1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. GWEB @ WAKE
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

LJVM Coliseum · at Wake Forest
#348GWEBGardner-Webb
@
#89WAKEWake Forest
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GWEBThis seasonWAKE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WAKE 89–63 · win probability WAKE 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 151.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WAKE has more of the edges

GWEB 1, WAKE 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WAKEBig
WAKE offense vs GWEB defense
Offense 80th of 366 against a defense 357th, on the model’s ratings
WAKEBig
GWEB offense vs WAKE defense
Offense 318th of 366 against a defense 96th, on the model’s ratings
WAKEBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GWEB 19.8%, WAKE 15.5%. Forced: GWEB 15.3%, WAKE 17.7%
WAKEBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: GWEB 47.8 and allows 57.0; WAKE 52.7 and allows 51.8
WAKEBig
Three-pointers
GWEB hits 31.0% and allows 36.0%; WAKE hits 34.1% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 39.8% and 43.6% of their shots
WAKESmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GWEB 23.2%, WAKE 30.1%. Defensive: GWEB 63.4%, WAKE 67.0%
Context
Schedule so far
GWEB has played the 154th-hardest schedule, WAKE the 64th. A record against a soft schedule means less
WAKESmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GWEB 30.3, WAKE 35.2. Allowed: GWEB 35.3, WAKE 35.7
WAKESmall
Home court
WAKE at home. This season: WAKE 0-0 at home, GWEB 0-0 away
GWEBSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GWEB 35%, WAKE 9%. Transfers in: GWEB 3, WAKE 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: GWEB plays 70.8 a game (84th fastest), WAKE 70.2 (112th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WAKE -25.9—
Total—151.9—
Projected score—GWEB 63 · WAKE 88.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWAKE -15.3—
1H total71.0—
1H projected scoreGWEB 27.9 · WAKE 43.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Wake Forest has the better starters

Position by position: Gardner-Webb 0, Wake Forest 3, even 2
Gardner-WebbBetterWake Forest
G J. Hudson10.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 62
WAKESmall
G K. Kennedy TR18.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 4.2 ast Score 91
G A. Talbert6.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10
WAKEBig
G J. Ray TR11.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 56
G J. Ferere6.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 32
Even
G J. McDowell TR3.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 40
F M. Pocknett TR3.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 14
WAKESmall
F R. Nyeri TR8.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 34
C S. Nosakhare TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F X. Pintelon TR5.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 47
Gardner-WebbBetterWake Forest
GWEB offense318th of 366 · -10.4
WAKEBig
WAKE defense96th of 366 · -0.5
GWEB defense357th of 366 · -10.2
WAKEBig
WAKE offense80th of 366 · +0.5
Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players
WAKEBig
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players
Bench-0.9 · 1 player
Even
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGWEB betterWAKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Gardner-Webb
Guards
J. Hudson27 minA. Talbert25 minJ. Ferere18 minS. BrownNewD. DanielNewB. LutherNew
Forwards
M. Pocknett14 min · TRJ. Skipper8 min · TRC. OkparaNew
Centers
S. Nosakhare9 min · TRG. TropnasNewB. RutsinduraNew
Wake Forest
Guards
K. Kennedy37 min · TRJ. Ray29 min · TRJ. McDowell17 min · TRI. Carr13 minA. Beard2 minW. Underwood2 min
Forwards
R. Nyeri26 min · TRX. Pintelon18 min · TRV. Ricchiuti2 minJ. AbsonNewV. ChaudhriNewG. PlacideNew
Centers
A. Dorn9 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GWEBWAKE
Scoring
66.2 #343Points per game78.8 #83
0.94 #360Points per possession1.12 #94
70.8 #84Pace (possessions)70.2 #112
Shooting
47.8 #317Effective FG%52.7 #117
31.0 #3203-point %34.1 #166
39.8 #1743-point attempt rate43.6 #99
30.3 #302Free throw rate35.2 #170
Possessions
19.8 #347Turnover rate15.5 #107
23.2 #350Offensive rebound rate30.1 #196
9.7 #362Assists per game14.4 #123
Defense
86.7 #362Points allowed76.9 #239
1.22 #361Points allowed per possession1.10 #214
57.0 #356Opponent effective FG%51.8 #202
36.0 #300Opponent 3-point %32.9 #117
15.3 #265Turnovers forced17.7 #114
63.4 #355Defensive rebound rate67.0 #298
6.1 #224Steals per game7.7 #59
2.4 #309Blocks per game3.5 #136
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Gardner-Webb

2-28 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point59–81
  • Wvs SC Upstate65–64
  • L@ SC Upstate61–71
  • Lvs UNC Asheville71–77
  • L@ Radford70–82

A week or more of rest.

Wake Forest

18-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois St75–78
  • Wvs Navy82–72
  • Lvs Clemson62–71
  • Wvs Virginia Tech95–89
  • Wvs California80–73

A week or more of rest.