M&T Bank Center at Gampel Pavilion · at UConn
#16KUKansas AP #17
@
#6CONNUConn AP #4
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
Season records: Kansas and UConn
KUThis seasonCONN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CONN 77–70 · win probability CONN 73%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 146.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CONN has more of the edges

KU 1, CONN 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
KUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: KU 32.2, CONN 29.9. Allowed: KU 27.4, CONN 40.7
CONNBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: KU 29.3%, CONN 35.7%. Defensive: KU 70.1%, CONN 71.2%
CONNSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: KU 15.6%, CONN 16.4%. Forced: KU 13.8%, CONN 17.8%
CONNSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: KU 9%, CONN 51%. Transfers in: KU 5, CONN 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
CONNSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: KU 51.2 and allows 45.0; CONN 54.3 and allows 45.7
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: KU plays 68.8 a game (193rd fastest), CONN 66.1 (307th). Faster games mean more points
CONNSmall
Home court
CONN at home. This season: CONN 0-0 at home, KU 0-0 away
Even
KU offense vs CONN defense
Offense 17th of 366 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
CONN offense vs KU defense
Offense 25th of 366 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
KU hits 34.6% and allows 30.6%; CONN hits 34.4% and allows 30.1%. Threes are 35.2% and 40.9% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
KU has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, CONN the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CONN -6.9—
Total—146.4—
Projected score—KU 69.8 · CONN 76.7

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadCONN -4.0—
1H total68.5—
1H projected scoreKU 32.3 · CONN 36.2—

Kansas has the better starters

Position by position: Kansas 1, UConn 0, even 4
KansasBetterUConn
G L. Blyden TR16.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.5 ast Score 85
Even
G N. Machowski TR17.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 80
G D. Parker TR18.6 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94
Even
G S. Demary10.1 pts · 4.5 reb · 5.9 ast Score 98
F K. Dawes TR12.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91
Even
G S. Ball12.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 87
F T. Kaufman-Renn TR14.2 pts · 8.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 98
Even
G B. Mullins12 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 88
C C. Reeves TR11 pts · 7.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 94
KUBig
G J. Nash TR5.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.1 ast Score 26
KansasBetterUConn
KU offense17th of 366 · +8.6
Even
CONN defense2nd of 366 · +11.5
KU defense15th of 366 · +6.3
Even
CONN offense25th of 366 · +7.1
Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players
CONNSmall
Backcourt+8.5 · 5 players
Frontcourt+13.0 · 3 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench+0.1 · 3 players
CONNBig
Bench+3.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestKU betterCONN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Kansas
Guards
L. Blyden34 min · TRD. Parker30 min · TRK. Rosario12 minW. Thengvall2 minT. StokesNewT. PerryNew
Forwards
K. Dawes31 min · TRT. Kaufman-Renn28 min · TRD. AdkinsNewA. RichmondNewG. MordiniNew
Centers
C. Reeves21 min · TRP. Mbiya5 min
UConn
Guards
N. Machowski35 min · TRS. Demary28 minS. Ball28 minB. Mullins28 minJ. Nash26 min · TRJ. CountyNew
Forwards
N. Khamenia20 min · TRI. Shaw18 min · TRJ. Ross18 minJ. RossNewC. LandrewNewE. AmosovNew
Centers
N. Hines18 min · TRO. Giltay15 min · TRE. Dzafic2 min · TR
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
KUCONN
Scoring
75.1 #161Points per game76.6 #129
1.09 #152Points per possession1.16 #52
68.8 #193Pace (possessions)66.1 #307
Shooting
51.2 #186Effective FG%54.3 #59
34.6 #1393-point %34.4 #150
35.2 #2683-point attempt rate40.9 #149
32.2 #255Free throw rate29.9 #313
Possessions
15.6 #111Turnover rate16.4 #163
29.3 #227Offensive rebound rate35.7 #30
13.9 #150Assists per game18.1 #9
Defense
69.1 #47Points allowed65.2 #6
1.00 #28Points allowed per possession0.99 #17
45.0 #2Opponent effective FG%45.7 #7
30.6 #24Opponent 3-point %30.1 #8
13.8 #340Turnovers forced17.8 #107
70.1 #152Defensive rebound rate71.2 #99
5.4 #310Steals per game6.8 #143
5.8 #6Blocks per game5.0 #15

Kansas

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs St John's65–67
  • Wvs CA Baptist68–60
  • Lvs Houston47–69
  • Wvs TCU78–73
  • Wvs Kansas St104–85

A week or more of rest.

UConn

34-6 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan63–69
  • Wvs Illinois71–62
  • Wvs Duke73–72
  • Wvs Michigan St67–63
  • Wvs UCLA73–57

A week or more of rest.