Youngstown State Penguins at Robert Morris Colonials: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 1:00 PM ETUPMC Events Center · at Robert Morris · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Youngstown St and Robert Morris
YSU	This season	RMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects RMU 78–69 · win probability RMU 79%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: RMU has more of the edges

YSU 2, RMU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

RMUBig

Three-pointers

YSU hits 33.8% and allows 35.5%; RMU hits 38.0% and allows 33.2%. Threes are 49.4% and 40.7% of their shots

RMUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: YSU 30.4%, RMU 37.5%. Defensive: YSU 69.3%, RMU 71.2%

RMUSmall

RMU offense vs YSU defense

Offense 179th of 366 against a defense 264th, on the model’s ratings

RMUSmall

YSU offense vs RMU defense

Offense 267th of 366 against a defense 183rd, on the model’s ratings

RMUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: YSU 53.6 and allows 52.3; RMU 54.9 and allows 50.0

YSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: YSU 31.4, RMU 28.0. Allowed: YSU 36.0, RMU 40.1

YSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: YSU 18.8%, RMU 18.6%. Forced: YSU 17.8%, RMU 15.8%

RMUSmall

Home court

RMU at home. This season: RMU 0-0 at home, YSU 0-0 away

RMUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: YSU 8%, RMU 32%. Transfers in: YSU 6, RMU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: YSU plays 68.9 a game (188th fastest), RMU 67.5 (256th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

YSU has played the 304th-hardest schedule, RMU the 280th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	RMU -9.1	—
Total	—	146.6	—
Projected score	—	YSU 68.8 · RMU 77.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	RMU -5.3	—
1H total	68.6	—
1H projected score	YSU 31.6 · RMU 36.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
YSU WWLLL	10-19	34%	5-10	—
RMU WWWWL	20-11	65%	11-4	—

Venue/role: YSU away; RMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
YSU OUUOU	15-14	52%	12-17
RMU OUUUU	16-15	52%	20-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
YSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
RMU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Youngstown St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ SC	No recent meeting
Dec 15	@ MISS	No recent meeting

Robert Morris

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	vs DUQ	No recent meeting
Dec 13	vs MONM	L70–71WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 13 since 2021-22

YSU 5–8 RMURMU leads · 13 games since 2021-22 · RMU has won the last 5 meetings · YSU 4-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 4, 2025-26	YSU 53 @ RMU 68	RMU -3.5	RMU W
Feb 7, 2025-26	RMU 72 @ YSU 66	YSU -3.5	RMU W
Dec 17, 2025-26	YSU 77 @ RMU 80	RMU -2.5	RMU W
Mar 11, 2024-25	YSU 78 vs RMU 89	RMU -3.5	RMU W
Jan 22, 2024-25	RMU 72 @ YSU 70	YSU -2.5	RMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Youngstown St

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

10-19

34% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-14

52% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

L W L L L W W W W L W L L L L L L W L W W L W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-1934%

L W W L L W W L W L W L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1452%

U O O O U U O U U O U U O O U O O O U O O U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PITT	L 59-74	+14.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	@GCU	W 90-81	+15.5	W +24.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@SBU	L 80-84	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 19	@TOL	L 75-92	+1.5	L −15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 23	vsUNCG	L 62-68	-5.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 130
Nov 24	vsGASO	W 67-61	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 28	vsCHST	W 87-64	-14.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 3	vsWRST	W 69-68	-3.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 6	@IUIN	W 78-55	-6.5	W +16.5	171.5	U 133
Dec 17	@RMU	L 77-80	+2.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 20	vsUPST	W 74-65	-6.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsDETM	L 68-73	-9.5	L −14.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 1	vsOAK	L 83-85	-1.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 4	@NKU	L 79-94	+4.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 173
Jan 7	vsPFW	L 69-71	-4.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 140
Jan 15	@WRST	L 83-93	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 17	@CLE	L 78-80	-8.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 22	vsGB	W 88-81	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsMILW	L 64-65	-6.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsIUIN	W 85-76	-10.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 161
Feb 4	@PFW	W 90-61	+2.5	W +31.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 7	vsRMU	L 66-72	-3.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 12	@OAK	W 86-82	+3.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 15	@DETM	L 70-76	-4.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 18	vsCLE	W 106-82	-11.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 188
Feb 22	vsNKU	W 64-58	-2.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 122
Feb 25	@MILW	L 65-78	-1.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 143
Feb 28	@GB	L 63-85	+1.5	L −20.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 4	@RMU	L 53-68	+3.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−0.5

GCU

W 90-81

+24.5

SBU

L 80-84

+5.5

TOL

L 75-92

−15.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−11.5

GASO

W 67-61

+4.5

CHST

W 87-64

+8.5

WRST

W 69-68

−2.5

IUIN

W 78-55

+16.5

RMU

L 77-80

−0.5

UPST

W 74-65

+2.5

DETM

L 68-73

−14.5

OAK

L 83-85

−3.5

NKU

L 79-94

−10.5

PFW

L 69-71

−6.5

WRST

L 83-93

−5.5

CLE

L 78-80

−10.5

W 88-81

−0.5

MILW

L 64-65

−7.5

IUIN

W 85-76

−1.5

PFW

W 90-61

+31.5

RMU

L 66-72

−9.5

OAK

W 86-82

+7.5

DETM

L 70-76

−10.5

CLE

W 106-82

+12.5

NKU

W 64-58

+3.5

MILW

L 65-78

−14.5

L 63-85

−20.5

RMU

L 53-68

−11.5

covered 10didn’t cover 19avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−12.5

GCU

W 90-81

+18.5

SBU

L 80-84

+17.5

TOL

L 75-92

+6.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−22.5

GASO

W 67-61

−35.5

CHST

W 87-64

+4.5

WRST

W 69-68

−7.5

IUIN

W 78-55

−38.5

RMU

L 77-80

+16.5

UPST

W 74-65

−2.5

DETM

L 68-73

−5.5

OAK

L 83-85

+10.5

NKU

L 79-94

+26.5

PFW

L 69-71

−5.5

WRST

L 83-93

+34.5

CLE

L 78-80

+5.5

W 88-81

+29.5

MILW

L 64-65

−22.5

IUIN

W 85-76

+7.5

PFW

W 90-61

+3.5

RMU

L 66-72

−5.5

OAK

W 86-82

+12.5

DETM

L 70-76

−5.5

CLE

W 106-82

+30.5

NKU

W 64-58

−30.5

MILW

L 65-78

−4.5

L 63-85

+6.5

RMU

L 53-68

−22.5

over 15under 14avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Robert Morris

31 games played

Straight up

20-11

65% wins

Against the spread

20-11

65% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1165%

L W L L W W W W L W W W L W L L L W W L W L W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1165%

L W L W W L W W W W W L L W L L L W W L W L W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1552%

O O U U O U U O U U O O O O O O O O O U U O U U U O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@IOWA	L 69-101	+22.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 170
Nov 6	@DRKE	W 81-79	+7.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 20	@SBU	L 61-75	+11.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 23	@MONM	L 70-71	+2.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsUIC	W 88-74	+1.5	W +15.5	151.5	O 162
Nov 28	vsSUU	W 61-54	-8.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 115
Nov 30	vsSTET	W 80-62	-11.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 142
Dec 4	@GB	W 80-78	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 158
Dec 6	@MILW	L 72-74	+4.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 13	vsTOL	W 75-70	+1.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 17	vsYSU	W 80-77	-2.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 20	@SFPA	W 79-70	-13.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 149
Dec 29	vsNKU	L 77-79	+1.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 2	@DETM	W 85-77	-3.5	W +4.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 4	@OAK	L 73-96	+1.5	L −21.5	161.5	O 169
Jan 11	vsPFW	L 74-79	-4.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 153
Jan 15	@IUIN	L 93-96	-5.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 189
Jan 17	@NKU	W 92-89	+7.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 181
Jan 22	vsMILW	W 88-76	-4.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 24	vsGB	L 67-71	-6.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 28	vsIUIN	W 74-58	-8.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 132
Jan 31	@PFW	L 71-83	+2.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 154
Feb 4	vsWRST	W 72-66	+1.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 7	@YSU	W 72-66	+3.5	W +9.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 12	@CLE	W 85-68	-3.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 15	vsOAK	W 93-69	-1.5	W +22.5	156.5	O 162
Feb 22	@WRST	W 81-68	+4.5	W +17.5	146.5	O 149
Feb 25	vsDETM	W 73-62	-8.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsCLE	W 83-64	-12.5	W +6.5	157.5	U 147
Mar 4	vsYSU	W 68-53	-3.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 121
Mar 9	vsDETM	L 64-70	-4.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IOWA

L 69-101

−9.5

DRKE

W 81-79

+9.5

SBU

L 61-75

−2.5

MONM

L 70-71

+1.5

UIC

W 88-74

+15.5

SUU

W 61-54

−1.5

STET

W 80-62

+6.5

W 80-78

+0.5

MILW

L 72-74

+2.5

TOL

W 75-70

+6.5

YSU

W 80-77

+0.5

SFPA

W 79-70

−4.5

NKU

L 77-79

−0.5

DETM

W 85-77

+4.5

OAK

L 73-96

−21.5

PFW

L 74-79

−9.5

IUIN

L 93-96

−8.5

NKU

W 92-89

+10.5

MILW

W 88-76

+7.5

L 67-71

−10.5

IUIN

W 74-58

+7.5

PFW

L 71-83

−9.5

WRST

W 72-66

+7.5

YSU

W 72-66

+9.5

CLE

W 85-68

+13.5

OAK

W 93-69

+22.5

WRST

W 81-68

+17.5

DETM

W 73-62

+2.5

CLE

W 83-64

+6.5

YSU

W 68-53

+11.5

DETM

L 64-70

−10.5

covered 20didn’t cover 11avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IOWA

L 69-101

+33.5

DRKE

W 81-79

+8.5

SBU

L 61-75

−10.5

MONM

L 70-71

−7.5

UIC

W 88-74

+10.5

SUU

W 61-54

−37.5

STET

W 80-62

−0.5

W 80-78

+17.5

MILW

L 72-74

−7.5

TOL

W 75-70

−9.5

YSU

W 80-77

+16.5

SFPA

W 79-70

+3.5

NKU

L 77-79

+6.5

DETM

W 85-77

+13.5

OAK

L 73-96

+7.5

PFW

L 74-79

+6.5

IUIN

L 93-96

+28.5

NKU

W 92-89

+27.5

MILW

W 88-76

+11.5

L 67-71

−4.5

IUIN

W 74-58

−30.5

PFW

L 71-83

+8.5

WRST

W 72-66

−9.5

YSU

W 72-66

−5.5

CLE

W 85-68

−1.5

OAK

W 93-69

+5.5

WRST

W 81-68

+2.5

DETM

W 73-62

−15.5

CLE

W 83-64

−10.5

YSU

W 68-53

−22.5

DETM

L 64-70

−12.5

over 16under 15avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Robert Morris has the better starters

Position by position: Youngstown St 0, Robert Morris 3, even 2

Youngstown StBetterRobert Morris

G L. Holmstrom TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 30

RMUBig

G A. Valentine TR12 pts · 4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 71

G J. Haynes3.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

Even

G D. Livingston9.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.9 ast Score 23

G J. Tyler TR4.3 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 18

Even

G T. Smith6.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30

G J. Nwankwo TR3 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28

RMUBig

F J. Dunkley TR12.4 pts · 6.7 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F J. Coleman TR3.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5

RMUBig

F K. Ugwuakazi TR5.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 63

Youngstown StBetterRobert Morris

YSU offense267th of 366 · -8.1

RMUSmall

RMU defense183rd of 366 · -4.2

YSU defense264th of 366 · -6.8

RMUSmall

RMU offense179th of 366 · -5.5

Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players

RMUSmall

Backcourt-2.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player

RMUBig

Frontcourt+1.5 · 2 players

Bench-2.0 · 2 players

RMUSmall

Bench-0.3 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestYSU betterRMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Youngstown St

Guards

L. Holmstrom27 min · TRJ. Haynes15 minJ. Tyler13 min · TRJ. Nwankwo12 min · TRD. Aekins7 min · TRJ. LivingstonNew

Forwards

J. Coleman13 min · TRJ. Moupadele12 min · TRL. LokhmanchukNewE. Summers-LivingstonNew

Centers

K. AmoakoNew

Robert Morris

Guards

A. Valentine33 min · TRD. Livingston26 minT. Smith19 minK. Garris16 min · TRE. Cooke9 minL. SloaneNew

Forwards

J. Dunkley29 min · TRK. Ugwuakazi19 min · TRS. Obenjo9 minD. StolbetskiyNewB. OderinloNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

YSU75.1 #162

RMU76.8 #122

Points per possession

YSU1.09 #160

RMU1.14 #67

Pace (possessions)

YSU68.9 #188

RMU67.5 #256

Shooting

Effective FG%

YSU53.6 #76

RMU54.9 #39

3-point %

YSU33.8 #184

RMU38.0 #18

3-point attempt rate

YSU49.4 #17

RMU40.7 #154

Free throw rate

YSU31.4 #272

RMU28.0 #343

Possessions

Turnover rate

YSU18.8 #314

RMU18.6 #305

Offensive rebound rate

YSU30.4 #182

RMU37.5 #11

Assists per game

YSU14.0 #144

RMU17.6 #13

Defense

Points allowed

YSU74.9 #185

RMU73.4 #139

Points allowed per possession

YSU1.09 #190

RMU1.08 #174

Opponent effective FG%

YSU52.3 #228

RMU50.0 #100

Opponent 3-point %

YSU35.5 #280

RMU33.2 #135

Turnovers forced

YSU17.8 #106

RMU15.8 #230

Defensive rebound rate

YSU69.3 #191

RMU71.2 #98

Steals per game

YSU6.7 #151

RMU5.5 #292

Blocks per game

YSU3.5 #146

RMU2.5 #308

YSU		RMU
Scoring
75.1 #162	Points per game	76.8 #122
1.09 #160	Points per possession	1.14 #67
68.9 #188	Pace (possessions)	67.5 #256
Shooting
53.6 #76	Effective FG%	54.9 #39
33.8 #184	3-point %	38.0 #18
49.4 #17	3-point attempt rate	40.7 #154
31.4 #272	Free throw rate	28.0 #343
Possessions
18.8 #314	Turnover rate	18.6 #305
30.4 #182	Offensive rebound rate	37.5 #11
14.0 #144	Assists per game	17.6 #13
Defense
74.9 #185	Points allowed	73.4 #139
1.09 #190	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #174
52.3 #228	Opponent effective FG%	50.0 #100
35.5 #280	Opponent 3-point %	33.2 #135
17.8 #106	Turnovers forced	15.8 #230
69.3 #191	Defensive rebound rate	71.2 #98
6.7 #151	Steals per game	5.5 #292
3.5 #146	Blocks per game	2.5 #308

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Youngstown St

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Robert Morris53–68
L@ Green Bay63–85
L@ Milwaukee65–78
Wvs N Kentucky64–58
Wvs Cleveland St106–82

A week or more of rest.

Robert Morris

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Detroit Mercy64–70
Wvs Youngstown St68–53
Wvs Cleveland St83–64
Wvs Detroit Mercy73–62
W@ Wright St81–68

A week or more of rest.

Youngstown State Penguins at Robert Morris Colonials

What could decide it: RMU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Youngstown St

Robert Morris

Robert Morris has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Youngstown St

Robert Morris