Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Mississippi State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 7, 7:00 PM ETHumphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Alabama A&M and Mississippi St
AAMU	This season	MSST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSST 89–63 · win probability MSST 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSST has more of the edges

AAMU 3, MSST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

AAMU has played the 363rd-hardest schedule, MSST the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MSSTBig

MSST offense vs AAMU defense

Offense 34th of 366 against a defense 305th, on the model’s ratings

MSSTBig

AAMU offense vs MSST defense

Offense 325th of 366 against a defense 88th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: AAMU plays 67.6 a game (250th fastest), MSST 72.3 (29th). Faster games mean more points

MSSTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: AAMU 49.2 and allows 52.1; MSST 51.5 and allows 50.9

AAMUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: AAMU 16.5%, MSST 16.0%. Forced: AAMU 16.6%, MSST 12.8%

AAMUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: AAMU 45.4, MSST 30.6. Allowed: AAMU 38.6, MSST 32.3

MSSTSmall

Home court

MSST at home. This season: MSST 0-0 at home, AAMU 0-0 away

AAMUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: AAMU 51%, MSST 23%. Transfers in: AAMU 2, MSST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

AAMU hits 35.0% and allows 35.4%; MSST hits 32.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 34.0% and 40.1% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: AAMU 27.4%, MSST 29.8%. Defensive: AAMU 70.5%, MSST 69.3%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MSST -26.5	—
Total	—	152.4	—
Projected score	—	AAMU 63 · MSST 89.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSST -15.6	—
1H total	71.3	—
1H projected score	AAMU 27.8 · MSST 43.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AAMU LWLWL	16-14	53%	5-7	—
MSST LLLLL	10-22	31%	4-12	—

Venue/role: AAMU away; MSST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
AAMU OUOOU	15-15	50%	15-15
MSST UUOOU	16-16	50%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AAMU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MSST	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Alabama A&M

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ UGA	L45–93LU

Mississippi St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ MARQ	W58–55LU
Dec 15	vs MVSU	W82–52LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama A&M

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

L W W L L W L W L L L W L W W L W W L L W W W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L W W L W W L W W L L W L W W L W W L L W L W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U U O U U O U O O O U U O U O U U O O U U O U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@IU	L 51-98	+30.5	L −16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 13	vsCHSO	W 68-64	-1.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 132
Nov 16	vsLIN	W 74-65	-3.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 139
Nov 28	@CLEM	L 56-92	+27.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 30	@CCU	L 60-67	+7.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 127
Dec 3	vsTNST	W 80-53	+4.5	W +31.5	147.5	U 133
Dec 7	@LIP	L 58-92	+11.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 15	vsUNA	W 68-60	+4.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 128
Dec 17	vsMISS	L 66-80	+20.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 146
Dec 21	vsUTC	L 66-73	+2.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 139
Jan 3	@UAPB	L 83-95	-1.5	L −13.5	149.5	O 178
Jan 5	@MVSU	W 71-51	-10.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 122
Jan 10	vsALCN	L 62-64	-9.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 126
Jan 12	vsJKST	W 100-91	-6.5	W +2.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 19	vsALST	W 73-69	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 142
Jan 24	@TXSO	L 74-89	-1.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 163
Jan 27	@PV	W 80-60	+2.5	W +22.5	152.5	U 140
Jan 31	vsFAMU	W 72-65	-3.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 2	vsBCU	L 62-80	+2.5	L −15.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 7	@SOU	L 68-81	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 9	@GRAM	W 66-58	+4.5	W +12.5	136.5	U 124
Feb 14	vsMVSU	W 72-65	-15.5	L −8.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 16	vsUAPB	W 82-70	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 19	@FAMU	W 63-61	+1.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 124
Feb 21	@BCU	L 76-85	+6.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 161
Feb 28	vsALST	L 88-89	-1.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 177
Mar 3	vsGRAM	W 77-63	-2.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 140
Mar 5	vsSOU	L 85-88	+1.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 173
Mar 12	vsTXSO	W 85-74	-1.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsPV	L 55-74	-1.5	L −20.5	140.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-98

−16.5

CHSO

W 68-64

+2.5

LIN

W 74-65

+5.5

CLEM

L 56-92

−8.5

CCU

L 60-67

+0.5

TNST

W 80-53

+31.5

LIP

L 58-92

−22.5

UNA

W 68-60

+12.5

MISS

L 66-80

+6.5

UTC

L 66-73

−4.5

UAPB

L 83-95

−13.5

MVSU

W 71-51

+9.5

ALCN

L 62-64

−11.5

JKST

W 100-91

+2.5

ALST

W 73-69

+5.5

TXSO

L 74-89

−16.5

W 80-60

+22.5

FAMU

W 72-65

+3.5

BCU

L 62-80

−15.5

SOU

L 68-81

−6.5

GRAM

W 66-58

+12.5

MVSU

W 72-65

−8.5

UAPB

W 82-70

+8.5

FAMU

W 63-61

+3.5

BCU

L 76-85

−2.5

ALST

L 88-89

−2.5

GRAM

W 77-63

+11.5

SOU

L 85-88

−1.5

TXSO

W 85-74

+9.5

L 55-74

−20.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-98

+1.5

CHSO

W 68-64

−20.5

LIN

W 74-65

−10.5

CLEM

L 56-92

+6.5

CCU

L 60-67

−13.5

TNST

W 80-53

−14.5

LIP

L 58-92

+3.5

UNA

W 68-60

−12.5

MISS

L 66-80

+10.5

UTC

L 66-73

+0.5

UAPB

L 83-95

+28.5

MVSU

W 71-51

−13.5

ALCN

L 62-64

−14.5

JKST

W 100-91

+50.5

ALST

W 73-69

−4.5

TXSO

L 74-89

+17.5

W 80-60

−12.5

FAMU

W 72-65

−1.5

BCU

L 62-80

+0.5

SOU

L 68-81

+5.5

GRAM

W 66-58

−12.5

MVSU

W 72-65

−1.5

UAPB

W 82-70

+7.5

FAMU

W 63-61

−15.5

BCU

L 76-85

+18.5

ALST

L 88-89

+33.5

GRAM

W 77-63

−0.5

SOU

L 85-88

+27.5

TXSO

W 85-74

+16.5

L 55-74

−11.5

over 15under 15avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mississippi St

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

10-22

31% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W L W L L W L W L W W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-2231%

L L L L L L L W L W L W W W W L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

U O U O O U O O U O O U U O U O O U U U U O U U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUNA	W 86-62	-24.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 10	vsISU	L 80-96	+5.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 15	vsSELA	W 75-68	-27.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsKSU	L 77-98	-2.5	L −23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsUNM	L 78-80	-6.5	L −8.5	151.5	O 158
Nov 24	vsNOLA	W 81-78	-23.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 159
Nov 28	vsSMU	L 81-87	-1.5	L −7.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 3	@GT	W 85-73	-1.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 7	vsSF	L 62-65	-4.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 127
Dec 13	vsUTAH	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 16	vsLIU	W 87-83	-16.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsMEM	W 71-66	-3.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 29	vsALST	W 94-56	-17.5	W +20.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 3	@TEX	W 101-98	+9.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 199
Jan 7	vsOU	W 72-53	-1.5	W +17.5	158.5	U 125
Jan 10	@UK	L 68-92	+10.5	L −13.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 13	vsALA	L 82-97	+4.5	L −10.5	171.5	O 179
Jan 17	vsMISS	L 67-68	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 135
Jan 21	@TA&M	L 68-88	+8.5	L −11.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	vsVAN	L 56-88	+7.5	L −24.5	159.5	U 144
Jan 28	@LSU	W 80-66	+7.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	@MIZ	L 79-84	+6.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 163
Feb 7	vsARK	L 68-88	+5.5	L −14.5	163.5	U 156
Feb 11	vsTENN	L 64-73	+8.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	@MISS	W 90-78	+3.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 168
Feb 18	vsAUB	W 91-85	+5.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 176
Feb 21	@SC	L 89-97	-1.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 186
Feb 25	@ALA	L 75-100	+12.5	L −12.5	176.5	U 175
Feb 28	vsMIZ	L 64-88	+1.5	L −22.5	154.5	U 152
Mar 3	@FLA	L 74-108	+20.5	L −13.5	161.5	O 182
Mar 7	vsUGA	L 96-102	+5.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 198
Mar 11	vsAUB	L 61-79	+8.5	L −9.5	160.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−0.5

ISU

L 80-96

−10.5

SELA

W 75-68

−20.5

KSU

L 77-98

−23.5

UNM

L 78-80

−8.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−20.5

SMU

L 81-87

−7.5

W 85-73

+10.5

L 62-65

−7.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+6.5

LIU

W 87-83

−12.5

MEM

W 71-66

+1.5

ALST

W 94-56

+20.5

TEX

W 101-98

+12.5

W 72-53

+17.5

L 68-92

−13.5

ALA

L 82-97

−10.5

MISS

L 67-68

−4.5

TA&M

L 68-88

−11.5

VAN

L 56-88

−24.5

LSU

W 80-66

+21.5

MIZ

L 79-84

+1.5

ARK

L 68-88

−14.5

TENN

L 64-73

−0.5

MISS

W 90-78

+15.5

AUB

W 91-85

+11.5

L 89-97

−9.5

ALA

L 75-100

−12.5

MIZ

L 64-88

−22.5

FLA

L 74-108

−13.5

UGA

L 96-102

−0.5

AUB

L 61-79

−9.5

covered 10didn’t cover 22avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−3.5

ISU

L 80-96

+25.5

SELA

W 75-68

−7.5

KSU

L 77-98

+10.5

UNM

L 78-80

+6.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−1.5

SMU

L 81-87

+5.5

W 85-73

+7.5

L 62-65

−23.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+2.5

LIU

W 87-83

+17.5

MEM

W 71-66

−16.5

ALST

W 94-56

−4.5

TEX

W 101-98

+41.5

W 72-53

−33.5

L 68-92

+7.5

ALA

L 82-97

+7.5

MISS

L 67-68

−12.5

TA&M

L 68-88

−7.5

VAN

L 56-88

−15.5

LSU

W 80-66

−8.5

MIZ

L 79-84

+16.5

ARK

L 68-88

−7.5

TENN

L 64-73

−10.5

MISS

W 90-78

+21.5

AUB

W 91-85

+20.5

L 89-97

+34.5

ALA

L 75-100

−1.5

MIZ

L 64-88

−2.5

FLA

L 74-108

+20.5

UGA

L 96-102

+30.5

AUB

L 61-79

−20.5

over 16under 16avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mississippi St has the better starters

Position by position: Alabama A&M 0, Mississippi St 4, even 1

Alabama A&MBetterMississippi St

G S. Pissis10.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 38

MSSTBig

G J. Hubbard22.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 99

G J. Graham9.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 41

MSSTBig

G R. Johnson TR14.8 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 86

G J. Edwards TR6.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 9

MSSTBig

G T. Simpkins TR9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83

G G. Kincy3.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 3

MSSTSmall

F K. Sanders TR5.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31

G B. Abdur-Rahman4.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 65

Even

C N. Okafor TR11.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 71

Alabama A&MBetterMississippi St

AAMU offense325th of 366 · -10.6

MSSTBig

MSST defense88th of 366 · -0.1

AAMU defense305th of 366 · -7.8

MSSTBig

MSST offense34th of 366 · +5.5

Backcourt-8.1 · 5 players

MSSTBig

Backcourt+9.6 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players

Bench-3.2 · 3 players

MSSTSmall

Bench-2.0 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestAAMU betterMSST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Alabama A&M

Guards

S. Pissis30 minJ. Graham25 minJ. Edwards23 min · TRG. Kincy19 minB. Abdur-Rahman12 minN. Johnson10 min · TR

Forwards

S. Onu7 minS. WalkerNewD. MeriwetherNewK. PaulNewD. BrownNew

Mississippi St

Guards

J. Hubbard33 minR. Johnson29 min · TRT. Simpkins25 min · TRK. Grace12 minA. Magee11 min · TRC. PaulNew

Forwards

K. Sanders20 min · TRT. Bassong19 min · TRT. ReedNew

Centers

N. Okafor23 min · TRG. CholNewT. BartlettNewT. ReedNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

AAMU71.4 #261

MSST77.6 #103

Points per possession

AAMU1.05 #240

MSST1.07 #205

Pace (possessions)

AAMU67.6 #250

MSST72.3 #29

Shooting

Effective FG%

AAMU49.2 #281

MSST51.5 #172

3-point %

AAMU35.0 #114

MSST32.4 #262

3-point attempt rate

AAMU34.0 #295

MSST40.1 #169

Free throw rate

AAMU45.4 #3

MSST30.6 #288

Possessions

Turnover rate

AAMU16.5 #167

MSST16.0 #143

Offensive rebound rate

AAMU27.4 #283

MSST29.8 #210

Assists per game

AAMU11.2 #328

MSST12.8 #231

Defense

Points allowed

AAMU73.9 #152

MSST81.8 #338

Points allowed per possession

AAMU1.09 #212

MSST1.13 #299

Opponent effective FG%

AAMU52.1 #220

MSST50.9 #154

Opponent 3-point %

AAMU35.4 #272

MSST33.9 #179

Turnovers forced

AAMU16.6 #176

MSST12.8 #358

Defensive rebound rate

AAMU70.5 #138

MSST69.3 #190

Steals per game

AAMU6.2 #211

MSST5.8 #260

Blocks per game

AAMU2.7 #271

MSST4.4 #44

AAMU		MSST
Scoring
71.4 #261	Points per game	77.6 #103
1.05 #240	Points per possession	1.07 #205
67.6 #250	Pace (possessions)	72.3 #29
Shooting
49.2 #281	Effective FG%	51.5 #172
35.0 #114	3-point %	32.4 #262
34.0 #295	3-point attempt rate	40.1 #169
45.4 #3	Free throw rate	30.6 #288
Possessions
16.5 #167	Turnover rate	16.0 #143
27.4 #283	Offensive rebound rate	29.8 #210
11.2 #328	Assists per game	12.8 #231
Defense
73.9 #152	Points allowed	81.8 #338
1.09 #212	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #299
52.1 #220	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #154
35.4 #272	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #179
16.6 #176	Turnovers forced	12.8 #358
70.5 #138	Defensive rebound rate	69.3 #190
6.2 #211	Steals per game	5.8 #260
2.7 #271	Blocks per game	4.4 #44

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alabama A&M

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View55–74
Wvs Texas Southern85–74
Lvs Southern85–88
Wvs Grambling77–63
Lvs Alabama St88–89

A week or more of rest.

Mississippi St

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Auburn61–79
Lvs Georgia96–102
L@ Florida74–108
Lvs Missouri64–88
L@ Alabama75–100

A week or more of rest.

Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Mississippi State Bulldogs

What could decide it: MSST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama A&M

Mississippi St

Mississippi St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Alabama A&M

Mississippi St