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  2. Sun, Dec 13
  3. LMU vs MCN
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 13

Loyola Marymount Lions vs McNeese Cowboys

Lee's Family Forum · Neutral site
#121LMULMU
vs
#127MCNMcNeese
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LMUThis seasonMCN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MCN 72–71 · win probability MCN 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 142.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MCN has more of the edges

LMU 1, MCN 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MCNBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LMU 17.4%, MCN 14.2%. Forced: LMU 16.6%, MCN 24.4%
Context
Schedule so far
LMU has played the 131st-hardest schedule, MCN the 258th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MCNSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LMU 26.7%, MCN 35.1%. Defensive: LMU 68.0%, MCN 65.1%
LMUSmall
MCN offense vs LMU defense
Offense 153rd of 366 against a defense 104th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: LMU plays 68.9 a game (185th fastest), MCN 67.1 (276th). Faster games mean more points
Even
LMU offense vs MCN defense
Offense 152nd of 366 against a defense 117th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LMU 51.9 and allows 48.9; MCN 50.7 and allows 49.3
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: LMU 31.1, MCN 37.4. Allowed: LMU 32.5, MCN 42.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LMU 22%, MCN 33%. Transfers in: LMU 8, MCN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
LMU hits 34.8% and allows 34.6%; MCN hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 40.4% and 35.2% of their shots
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MCN -1.7—
Total—142.7—
Projected score—LMU 70.5 · MCN 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMCN -0.9—
1H total66.8—
1H projected scoreLMU 33 · MCN 33.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: LMU 2, McNeese 2, even 1
LMUBetterMcNeese
G Z. Sensley TR10.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 72
MCNSmall
G L. Johnson16.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 98
G A. Wright TR7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59
LMUSmall
G C. Cherenfant3.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 38
F C. Humphrey-Rembert TR7.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 24
No call
G D. Warren TR1.2 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
F A. McBride7.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 50
LMUSmall
F J. Colbert5.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 29
F D. Rivers TR8.6 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 48
MCNSmall
F C. Chest TR2.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 71
LMUBetterMcNeese
LMU offense152nd of 366 · -4.6
Even
MCN defense117th of 366 · -1.6
LMU defense104th of 366 · -1.0
Even
MCN offense153rd of 366 · -4.7
Backcourt+0.5 · 2 players
MCNSmall
Backcourt+3.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players
MCNSmall
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
Bench+1.1 · 5 players
LMUSmall
Bench-0.3 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestLMU betterMCN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
LMU
Guards
Z. Sensley25 min · TRA. Wright22 min · TRA. Thomas14 minJ. Miles10 min · TRM. Mosley7 min · TRC. Smith2 min
Forwards
C. Humphrey-Rembert31 min · TRA. McBride27 minD. Rivers20 min · TRJ. Porter17 min · TRA. Sigiscar16 min · TRG. Tupy2 min
McNeese
Guards
L. Johnson26 minC. Cherenfant16 minD. Warren8 min · TRE. Moore5 min · TRJ. Rembert4 minJ. Dean-Vines3 min · TR
Forwards
J. Colbert20 minC. Chest13 min · TRA. Maluk7 min · TRC. NituNewM. MadisonNewA. MazouNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LMUMCN
Scoring
72.2 #236Points per game76.6 #131
1.04 #263Points per possession1.14 #69
68.9 #185Pace (possessions)67.1 #276
Shooting
51.9 #152Effective FG%50.7 #202
34.8 #1303-point %31.7 #290
40.4 #1623-point attempt rate35.2 #269
31.1 #280Free throw rate37.4 #114
Possessions
17.4 #234Turnover rate14.2 #28
26.7 #307Offensive rebound rate35.1 #46
12.7 #234Assists per game13.1 #205
Defense
72.7 #122Points allowed67.4 #23
1.06 #103Points allowed per possession1.00 #27
48.9 #60Opponent effective FG%49.3 #76
34.6 #225Opponent 3-point %32.7 #102
16.6 #178Turnovers forced24.4 #1
68.0 #258Defensive rebound rate65.1 #338
6.0 #236Steals per game10.3 #1
3.9 #81Blocks per game4.4 #42
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

LMU

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San Diego62–66
  • Lvs Seattle U66–71
  • Wvs Washington St67–66
  • W@ San Diego77–65
  • L@ Pepperdine89–90

A week or more of rest.

McNeese

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Vanderbilt68–78
  • Wvs SF Austin76–59
  • Wvs UT Rio Grande84–80
  • W@ Nicholls75–65
  • W@ LSU N Orleans66–63

A week or more of rest.