1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Dec 7
  3. FGCU @ LMU
NCAAB · Mon, Dec 7

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles at Loyola Marymount Lions

Gersten Pavilion · at LMU
#266FGCUFGCU
@
#121LMULMU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
FGCUThis seasonLMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LMU 79–67 · win probability LMU 86%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LMU has more of the edges

FGCU 1, LMU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FGCUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FGCU 31.1%, LMU 26.7%. Defensive: FGCU 71.8%, LMU 68.0%
LMUBig
FGCU offense vs LMU defense
Offense 259th of 366 against a defense 104th, on the model’s ratings
LMUBig
LMU offense vs FGCU defense
Offense 152nd of 366 against a defense 274th, on the model’s ratings
LMUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: FGCU 52.0 and allows 53.4; LMU 51.9 and allows 48.9
LMUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: FGCU 29.1, LMU 31.1. Allowed: FGCU 38.3, LMU 32.5
Context
Schedule so far
FGCU has played the 231st-hardest schedule, LMU the 131st. A record against a soft schedule means less
LMUSmall
Three-pointers
FGCU hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%; LMU hits 34.8% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 38.4% and 40.4% of their shots
LMUSmall
Home court
LMU at home. This season: LMU 0-0 at home, FGCU 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FGCU 16.0%, LMU 17.4%. Forced: FGCU 16.4%, LMU 16.6%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: FGCU plays 69.9 a game (122nd fastest), LMU 68.9 (185th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FGCU 25%, LMU 22%. Transfers in: FGCU 3, LMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LMU -12.5—
Total—145.4—
Projected score—FGCU 66.5 · LMU 78.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLMU -7.3—
1H total68.0—
1H projected scoreFGCU 30.4 · LMU 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

LMU has the better starters

Position by position: FGCU 0, LMU 3, even 2
FGCUBetterLMU
G E. Brooks TR12.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 47
LMUSmall
G Z. Sensley TR10.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 72
G D. Williams6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 21
LMUBig
G A. Wright TR7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59
G G. Washington2.6 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Humphrey-Rembert TR7.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 24
F G. Tanner2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
No call
F A. McBride7.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 50
C T. Guillouette2.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26
LMUSmall
F D. Rivers TR8.6 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 48
FGCUBetterLMU
FGCU offense259th of 366 · -8.0
LMUBig
LMU defense104th of 366 · -1.0
FGCU defense274th of 366 · -6.9
LMUSmall
LMU offense152nd of 366 · -4.6
Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players
LMUBig
Backcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
FGCUSmall
Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players
Bench-0.7 · 3 players
LMUSmall
Bench+1.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestFGCU betterLMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
FGCU
Guards
E. Brooks30 min · TRD. Williams19 minG. Washington8 minM. McCarthy2 minB. WashingtonNewN. SermpezisNew
Forwards
G. Tanner8 minC. Outlaw2 min · TRB. LucasNewE. BarlowNewC. KoniecznyNewT. WestercampNew
Centers
T. Guillouette13 minJ. Houser6 min · TR
LMU
Guards
Z. Sensley25 min · TRA. Wright22 min · TRA. Thomas14 minJ. Miles10 min · TRM. Mosley7 min · TRC. Smith2 min
Forwards
C. Humphrey-Rembert31 min · TRA. McBride27 minD. Rivers20 min · TRJ. Porter17 min · TRA. Sigiscar16 min · TRG. Tupy2 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FGCULMU
Scoring
76.6 #130Points per game72.2 #236
1.10 #138Points per possession1.04 #263
69.9 #122Pace (possessions)68.9 #185
Shooting
52.0 #147Effective FG%51.9 #152
33.2 #2193-point %34.8 #130
38.4 #2023-point attempt rate40.4 #162
29.1 #331Free throw rate31.1 #280
Possessions
16.0 #135Turnover rate17.4 #234
31.1 #161Offensive rebound rate26.7 #307
14.5 #115Assists per game12.7 #234
Defense
78.0 #266Points allowed72.7 #122
1.11 #254Points allowed per possession1.06 #103
53.4 #280Opponent effective FG%48.9 #60
35.5 #275Opponent 3-point %34.6 #225
16.4 #191Turnovers forced16.6 #178
71.8 #73Defensive rebound rate68.0 #258
7.7 #66Steals per game6.0 #236
3.4 #153Blocks per game3.9 #81
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

FGCU

14-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs C Arkansas63–73
  • Wvs Lipscomb77–53
  • Wvs North Alabama69–58
  • L@ Stetson63–78
  • L@ North Florida70–76

A week or more of rest.

LMU

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San Diego62–66
  • Lvs Seattle U66–71
  • Wvs Washington St67–66
  • W@ San Diego77–65
  • L@ Pepperdine89–90

A week or more of rest.