1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. NKU @ DETM
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Northern Kentucky Norse at Detroit Mercy Titans

Calihan Hall · at Detroit Mercy · Conference game
#229NKUN Kentucky
@
#277DETMDetroit Mercy
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NKUThis seasonDETM
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DETM 77–76 · win probability DETM 52%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NKU has more of the edges

NKU 4, DETM 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DETMBig
Three-pointers
NKU hits 33.6% and allows 36.6%; DETM hits 35.1% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 44.9% and 30.7% of their shots
NKUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NKU 16.3%, DETM 16.0%. Forced: NKU 18.6%, DETM 14.4%
NKUSmall
NKU offense vs DETM defense
Offense 209th of 366 against a defense 310th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NKU has played the 289th-hardest schedule, DETM the 208th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETMSmall
Home court
DETM at home. This season: DETM 0-0 at home, NKU 0-0 away
NKUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NKU 35.9, DETM 32.6. Allowed: NKU 37.2, DETM 37.6
NKUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NKU 53.2 and allows 54.2; DETM 49.5 and allows 52.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NKU 26%, DETM 49%. Transfers in: NKU 4, DETM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NKU 32.2%, DETM 33.3%. Defensive: NKU 68.4%, DETM 69.2%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: NKU plays 71.5 a game (55th fastest), DETM 69.7 (132nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
DETM offense vs NKU defense
Offense 236th of 366 against a defense 249th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DETM -0.4—
Total—152.8—
Projected score—NKU 76.2 · DETM 76.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDETM -0.1—
1H total71.4—
1H projected scoreNKU 35.6 · DETM 35.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

N Kentucky has the better starters

Position by position: N Kentucky 2, Detroit Mercy 1, even 2
N KentuckyBetterDetroit Mercy
G E. Elliott4.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.4 ast Score 3
DETMBig
G T. Spratt10.1 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 54
G E. Acker TR5.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 38
No call
G A. Carter11.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked
F N. Pagotto TR10.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1 ast Score 68
NKUBig
G L. Stone6.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 9
F W. Shortt TR6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
NKUSmall
F L. Maiden6.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 28
F D. Rakotonanahary3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 25
No call
C X. Istomin-Monroe1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
N KentuckyBetterDetroit Mercy
NKU offense209th of 366 · -6.3
NKUSmall
DETM defense310th of 366 · -8.1
NKU defense249th of 366 · -6.5
Even
DETM offense236th of 366 · -7.2
Backcourt-5.4 · 2 players
DETMBig
Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players
NKUSmall
Frontcourt-1.9 · 2 players
Bench-2.4 · 3 players
DETMSmall
Bench-0.7 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestNKU betterDETM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Kentucky
Guards
E. Elliott29 minE. Acker19 min · TRB. Davis-Ray7 min · TRB. Darbyshire6 minJ. ApathjangNewW. FosterNew
Forwards
N. Pagotto27 min · TRW. Shortt20 min · TRD. Rakotonanahary12 minR. Tolliver6 minJ. RuizNewP. Otto MaeNew
Detroit Mercy
Guards
T. Spratt25 minA. Carter21 minL. Stone21 minJ. Cotton7 minJ. BriggsNewE. PalssonNew
Forwards
L. Maiden16 minD. FavorNewV. SemerychNewC. HouserNewT. OwensNew
Centers
X. Istomin-Monroe8 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NKUDETM
Scoring
80.9 #47Points per game76.3 #135
1.13 #81Points per possession1.09 #153
71.5 #55Pace (possessions)69.7 #132
Shooting
53.2 #93Effective FG%49.5 #267
33.6 #1933-point %35.1 #108
44.9 #713-point attempt rate30.7 #343
35.9 #158Free throw rate32.6 #247
Possessions
16.3 #158Turnover rate16.0 #138
32.2 #117Offensive rebound rate33.3 #81
15.5 #65Assists per game13.1 #208
Defense
78.7 #284Points allowed78.7 #285
1.10 #225Points allowed per possession1.13 #290
54.2 #305Opponent effective FG%52.2 #223
36.6 #333Opponent 3-point %33.3 #140
18.6 #66Turnovers forced14.4 #324
68.4 #236Defensive rebound rate69.2 #193
8.3 #25Steals per game5.8 #264
3.5 #134Blocks per game3.3 #182
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Kentucky

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-11 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wright St90–103
  • Wvs Green Bay96–76
  • W@ Oakland85–84
  • Lvs Wright St91–92
  • W@ Cleveland St81–70

A week or more of rest.

Detroit Mercy

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wright St63–66
  • Wvs Robert Morris70–64
  • Wvs Milwaukee84–63
  • W@ Oakland95–89
  • L@ Robert Morris62–73

A week or more of rest.