Mercyhurst Lakers at Coppin State Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 7, 7:00 PM ETPhysical Education Complex · at Coppin St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Mercyhurst and Coppin St
MERC	This season	COPP
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MERC 71–69 · win probability MERC 57%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MERC has more of the edges

MERC 4, COPP 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MERCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MERC 14.3%, COPP 22.3%. Forced: MERC 18.6%, COPP 17.6%

MERCBig

Three-pointers

MERC hits 32.1% and allows 32.3%; COPP hits 30.7% and allows 38.3%. Threes are 31.1% and 35.2% of their shots

MERCBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MERC 49.5 and allows 50.1; COPP 45.9 and allows 55.4

COPPBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MERC 25.6, COPP 38.5. Allowed: MERC 42.6, COPP 42.9

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: MERC plays 65.6 a game (327th fastest), COPP 69.3 (159th). Faster games mean more points

MERCSmall

COPP offense vs MERC defense

Offense 351st of 366 against a defense 272nd, on the model’s ratings

COPPSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MERC 26%, COPP 68%. Transfers in: MERC 3, COPP 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

COPPSmall

Home court

COPP at home. This season: COPP 0-0 at home, MERC 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

MERC has played the 356th-hardest schedule, COPP the 313th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MERC 26.4%, COPP 30.4%. Defensive: MERC 70.1%, COPP 65.3%

Even

MERC offense vs COPP defense

Offense 346th of 366 against a defense 324th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MERC -2.0	—
Total	—	139.9	—
Projected score	—	MERC 70.9 · COPP 69

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MERC -1.3	—
1H total	65.5	—
1H projected score	MERC 33.4 · COPP 32.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MERC WWWWL	21-10	68%	12-6	—
COPP WWLLW	13-17	43%	2-6	—

Venue/role: MERC away; COPP home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MERC OOUUO	15-16	48%	15-17
COPP UOOOU	19-11	63%	6-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MERC	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
COPP	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mercyhurst

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ SYR	L62–76WO

Coppin St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	vs MSM	L60–74WU
Dec 13	@ WVU	L49–91LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mercyhurst

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

21-10

68% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

L W L W L L L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L W L L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1068%

W W L W W W L–L W W L W W W L W W L W L W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1648%

U U U O O U U–U O O O U U O U O U U U O O U U O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NU	L 47-70	+26.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 6	@LUC	W 73-65	+21.5	W +29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 12	@CAN	L 55-58	-1.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 113
Nov 15	vsMORG	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 20	@M-OH	L 71-76	+15.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 147
Nov 23	@MRSH	L 60-69	+11.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 129
Nov 30	@WVU	L 38-70	+21.5	L −10.5	127.5	U 108
Dec 5	@LAF	L 71-79	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	@DAV	L 47-80	+11.5	L −21.5	132.5	U 127
Dec 17	@SYR	L 62-76	+24.5	W +10.5	131.5	O 138
Dec 20	vsBING	W 82-61	-7.5	W +13.5	132.5	O 143
Jan 2	vsFDU	L 67-74	-5.5	L −12.5	133.5	O 141
Jan 4	vsLEM	W 74-60	-2.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 8	@LIU	L 58-60	+8.5	W +6.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 10	@WAG	W 70-69	+1.5	W +2.5	132.5	O 139
Jan 17	vsSTO	L 57-62	-4.5	L −9.5	128.5	U 119
Jan 19	vsCCSU	W 79-61	-1.5	W +16.5	132.5	O 140
Jan 23	@NHVN	W 61-57	-1.5	W +2.5	122.5	U 118
Jan 25	vsCHST	W 61-59	-9.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsNHVN	W 70-51	-5.5	W +13.5	122.5	U 121
Jan 31	@CHST	L 74-78	-2.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 152
Feb 5	vsSFPA	W 98-89	-6.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 187
Feb 7	@FDU	L 52-55	+2.5	L −0.5	131.5	U 107
Feb 12	@LEM	L 57-58	+2.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 115
Feb 14	@SFPA	W 94-79	-2.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 173
Feb 19	vsWAG	L 80-83	-3.5	L −6.5	133.5	O 163
Feb 21	vsLIU	W 91-83	+3.5	W +11.5	140.5	O 174
Feb 26	@CCSU	L 78-80	+3.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 28	@STO	W 75-72	-1.5	W +1.5	137.5	O 147
Mar 4	vsFDU	W 70-61	-3.5	W +5.5	131.5	U 131
Mar 7	vsSTO	W 56-51	-4.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 107
Mar 10	@LIU	L 70-79	+4.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-70

+3.5

LUC

W 73-65

+29.5

CAN

L 55-58

−4.5

MORG

W 86-72

+7.5

M-OH

L 71-76

+10.5

MRSH

L 60-69

+2.5

WVU

L 38-70

−10.5

DAV

L 47-80

−21.5

SYR

L 62-76

+10.5

BING

W 82-61

+13.5

FDU

L 67-74

−12.5

LEM

W 74-60

+11.5

LIU

L 58-60

+6.5

WAG

W 70-69

+2.5

STO

L 57-62

−9.5

CCSU

W 79-61

+16.5

NHVN

W 61-57

+2.5

CHST

W 61-59

−7.5

NHVN

W 70-51

+13.5

CHST

L 74-78

−6.5

SFPA

W 98-89

+2.5

FDU

L 52-55

−0.5

LEM

L 57-58

+1.5

SFPA

W 94-79

+12.5

WAG

L 80-83

−6.5

LIU

W 91-83

+11.5

CCSU

L 78-80

+1.5

STO

W 75-72

+1.5

FDU

W 70-61

+5.5

STO

W 56-51

+0.5

LIU

L 70-79

−4.5

covered 21didn’t cover 10avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-70

−23.5

LUC

W 73-65

−6.5

CAN

L 55-58

−22.5

MORG

W 86-72

+11.5

M-OH

L 71-76

+7.5

MRSH

L 60-69

−18.5

WVU

L 38-70

−19.5

DAV

L 47-80

−5.5

SYR

L 62-76

+6.5

BING

W 82-61

+10.5

FDU

L 67-74

+7.5

LEM

W 74-60

−7.5

LIU

L 58-60

−21.5

WAG

W 70-69

+6.5

STO

L 57-62

−9.5

CCSU

W 79-61

+7.5

NHVN

W 61-57

−4.5

CHST

W 61-59

−11.5

NHVN

W 70-51

−1.5

CHST

L 74-78

+22.5

SFPA

W 98-89

+49.5

FDU

L 52-55

−24.5

LEM

L 57-58

−23.5

SFPA

W 94-79

+34.5

WAG

L 80-83

+29.5

LIU

W 91-83

+33.5

CCSU

L 78-80

+16.5

STO

W 75-72

+9.5

FDU

W 70-61

−0.5

STO

W 56-51

−27.5

LIU

L 70-79

+14.5

over 15under 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Coppin St

30 games played

Straight up

6-24

20% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-11

63% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-2420%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1743%

W L W L L W L W L L L W L L W L W L L W L L L W W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1163%

O O O U U O O U O O U O O U O O U O O O O O U U U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMD	L 61-83	+28.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 5	@LAS	L 59-87	+17.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 9	@JMU	L 70-84	+18.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 154
Nov 12	@USF	L 50-100	+34.5	L −15.5	167.5	U 150
Nov 14	vsCMU	L 59-82	+10.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsUSA	L 62-72	+18.5	W +8.5	133.5	O 134
Nov 22	@VCU	L 58-101	+32.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 25	@RID	W 68-65	+8.5	W +11.5	139.5	U 133
Nov 30	@L-MD	L 84-95	+9.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 179
Dec 3	@WVU	L 49-91	+31.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 140
Dec 6	@LIB	L 50-92	+30.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 9	@JOES	L 65-87	+22.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 14	@RAD	L 77-107	+20.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 184
Dec 19	@NAVY	L 55-88	+20.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 143
Dec 22	@GTWN	L 67-97	+33.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 164
Dec 29	vsUMBC	L 59-93	+10.5	L −23.5	148.5	O 152
Jan 3	@DSU	W 53-51	+8.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 104
Jan 10	vsNCCU	L 77-88	+6.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 12	vsSCST	L 72-74	-1.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	@UMES	L 67-70	+10.5	W +7.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 24	@NORF	L 76-103	+13.5	L −13.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 31	vsMORG	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 169
Feb 2	vsHOW	L 53-72	+14.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsDSU	W 65-47	+1.5	W +19.5	132.5	U 112
Feb 14	@NCCU	W 58-56	+10.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 114
Feb 16	@SCST	W 59-57	+4.5	W +6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 21	vsUMES	W 71-65	+3.5	W +9.5	128.5	O 136
Feb 28	vsNORF	L 69-75	+5.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 2	@HOW	L 70-90	+19.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 160
Mar 5	@MORG	L 66-70	+5.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 61-83

+6.5

LAS

L 59-87

−10.5

JMU

L 70-84

+4.5

USF

L 50-100

−15.5

CMU

L 59-82

−12.5

USA

L 62-72

+8.5

VCU

L 58-101

−10.5

RID

W 68-65

+11.5

L-MD

L 84-95

−1.5

WVU

L 49-91

−10.5

LIB

L 50-92

−11.5

JOES

L 65-87

+0.5

RAD

L 77-107

−9.5

NAVY

L 55-88

−12.5

GTWN

L 67-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 59-93

−23.5

DSU

W 53-51

+10.5

NCCU

L 77-88

−4.5

SCST

L 72-74

−3.5

UMES

L 67-70

+7.5

NORF

L 76-103

−13.5

MORG

L 80-89

−5.5

HOW

L 53-72

−4.5

DSU

W 65-47

+19.5

NCCU

W 58-56

+12.5

SCST

W 59-57

+6.5

UMES

W 71-65

+9.5

NORF

L 69-75

−0.5

HOW

L 70-90

−0.5

MORG

L 66-70

+1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 61-83

+4.5

LAS

L 59-87

+6.5

JMU

L 70-84

+12.5

USF

L 50-100

−17.5

CMU

L 59-82

−1.5

USA

L 62-72

+0.5

VCU

L 58-101

+7.5

RID

W 68-65

−6.5

L-MD

L 84-95

+35.5

WVU

L 49-91

+5.5

LIB

L 50-92

−1.5

JOES

L 65-87

+5.5

RAD

L 77-107

+29.5

NAVY

L 55-88

−2.5

GTWN

L 67-97

+13.5

UMBC

L 59-93

+3.5

DSU

W 53-51

−35.5

NCCU

L 77-88

+21.5

SCST

L 72-74

+5.5

UMES

L 67-70

+3.5

NORF

L 76-103

+35.5

MORG

L 80-89

+13.5

HOW

L 53-72

−21.5

DSU

W 65-47

−20.5

NCCU

W 58-56

−29.5

SCST

W 59-57

−22.5

UMES

W 71-65

+7.5

NORF

L 69-75

+3.5

HOW

L 70-90

+19.5

MORG

L 66-70

−13.5

over 19under 11avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Mercyhurst 2, Coppin St 2, even 1

MercyhurstBetterCoppin St

G J. Lemelman14.4 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61

MERCSmall

G H. Williams7.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27

G D. Kelly TR5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 6

COPPSmall

G C. Sparrow5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 40

G M. Jackson TR0.5 pts · 2 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Piercy6.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 23

F T. Rainwater TR9.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 48

MERCSmall

F N. Lamizana6.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 18

F C. Johnson2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 2

COPPSmall

F T. Koenig5.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 28

MercyhurstBetterCoppin St

MERC offense346th of 366 · -11.9

Even

COPP defense324th of 366 · -8.4

MERC defense272nd of 366 · -6.9

MERCSmall

COPP offense351st of 366 · -12.8

Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-2.6 · 2 players

Bench-0.9 · 3 players

MERCBig

Bench-6.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMERC betterCOPP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Mercyhurst

Guards

J. Lemelman31 minD. Kelly21 min · TRM. Jackson7 min · TRO. Faran4 minB. Conner3 minM. Maxwell-GrimesNew

Forwards

T. Rainwater25 min · TRC. Johnson12 minC. Leman2 minD. AgbaosiNewS. KirkerNew

Coppin St

Guards

H. Williams20 minC. Sparrow19 minJ. Piercy18 minB. Saunders16 minD. Lydner12 minJ. Brown5 min

Forwards

N. Lamizana19 minT. Koenig17 minT. Gapare16 min · TRE. TaylorNewL. LawalNewA. MyersNew

Centers

F. Aire9 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MERC68.3 #310

COPP64.3 #352

Points per possession

MERC1.04 #260

COPP0.93 #362

Pace (possessions)

MERC65.6 #327

COPP69.3 #159

Shooting

Effective FG%

MERC49.5 #269

COPP45.9 #350

3-point %

MERC32.1 #276

COPP30.7 #326

3-point attempt rate

MERC31.1 #338

COPP35.2 #273

Free throw rate

MERC25.6 #361

COPP38.5 #90

Possessions

Turnover rate

MERC14.3 #35

COPP22.3 #363

Offensive rebound rate

MERC26.4 #312

COPP30.4 #183

Assists per game

MERC14.0 #148

COPP11.4 #317

Defense

Points allowed

MERC68.7 #43

COPP81.0 #334

Points allowed per possession

MERC1.04 #76

COPP1.17 #342

Opponent effective FG%

MERC50.1 #107

COPP55.4 #339

Opponent 3-point %

MERC32.3 #80

COPP38.3 #360

Turnovers forced

MERC18.6 #68

COPP17.6 #118

Defensive rebound rate

MERC70.1 #153

COPP65.3 #333

Steals per game

MERC7.0 #130

COPP6.0 #233

Blocks per game

MERC3.8 #94

COPP3.5 #143

MERC		COPP
Scoring
68.3 #310	Points per game	64.3 #352
1.04 #260	Points per possession	0.93 #362
65.6 #327	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #159
Shooting
49.5 #269	Effective FG%	45.9 #350
32.1 #276	3-point %	30.7 #326
31.1 #338	3-point attempt rate	35.2 #273
25.6 #361	Free throw rate	38.5 #90
Possessions
14.3 #35	Turnover rate	22.3 #363
26.4 #312	Offensive rebound rate	30.4 #183
14.0 #148	Assists per game	11.4 #317
Defense
68.7 #43	Points allowed	81.0 #334
1.04 #76	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #342
50.1 #107	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #339
32.3 #80	Opponent 3-point %	38.3 #360
18.6 #68	Turnovers forced	17.6 #118
70.1 #153	Defensive rebound rate	65.3 #333
7.0 #130	Steals per game	6.0 #233
3.8 #94	Blocks per game	3.5 #143

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercyhurst

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Long Island70–79
Wvs Stonehill56–51
Wvs FDU70–61
W@ Stonehill75–72
L@ C Connecticut78–80

A week or more of rest.

Coppin St

6-24 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Morgan St66–70
L@ Howard70–90
Lvs Norfolk St69–75
Wvs MD Eastern71–65
W@ SC State59–57

A week or more of rest.

Mercyhurst Lakers at Coppin State Eagles

What could decide it: MERC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Mercyhurst

Coppin St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Mercyhurst

Coppin St