1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Dec 7
  3. NCCU @ VCU
NCAAB · Mon, Dec 7

North Carolina Central Eagles at VCU Rams

Siegel Center · at VCU
#357NCCUNC Central
@
#61VCUVCU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NCCUThis seasonVCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VCU 91–59 · win probability VCU 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VCU has more of the edges

NCCU 0, VCU 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VCUBig
NCCU offense vs VCU defense
Offense 345th of 366 against a defense 50th, on the model’s ratings
VCUBig
VCU offense vs NCCU defense
Offense 65th of 366 against a defense 352nd, on the model’s ratings
VCUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NCCU 47.5 and allows 54.5; VCU 53.6 and allows 49.0
Context
Schedule so far
NCCU has played the 310th-hardest schedule, VCU the 88th. A record against a soft schedule means less
VCUBig
Three-pointers
NCCU hits 32.6% and allows 36.4%; VCU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 33.9% and 43.8% of their shots
VCUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NCCU 30.0%, VCU 31.6%. Defensive: NCCU 60.6%, VCU 70.0%
VCUBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NCCU 4%, VCU 65%. Transfers in: NCCU 4, VCU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
VCUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NCCU 39.3, VCU 42.0. Allowed: NCCU 36.9, VCU 32.8
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: NCCU plays 66.9 a game (282nd fastest), VCU 69.5 (147th). Faster games mean more points
VCUSmall
Home court
VCU at home. This season: VCU 0-0 at home, NCCU 0-0 away
VCUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NCCU 18.2%, VCU 15.1%. Forced: NCCU 19.8%, VCU 17.0%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—VCU -32.1—
Total—149.3—
Projected score—NCCU 58.6 · VCU 90.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadVCU -19.0—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scoreNCCU 25.4 · VCU 44.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

VCU has the better starters

Position by position: NC Central 0, VCU 3, even 2
NC CentralBetterVCU
G T. Brown TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
VCUBig
G N. Ralph-Beyer TR14.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 61
G R. Archey3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Jennings8.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 79
F C. Meeks TR5.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 6
VCUBig
G N. Lewis8.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79
F T. Mason TR5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32
VCUBig
F T. Alston TR13.3 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 85
F M. Vassel TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F L. Djokovic13.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
NC CentralBetterVCU
NCCU offense345th of 366 · -11.9
VCUBig
VCU defense50th of 366 · +2.0
NCCU defense352nd of 366 · -9.9
VCUBig
VCU offense65th of 366 · +2.0
Backcourt-2.4 · 2 players
VCUBig
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-5.2 · 3 players
VCUBig
Frontcourt+5.5 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+3.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNCCU betterVCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
NC Central
Guards
T. Brown14 min · TRR. Archey8 minD. KaneNewC. SanonNewI. BuckleyNewA. BowserNew
Forwards
C. Meeks29 min · TRT. Mason12 min · TRM. Vassel8 min · TRJ. PriceNewD. DuorNew
Centers
D. MbaetekaNew
VCU
Guards
N. Ralph-Beyer31 min · TRB. Jennings25 minN. Lewis24 minB. Harper18 min · TRT. Ward14 minA. Nowell11 min
Forwards
T. Alston30 min · TRL. Djokovic28 minM. Belle22 minJ. Wyche7 min · TRC. RossNewS. PlisnicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NCCUVCU
Scoring
67.6 #322Points per game80.8 #50
1.02 #308Points per possession1.16 #47
66.9 #282Pace (possessions)69.5 #147
Shooting
47.5 #328Effective FG%53.6 #78
32.6 #2473-point %36.3 #46
33.9 #2993-point attempt rate43.8 #91
39.3 #72Free throw rate42.0 #30
Possessions
18.2 #285Turnover rate15.1 #70
30.0 #201Offensive rebound rate31.6 #139
12.1 #279Assists per game13.9 #158
Defense
77.3 #246Points allowed71.8 #100
1.15 #322Points allowed per possession1.04 #66
54.5 #317Opponent effective FG%49.0 #69
36.4 #321Opponent 3-point %33.0 #125
19.8 #27Turnovers forced17.0 #151
60.6 #364Defensive rebound rate70.0 #162
7.7 #60Steals per game7.3 #99
3.4 #165Blocks per game4.3 #50
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC Central

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard63–70
  • Wvs Delaware St59–53
  • Wvs MD Eastern83–76
  • Lvs SC State64–80
  • W@ MD Eastern77–73

A week or more of rest.

VCU

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-3 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois55–76
  • Wvs North Carolina82–78
  • Wvs Dayton70–62
  • Wvs Saint Joseph's77–64
  • Wvs Duquesne71–66

A week or more of rest.