1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Dec 10
  3. SELA @ CAL
NCAAB · Thu, Dec 10

SE Louisiana Lions at California Golden Bears

Haas Pavilion · at California
#253SELASE Louisiana
@
#92CALCalifornia
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SELAThis seasonCAL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CAL 81–63 · win probability CAL 94%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CAL has more of the edges

SELA 0, CAL 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CALBig
Three-pointers
SELA hits 28.4% and allows 36.0%; CAL hits 36.9% and allows 31.0%. Threes are 39.5% and 43.1% of their shots
CALBig
SELA offense vs CAL defense
Offense 315th of 366 against a defense 100th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SELA has played the 276th-hardest schedule, CAL the 77th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CALBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SELA 46.7 and allows 52.4; CAL 52.6 and allows 49.8
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: SELA plays 65.9 a game (318th fastest), CAL 69.8 (126th). Faster games mean more points
CALSmall
CAL offense vs SELA defense
Offense 84th of 366 against a defense 177th, on the model’s ratings
CALSmall
Home court
CAL at home. This season: CAL 0-0 at home, SELA 0-0 away
CALSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SELA 4%, CAL 29%. Transfers in: SELA 10, CAL 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SELA 18.4%, CAL 15.1%. Forced: SELA 19.1%, CAL 16.1%
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SELA 28.6%, CAL 26.0%. Defensive: SELA 68.6%, CAL 69.5%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SELA 40.3, CAL 36.2. Allowed: SELA 41.2, CAL 36.3
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CAL -17.5—
Total—144.0—
Projected score—SELA 63.3 · CAL 80.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCAL -10.3—
1H total67.4—
1H projected scoreSELA 28.6 · CAL 38.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

California has the better starters

Position by position: SE Louisiana 0, California 3, even 2
SE LouisianaBetterCalifornia
G Q. Allen TR9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 62
Even
G M. Cooper TR13.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 74
G J. Furman TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13
CALBig
G N. Indrusaitis TR9.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 76
G T. Bailey TR6.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 12
CALBig
G J. Ross TR6.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 58
G T. Rolison TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 58
Even
G S. Carr3.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 46
F A. Sims TR7.2 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 28
CALBig
F L. Dort8 pts · 7.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 83
SE LouisianaBetterCalifornia
SELA offense315th of 366 · -10.2
CALBig
CAL defense100th of 366 · -0.7
SELA defense177th of 366 · -4.0
CALSmall
CAL offense84th of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt-5.3 · 4 players
CALBig
Backcourt+1.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.9 · 1 player
CALBig
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench-3.3 · 5 players
CALBig
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSELA betterCAL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SE Louisiana
Guards
Q. Allen25 min · TRJ. Furman24 min · TRT. Bailey23 min · TRT. Rolison17 min · TRG. Sanford12 min · TRJ. Nyam1 min · TR
Forwards
A. Sims32 min · TRJ. Massaquoi17 min · TRY. Ndjonga10 min · TRG. Shoemaker7 min
Centers
D. Akoue12 min · TR
California
Guards
M. Cooper27 min · TRN. Indrusaitis24 min · TRJ. Ross21 min · TRS. Carr17 minB. Fisher1 minL. Butler1 min
Forwards
L. Dort23 minJ. Wilkins10 min · TRA. Ali7 min · TRS. Yeanay5 minD. Manyiel Dut4 min
Centers
M. Kocanas7 minN. MitrovicNewD. DaubarisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SELACAL
Scoring
64.8 #350Points per game77.7 #99
0.98 #339Points per possession1.11 #118
65.9 #318Pace (possessions)69.8 #126
Shooting
46.7 #343Effective FG%52.6 #119
28.4 #3623-point %36.9 #30
39.5 #1833-point attempt rate43.1 #111
40.3 #56Free throw rate36.2 #146
Possessions
18.4 #291Turnover rate15.1 #74
28.6 #245Offensive rebound rate26.0 #322
11.4 #319Assists per game14.1 #142
Defense
71.3 #86Points allowed73.4 #140
1.08 #172Points allowed per possession1.05 #92
52.4 #233Opponent effective FG%49.8 #91
36.0 #301Opponent 3-point %31.0 #34
19.1 #47Turnovers forced16.1 #216
68.6 #225Defensive rebound rate69.5 #180
6.8 #145Steals per game5.9 #244
2.7 #272Blocks per game3.0 #217
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SE Louisiana

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-16 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • W@ LSU N Orleans82–78
  • L@ Nicholls60–68
  • Lvs Texas A&M-CC68–73
  • Lvs UT Rio Grande75–96
  • L@ East Texas A&M53–70

A week or more of rest.

California

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's75–76
  • Wvs UIC91–73
  • Lvs Florida St89–95
  • L@ Wake Forest73–80
  • W@ Georgia Tech76–65

A week or more of rest.