Georgia Southern Eagles at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 2:00 PM ETPaul Porter Arena · at Gardner-Webb

#296GASOGA Southern88▲ winner

Final

Closing lineGASO -10.5✓ GWEB covered by 6.5

Closing total162.5Over by 9.5

Season records: GA Southern and Gardner-Webb
GASO	This season	GWEB
4-5	Record	0-9
5-4	ATS	2-7
4-5	O/U	6-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GASO 85–77 GWEB · ✓ GASO (77%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GASO	46	42	88
GWEB	43	41	84

1st half: GASO 46, GWEB 43 (GASO by 3). The model had GASO by 5.2 and a total of 75.4 (actual 89).

Team stats

GASO		GWEB
30-61 49%	Field goals	27-54 50%
9-24 38%	3-pointers	7-16 44%
19-28 68%	Free throws	23-28 82%
30 8 off	Rebounds	34 7 off
12	Assists	11
10	Steals	3
2	Blocks	4
8	Turnovers	15
22	Fouls	21
42	Points in paint	38
12	Fast-break points	12

Players

GASO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Spudd Webb G	35	14	1	2	5-14	0-2
Alden Applewhite F	32	12	12	2	4-8	3-5
Jayden Williams G	20	4	1	3	1-3	0-1
Tyren Moore G	9	3	1	0	1-3	1-3
Shainen Carter F	8	2	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Nakavieon White F	25	15	5	4	4-10	0-4
Dwayne Williams Jr. G	25	13	2	0	5-10	2-5
Andres Burney F	21	14	5	0	6-8	0-0
Khayri Dunn G	18	11	0	0	4-5	3-4
Tsvet Sotirov F	7	0	2	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Pavle Ridesic, Jefferson Koulibaly, Sean Van Dorn Jr., Cullen Schreiner, Amare Neal, Cade Lomas, Dallas Gardner

GWEB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Colin Hawkins G	34	12	6	3	6-8	0-1
Curtis Williams III G	31	8	5	0	3-6	2-3
Spence Sims G	28	20	1	2	6-12	4-8
Jacob Hogarth F	28	13	9	1	1-4	0-0
Ace Talbert G	24	0	2	1	0-6	0-2
Bench
Jacob Hudson G	33	22	3	4	8-12	0-1
Riek Riek F	13	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Jamias Ferere G	9	7	2	0	2-4	1-1

Did not play: Ahmadou Ndiaye, Julius Clark, Ashton King, Cameron Gales, NaVuan Peterson, Paul Lindberg, Isaiah Hicks, DJ Jefferson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GASO -10.5	GASO -8.3	GWEB +2.2	W GWEB covered
Total	162.5	161.2	Under 1.3	L Over
Projected score	—	GASO 84.8 · GWEB 76.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GASO -5.2	GASO -3.0
1H total	75.4	89
1H projected score	GASO 40.3 · GWEB 35.1	GASO 46 · GWEB 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO LLLWW	5-4	56%	3-1	2-2
GWEB LLLLL	2-7	22%	—	2-7

Venue/role: GASO away, as favorite; GWEB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO UUUUO	4-5	44%	4-5
GWEB OUOOO	6-3	67%	0-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASOlast 9	4-5 44%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
GWEBlast 9	0-9 0%	2-7 22%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GASO 1–0 GWEBGASO leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · GASO 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 17, 2024-25	GWEB 81 @ GASO 86	GASO -3.5	GASO W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

GA Southern

9 games played

Straight up

4-5

44% wins

Against the spread

5-4

56% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-5

44% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-544%

L W W L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-456%

W L W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-544%

O O O U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ECU	L 89-92	+5.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	vsUNCA	W 93-90	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 183
Nov 11	@FGCU	W 95-94	+3.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 18	@GT	L 66-68	+10.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 21	@FSU	L 72-98	+18.5	L −7.5	175.5	U 170
Nov 24	vsYSU	L 61-67	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 25	vsUTSA	L 64-77	-3.5	L −16.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsHCU	W 80-62	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 142
Dec 3	vsLT	W 77-69	-1.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+2.5

UNCA

W 93-90

−2.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+4.5

L 66-68

+8.5

FSU

L 72-98

−7.5

YSU

L 61-67

−4.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−16.5

HCU

W 80-62

+10.5

W 77-69

+6.5

covered 5didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+29.5

UNCA

W 93-90

+20.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+25.5

L 66-68

−30.5

FSU

L 72-98

−5.5

YSU

L 61-67

−35.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−19.5

HCU

W 80-62

−6.5

W 77-69

+0.5

over 4under 5avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Gardner-Webb

9 games played

Straight up

0-9

0% wins

Against the spread

2-7

22% covers · avg −8.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-3

67% overs · avg +5.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-90%

L L L L L L L L L

9 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-722%

W L W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-367%

U O O U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MINN	L 60-87	+28.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 7	@CLEM	L 59-97	+29.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	@ELON	L 84-95	+13.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 179
Nov 18	@DEP	L 62-93	+21.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 22	@RICH	L 67-102	+19.5	L −15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 26	vsNAVY	L 51-84	+10.5	L −22.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 28	vsSELA	L 68-76	+6.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 29	@UNCW	L 62-88	+18.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 3	@QUC	L 74-107	+14.5	L −18.5	161.5	O 181

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

+1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

−8.5

ELON

L 84-95

+2.5

DEP

L 62-93

−9.5

RICH

L 67-102

−15.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−22.5

SELA

L 68-76

−1.5

UNCW

L 62-88

−7.5

QUC

L 74-107

−18.5

covered 2didn’t cover 7avg −8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

−1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

+10.5

ELON

L 84-95

+24.5

DEP

L 62-93

−0.5

RICH

L 67-102

+14.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−18.5

SELA

L 68-76

+2.5

UNCW

L 62-88

+2.5

QUC

L 74-107

+19.5

over 6under 3avg +5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

GA Southern

Gardner-Webb

GA Southern

Gardner-Webb