-38

+10.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−29.5

L 58-65

−8.5

LEH

W 72-65

+2.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−12.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−3.5

LAF

W 76-69

+4.5

COLG

L 76-95

−10.5

ARMY

L 84-87

−7.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−2.5

LAF

L 79-81

+2.5

W 103-97

+7.5

AMER

W 60-59

+8.5

COLG

L 59-78

−13.5

NAVY

L 60-76

−9.5

L 69-82

−7.5

AMER

L 57-75

−14.5

L 63-72

−11.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+4.5

LEH

L 79-89

−4.5

ARMY

W 65-55

+8.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

−1.5

MSM

W 73-62

−8.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−10.5

HOF

L 77-83

+20.5

PITT

L 50-84

−7.5

SJU

L 49-97

−12.5

BGSU

L 66-71

−7.5

BUF

L 71-73

−2.5

COR

L 72-101

+13.5

AKR

L 77-97

+16.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−4.5

RID

W 51-38

−46.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−0.5

L 58-65

−10.5

LEH

W 72-65

−0.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−6.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−6.5

LAF

W 76-69

+7.5

COLG

L 76-95

+31.5

ARMY

L 84-87

+26.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−18.5

LAF

L 79-81

+21.5

W 103-97

+61.5

AMER

W 60-59

−22.5

COLG

L 59-78

−4.5

NAVY

L 60-76

+0.5

L 69-82

+13.5

AMER

L 57-75

−8.5

L 63-72

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+5.5

LEH

L 79-89

+29.5

ARMY

W 65-55

−24.5

over 12under 20avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Navy

29 games played

Straight up

23-6

79% wins

Against the spread

21-8

72% covers · avg +4.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-17

41% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-679%

W L L L W W L L W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W

13 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

21-872%

W L W W L W L L L L W W W W W L L W W W W W W W W W W W W

12 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-1741%

U O U U O U O U U U U O U U U U O O U U O U O O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PRES	W 76-55	-3.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 7	vsYALE	L 68-97	+5.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 165
Nov 11	@PSU	L 71-80	+11.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 18	@UNC	L 61-73	+26.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 134
Nov 22	vsNJIT	W 86-70	-17.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 26	vsGWEB	W 84-51	-10.5	W +22.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 28	@UNCW	L 57-87	+8.5	L −21.5	138.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsSELA	L 65-69	-3.5	L −7.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 3	@DSU	W 66-59	-15.5	L −8.5	132.5	U 125
Dec 7	vsAF	W 61-56	-9.5	L −4.5	133.5	U 117
Dec 19	vsCOPP	W 88-55	-20.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 143
Dec 31	vsBU	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	137.5	O 159
Jan 3	@HC	W 65-58	-5.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 123
Jan 7	vsBUCK	W 76-55	-8.5	W +12.5	137.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsLAF	W 76-50	-8.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 126
Jan 12	@AMER	L 51-65	-2.5	L −16.5	139.5	U 116
Jan 17	@LEH	W 82-79	-3.5	L −0.5	137.5	O 161
Jan 21	vsHC	W 85-68	-11.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 153
Jan 24	vsARMY	W 84-56	-10.5	W +17.5	143.5	U 140
Jan 28	@BU	W 58-50	-1.5	W +6.5	138.5	U 108
Jan 31	vsL-MD	W 87-71	-9.5	W +6.5	143.5	O 158
Feb 4	@LAF	W 65-50	-3.5	W +11.5	139.5	U 115
Feb 7	vsAMER	W 82-73	-4.5	W +4.5	134.5	O 155
Feb 9	@BUCK	W 76-60	-6.5	W +9.5	135.5	O 136
Feb 14	@COLG	W 84-80	+1.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 164
Feb 18	vsLEH	W 72-49	-9.5	W +13.5	139.5	U 121
Feb 21	@ARMY	W 81-63	-8.5	W +9.5	139.5	O 144
Feb 25	@L-MD	W 78-51	-6.5	W +20.5	147.5	U 129
Feb 28	vsCOLG	W 85-69	-6.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRES

W 76-55

+17.5

YALE

L 68-97

−23.5

PSU

L 71-80

+2.5

UNC

L 61-73

+14.5

NJIT

W 86-70

−1.5

GWEB

W 84-51

+22.5

UNCW

L 57-87

−21.5

SELA

L 65-69

−7.5

DSU

W 66-59

−8.5

W 61-56

−4.5

COPP

W 88-55

+12.5

W 82-77

+0.5

W 65-58

+1.5

BUCK

W 76-55

+12.5

LAF

W 76-50

+17.5

AMER

L 51-65

−16.5

LEH

W 82-79

−0.5

W 85-68

+5.5

ARMY

W 84-56

+17.5

W 58-50

+6.5

L-MD

W 87-71

+6.5

LAF

W 65-50

+11.5

AMER

W 82-73

+4.5

BUCK

W 76-60

+9.5

COLG

W 84-80

+5.5

LEH

W 72-49

+13.5

ARMY

W 81-63

+9.5

L-MD

W 78-51

+20.5

COLG

W 85-69

+9.5

covered 21didn’t cover 8avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRES

W 76-55

−10.5

YALE

L 68-97

+17.5

PSU

L 71-80

−4.5

UNC

L 61-73

−26.5

NJIT

W 86-70

+15.5

GWEB

W 84-51

−18.5

UNCW

L 57-87

+5.5

SELA

L 65-69

−2.5

DSU

W 66-59

−7.5

W 61-56

−16.5

COPP

W 88-55

−2.5

W 82-77

+21.5

W 65-58

−14.5

BUCK

W 76-55

−6.5

LAF

W 76-50

−15.5

AMER

L 51-65

−23.5

LEH

W 82-79

+23.5

W 85-68

+18.5

ARMY

W 84-56

−3.5

W 58-50

−30.5

L-MD

W 87-71

+14.5

LAF

W 65-50

−24.5

AMER

W 82-73

+20.5

BUCK

W 76-60

+0.5

COLG

W 84-80

+24.5

LEH

W 72-49

−18.5

ARMY

W 81-63

+4.5

L-MD

W 78-51

−18.5

COLG

W 85-69

+12.5

over 12under 17avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bucknell Bison at Navy Midshipmen

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Bucknell

Navy

Bucknell

Navy