Houston Christian Huskies at SE Louisiana Lions: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 7, 7:00 PM ETUniversity Center · at SE Louisiana · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hou Christian and SE Louisiana
HCU	This season	SELA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SELA 70–65 · win probability SELA 66%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 135.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

HCU 3, SELA 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SELABig

HCU offense vs SELA defense

Offense 342nd of 366 against a defense 177th, on the model’s ratings

HCUBig

SELA offense vs HCU defense

Offense 315th of 366 against a defense 203rd, on the model’s ratings

HCUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HCU 36.0, SELA 40.3. Allowed: HCU 30.7, SELA 41.2

HCUSmall

Three-pointers

HCU hits 31.7% and allows 35.0%; SELA hits 28.4% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 36.5% and 39.5% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

HCU has played the 332nd-hardest schedule, SELA the 276th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SELASmall

Home court

SELA at home. This season: SELA 0-0 at home, HCU 0-0 away

SELASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HCU 18.9%, SELA 18.4%. Forced: HCU 17.6%, SELA 19.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HCU 25%, SELA 4%. Transfers in: HCU 5, SELA 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: HCU plays 64.7 a game (352nd fastest), SELA 65.9 (318th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: HCU 49.7 and allows 54.2; SELA 46.7 and allows 52.4

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HCU 29.9%, SELA 28.6%. Defensive: HCU 67.5%, SELA 68.6%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SELA -4.6	—
Total	—	135.2	—
Projected score	—	HCU 65.3 · SELA 69.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SELA -2.6	—
1H total	63.3	—
1H projected score	HCU 30.4 · SELA 33	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HCU LWLWL	14-16	47%	8-9	—
SELA LLLLW	14-16	47%	5-6	—

Venue/role: HCU away; SELA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HCU UUUUU	14-16	47%	10-20
SELA UOOUO	13-17	43%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HCU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
SELA	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hou Christian

No more games listed yet.

SE Louisiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	@ CAL	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ HAW	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

HCU 2–9 SELASELA leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · SELA has won the last 3 meetings · HCU 4-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 7, 2025-26	HCU 47 @ SELA 55	SELA -4.5	SELA W
Dec 13, 2025-26	SELA 74 @ HCU 71	HCU -2.5	SELA W
Feb 10, 2024-25	SELA 69 @ HCU 60	HCU -1.5	SELA W
Jan 27, 2024-25	HCU 70 @ SELA 62	SELA -6.5	HCU W
Feb 17, 2023-24	HCU 78 @ SELA 81	SELA -15.5	HCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hou Christian

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L W L W L L W L L L L L L L L W W L W L L L L W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L W L W L W W L W L W L L L W W L L W W L L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U U U O O O O O O U O O U O O U O O U U O U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UCSD	L 60-78	+7.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 138
Nov 13	vsULM	W 72-61	-8.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 25	@BELL	L 69-74	-2.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 26	@CIT	W 72-65	-1.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 137
Nov 29	@GASO	L 62-80	+7.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 142
Dec 2	@UNT	L 75-77	+11.5	W +9.5	127.5	O 152
Dec 6	@NOLA	W 85-76	+4.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 161
Dec 13	vsSELA	L 71-74	-2.5	L −5.5	132.5	O 145
Dec 15	vsMCN	L 68-78	+14.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 146
Dec 17	@NICH	L 64-79	+3.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 143
Dec 29	@ISU	L 61-89	+35.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 3	@UIW	L 56-73	+6.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 5	vsAMCC	L 65-81	+3.5	L −12.5	132.5	O 146
Jan 10	@SFA	L 67-85	+12.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 152
Jan 12	@LAM	L 56-64	+8.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 120
Jan 17	vsETAM	W 81-70	-2.5	W +8.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 19	vsNWST	W 82-80	-2.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 162
Jan 24	vsRGV	L 51-68	+2.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 119
Jan 27	vsUIW	W 81-75	+1.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 31	@AMCC	L 71-73	+7.5	W +5.5	135.5	O 144
Feb 2	@RGV	L 57-74	+9.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 131
Feb 7	@SELA	L 47-55	+4.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 102
Feb 9	@MCN	L 69-73	+21.5	W +17.5	137.5	O 142
Feb 14	vsNOLA	W 61-60	-1.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 121
Feb 16	vsNICH	W 72-68	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 140
Feb 21	@NWST	L 53-71	+2.5	L −15.5	134.5	U 124
Feb 23	@ETAM	W 69-68	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 28	vsSFA	L 56-77	+8.5	L −12.5	138.5	U 133
Mar 2	vsLAM	W 75-53	+2.5	W +24.5	132.5	U 128
Mar 8	vsNOLA	L 60-73	+5.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCSD

L 60-78

−10.5

ULM

W 72-61

+2.5

BELL

L 69-74

−7.5

CIT

W 72-65

+5.5

GASO

L 62-80

−10.5

UNT

L 75-77

+9.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+13.5

SELA

L 71-74

−5.5

MCN

L 68-78

+4.5

NICH

L 64-79

−11.5

ISU

L 61-89

+7.5

UIW

L 56-73

−10.5

AMCC

L 65-81

−12.5

SFA

L 67-85

−5.5

LAM

L 56-64

+0.5

ETAM

W 81-70

+8.5

NWST

W 82-80

−0.5

RGV

L 51-68

−14.5

UIW

W 81-75

+7.5

AMCC

L 71-73

+5.5

RGV

L 57-74

−7.5

SELA

L 47-55

−3.5

MCN

L 69-73

+17.5

NOLA

W 61-60

−0.5

NICH

W 72-68

+2.5

NWST

L 53-71

−15.5

ETAM

W 69-68

+3.5

SFA

L 56-77

−12.5

LAM

W 75-53

+24.5

NOLA

L 60-73

−7.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCSD

L 60-78

−3.5

ULM

W 72-61

−10.5

BELL

L 69-74

−1.5

CIT

W 72-65

−0.5

GASO

L 62-80

−6.5

UNT

L 75-77

+24.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+20.5

SELA

L 71-74

+12.5

MCN

L 68-78

+8.5

NICH

L 64-79

+5.5

ISU

L 61-89

+4.5

UIW

L 56-73

−12.5

AMCC

L 65-81

+13.5

SFA

L 67-85

+14.5

LAM

L 56-64

−14.5

ETAM

W 81-70

+11.5

NWST

W 82-80

+22.5

RGV

L 51-68

−21.5

UIW

W 81-75

+15.5

AMCC

L 71-73

+8.5

RGV

L 57-74

−10.5

SELA

L 47-55

−31.5

MCN

L 69-73

+4.5

NOLA

W 61-60

−27.5

NICH

W 72-68

+3.5

NWST

L 53-71

−10.5

ETAM

W 69-68

−1.5

SFA

L 56-77

−5.5

LAM

W 75-53

−4.5

NOLA

L 60-73

−10.5

over 14under 16avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

SE Louisiana

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L W W L W L L L L W L L L L W L L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L L W W L W W L W L W L L W W L L W W W L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U U O U O O O U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MISS	L 58-88	+21.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	@UL	L 52-58	+3.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 10	@GT	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 15	@MSST	L 68-75	+27.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 26	@UNCW	L 57-70	+11.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsGWEB	W 76-68	-6.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsNAVY	W 69-65	+3.5	W +7.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 7	vsNWST	L 68-76	-7.5	L −15.5	133.5	O 144
Dec 13	@HCU	W 74-71	+2.5	W +5.5	132.5	O 145
Dec 15	vsETAM	L 69-70	-4.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 139
Dec 19	@LSU	L 65-78	+24.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 30	@UIW	L 70-79	+6.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsSFA	L 63-73	+3.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 136
Jan 5	vsLAM	W 60-52	+1.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 112
Jan 10	@MCN	L 61-73	+16.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 134
Jan 12	vsNOLA	L 76-79	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 17	@AMCC	L 56-68	+5.5	L −6.5	130.5	U 124
Jan 19	@RGV	L 65-68	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 133
Jan 24	vsNICH	W 67-61	-2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsMCN	L 66-76	+12.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 142
Jan 31	@SFA	L 58-85	+9.5	L −17.5	135.5	O 143
Feb 2	@LAM	L 54-73	+5.5	L −13.5	132.5	U 127
Feb 7	vsHCU	W 55-47	-4.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 102
Feb 9	vsUIW	W 74-62	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 14	@NWST	L 66-69	+1.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 135
Feb 16	@ETAM	L 53-70	+2.5	L −14.5	136.5	U 123
Feb 21	vsRGV	L 75-96	+4.5	L −16.5	138.5	O 171
Feb 23	vsAMCC	L 68-73	+1.5	L −3.5	130.5	O 141
Feb 28	@NICH	L 60-68	+4.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 128
Mar 2	@NOLA	W 82-78	+6.5	W +10.5	143.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

−8.5

L 52-58

−2.5

L 60-70

+4.5

MSST

L 68-75

+20.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−1.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+1.5

NAVY

W 69-65

+7.5

NWST

L 68-76

−15.5

HCU

W 74-71

+5.5

ETAM

L 69-70

−5.5

LSU

L 65-78

+11.5

UIW

L 70-79

−2.5

SFA

L 63-73

−6.5

LAM

W 60-52

+9.5

MCN

L 61-73

+4.5

NOLA

L 76-79

−5.5

AMCC

L 56-68

−6.5

RGV

L 65-68

+2.5

NICH

W 67-61

+3.5

MCN

L 66-76

+2.5

SFA

L 58-85

−17.5

LAM

L 54-73

−13.5

HCU

W 55-47

+3.5

UIW

W 74-62

+10.5

NWST

L 66-69

−1.5

ETAM

L 53-70

−14.5

RGV

L 75-96

−16.5

AMCC

L 68-73

−3.5

NICH

L 60-68

−3.5

NOLA

W 82-78

+10.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

+2.5

L 52-58

−25.5

L 60-70

−3.5

MSST

L 68-75

−7.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−10.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+2.5

NAVY

W 69-65

−2.5

NWST

L 68-76

+10.5

HCU

W 74-71

+12.5

ETAM

L 69-70

+1.5

LSU

L 65-78

−1.5

UIW

L 70-79

+13.5

SFA

L 63-73

−1.5

LAM

W 60-52

−23.5

MCN

L 61-73

−4.5

NOLA

L 76-79

+12.5

AMCC

L 56-68

−6.5

RGV

L 65-68

−2.5

NICH

W 67-61

−13.5

MCN

L 66-76

+2.5

SFA

L 58-85

+7.5

LAM

L 54-73

−5.5

HCU

W 55-47

−31.5

UIW

W 74-62

−1.5

NWST

L 66-69

+3.5

ETAM

L 53-70

−13.5

RGV

L 75-96

+32.5

AMCC

L 68-73

+10.5

NICH

L 60-68

−11.5

NOLA

W 82-78

+16.5

over 13under 17avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SE Louisiana has the better starters

Position by position: Hou Christian 1, SE Louisiana 2, even 2

Hou ChristianBetterSE Louisiana

G C. Mubiru TR6.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 37

SELASmall

G Q. Allen TR9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 62

G D. Samuels8.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 2 ast Score 46

HCUSmall

G J. Furman TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13

G E. Pippa-White TR4.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 5

Even

G T. Bailey TR6.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 12

F S. Simmons TR6.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33

SELASmall

G T. Rolison TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 58

F M. Mara5.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33

Even

F A. Sims TR7.2 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 28

Hou ChristianBetterSE Louisiana

HCU offense342nd of 366 · -11.7

SELABig

SELA defense177th of 366 · -4.0

HCU defense203rd of 366 · -5.0

HCUSmall

SELA offense315th of 366 · -10.2

Backcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-5.3 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.9 · 1 player

Bench-3.9 · 3 players

Even

Bench-3.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHCU betterSELA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hou Christian

Guards

C. Mubiru27 min · TRD. Samuels23 minE. Pippa-White18 min · TRB. Alvarez15 min · TRK. Clark7 minM. AlexanderNew

Forwards

S. Simmons26 min · TRM. Mara20 minA. Miller15 min · TRI. SackoNewK. KeinysNewJ. PapeNew

SE Louisiana

Guards

Q. Allen25 min · TRJ. Furman24 min · TRT. Bailey23 min · TRT. Rolison17 min · TRG. Sanford12 min · TRJ. Nyam1 min · TR

Forwards

A. Sims32 min · TRJ. Massaquoi17 min · TRY. Ndjonga10 min · TRG. Shoemaker7 min

Centers

D. Akoue12 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HCU66.3 #342

SELA64.8 #350

Points per possession

HCU1.03 #297

SELA0.98 #339

Pace (possessions)

HCU64.7 #352

SELA65.9 #318

Shooting

Effective FG%

HCU49.7 #252

SELA46.7 #343

3-point %

HCU31.7 #291

SELA28.4 #362

3-point attempt rate

HCU36.5 #239

SELA39.5 #183

Free throw rate

HCU36.0 #151

SELA40.3 #56

Possessions

Turnover rate

HCU18.9 #317

SELA18.4 #291

Offensive rebound rate

HCU29.9 #205

SELA28.6 #245

Assists per game

HCU13.7 #164

SELA11.4 #319

Defense

Points allowed

HCU72.4 #113

SELA71.3 #86

Points allowed per possession

HCU1.12 #268

SELA1.08 #172

Opponent effective FG%

HCU54.2 #304

SELA52.4 #233

Opponent 3-point %

HCU35.0 #248

SELA36.0 #301

Turnovers forced

HCU17.6 #117

SELA19.1 #47

Defensive rebound rate

HCU67.5 #279

SELA68.6 #225

Steals per game

HCU6.3 #200

SELA6.8 #145

Blocks per game

HCU3.7 #111

SELA2.7 #272

HCU		SELA
Scoring
66.3 #342	Points per game	64.8 #350
1.03 #297	Points per possession	0.98 #339
64.7 #352	Pace (possessions)	65.9 #318
Shooting
49.7 #252	Effective FG%	46.7 #343
31.7 #291	3-point %	28.4 #362
36.5 #239	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #183
36.0 #151	Free throw rate	40.3 #56
Possessions
18.9 #317	Turnover rate	18.4 #291
29.9 #205	Offensive rebound rate	28.6 #245
13.7 #164	Assists per game	11.4 #319
Defense
72.4 #113	Points allowed	71.3 #86
1.12 #268	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #172
54.2 #304	Opponent effective FG%	52.4 #233
35.0 #248	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #301
17.6 #117	Turnovers forced	19.1 #47
67.5 #279	Defensive rebound rate	68.6 #225
6.3 #200	Steals per game	6.8 #145
3.7 #111	Blocks per game	2.7 #272

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hou Christian

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs LSU N Orleans60–73
Wvs Lamar75–53
Lvs SF Austin56–77
W@ East Texas A&M69–68
L@ N'Western St53–71

A week or more of rest.

SE Louisiana

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-16 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

W@ LSU N Orleans82–78
L@ Nicholls60–68
Lvs Texas A&M-CC68–73
Lvs UT Rio Grande75–96
L@ East Texas A&M53–70

A week or more of rest.

Houston Christian Huskies at SE Louisiana Lions

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Hou Christian

SE Louisiana

SE Louisiana has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hou Christian

SE Louisiana