Loyola Marymount Lions at Nevada Wolf Pack: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 PM ETLawlor Events Center · at Nevada

#121LMULMU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: LMU and Nevada
LMU	This season	NEV
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEV 77–67 · win probability NEV 79%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEV has more of the edges

LMU 1, NEV 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NEVBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LMU 26.7%, NEV 32.2%. Defensive: LMU 68.0%, NEV 73.1%

NEVSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LMU 17.4%, NEV 14.8%. Forced: LMU 16.6%, NEV 17.0%

LMUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LMU 51.9 and allows 48.9; NEV 50.0 and allows 51.1

NEVSmall

LMU offense vs NEV defense

Offense 152nd of 366 against a defense 73rd, on the model’s ratings

NEVSmall

Three-pointers

LMU hits 34.8% and allows 34.6%; NEV hits 35.8% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 40.4% and 32.3% of their shots

NEVSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LMU 31.1, NEV 44.8. Allowed: LMU 32.5, NEV 38.9

NEVSmall

Home court

NEV at home. This season: NEV 0-0 at home, LMU 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

LMU has played the 131st-hardest schedule, NEV the 94th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LMU 22%, NEV 38%. Transfers in: LMU 8, NEV 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: LMU plays 68.9 a game (185th fastest), NEV 67.7 (243rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

NEV offense vs LMU defense

Offense 104th of 366 against a defense 104th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NEV -9.4	—
Total	—	144.0	—
Projected score	—	LMU 67.3 · NEV 76.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEV -5.5	—
1H total	67.4	—
1H projected score	LMU 31 · NEV 36.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LMU LWLLL	14-17	45%	5-6	—
NEV WLWWW	22-15	59%	12-7	—

Venue/role: LMU away; NEV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LMU OUUOU	15-16	48%	14-17
NEV OUOUU	20-17	54%	24-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LMU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
NEV	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

LMU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs MCN	No recent meeting

Nevada

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs SHSU	W91–75WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LMU 2–2 NEVSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · LMU 3-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2024-25	NEV 64 @ LMU 68	LMU +7.5	LMU W
Dec 2, 2023-24	LMU 59 @ NEV 73	NEV -8.5	NEV W
Dec 3, 2022-23	NEV 52 @ LMU 64	LMU +2.5	LMU W
Dec 18, 2021-22	LMU 63 @ NEV 68	NEV -6	LMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

LMU

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

14-17

45% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

W W W W W L W L L L W W L W L L W L L L L L L W W L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1745%

L W W W W L W L L L W W W W W L W L L L L L L W W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1648%

U O U U O U U O O U O U O O O U O O O U U U O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsEWU	W 70-62	-9.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsUAPB	W 94-72	-19.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@UTEP	W 71-58	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 14	vsTROY	W 74-63	-4.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 137
Nov 17	@UCSB	W 78-74	+3.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 24	vsFAU	L 65-76	+3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsOHIO	W 70-58	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 128
Nov 28	vsSTBK	L 68-71	-10.5	L −13.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 2	vsSLU	L 70-91	+7.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 16	vsUCSD	L 57-67	+1.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 19	vsUNA	W 91-57	-10.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 148
Dec 23	vsMORG	W 83-56	-23.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 139
Dec 28	vsSMC	L 73-78	+9.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 151
Dec 30	vsPAC	W 80-71	-3.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 2	@WSU	L 76-78	+3.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 154
Jan 4	@GONZ	L 47-82	+25.5	L −9.5	154.5	U 129
Jan 8	vsSF	W 84-82	-1.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 166
Jan 10	@SCU	L 72-103	+11.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 175
Jan 14	@ORST	L 70-76	-1.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsPORT	L 58-71	-8.5	L −21.5	148.5	U 129
Jan 21	@SEA	L 59-69	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 28	vsORST	L 69-72	-5.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 31	vsSCU	L 73-104	+8.5	L −22.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 4	@SF	W 84-75	+8.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 159
Feb 7	vsUSD	W 83-63	-6.5	W +13.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 11	@PAC	L 59-65	+5.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 124
Feb 14	@PEPP	L 89-90	-5.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 21	@USD	W 77-65	-2.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 25	vsWSU	W 67-66	-1.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 133
Feb 28	vsSEA	L 66-71	-1.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 5	vsUSD	L 62-66	-5.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−1.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+2.5

UTEP

W 71-58

+14.5

TROY

W 74-63

+6.5

UCSB

W 78-74

+7.5

FAU

L 65-76

−7.5

OHIO

W 70-58

+8.5

STBK

L 68-71

−13.5

SLU

L 70-91

−13.5

UCSD

L 57-67

−8.5

UNA

W 91-57

+23.5

MORG

W 83-56

+3.5

SMC

L 73-78

+4.5

PAC

W 80-71

+5.5

WSU

L 76-78

+1.5

GONZ

L 47-82

−9.5

W 84-82

+0.5

SCU

L 72-103

−19.5

ORST

L 70-76

−7.5

PORT

L 58-71

−21.5

SEA

L 59-69

−5.5

ORST

L 69-72

−8.5

SCU

L 73-104

−22.5

W 84-75

+17.5

USD

W 83-63

+13.5

PAC

L 59-65

−0.5

PEPP

L 89-90

−6.5

USD

W 77-65

+9.5

WSU

W 67-66

−0.5

SEA

L 66-71

−6.5

USD

L 62-66

−9.5

covered 14didn’t cover 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−21.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+8.5

UTEP

W 71-58

−15.5

TROY

W 74-63

−3.5

UCSB

W 78-74

+6.5

FAU

L 65-76

−3.5

OHIO

W 70-58

−16.5

STBK

L 68-71

+0.5

SLU

L 70-91

+10.5

UCSD

L 57-67

−26.5

UNA

W 91-57

+7.5

MORG

W 83-56

−5.5

SMC

L 73-78

+7.5

PAC

W 80-71

+11.5

WSU

L 76-78

+11.5

GONZ

L 47-82

−25.5

W 84-82

+24.5

SCU

L 72-103

+21.5

ORST

L 70-76

+5.5

PORT

L 58-71

−19.5

SEA

L 59-69

−13.5

ORST

L 69-72

−0.5

SCU

L 73-104

+23.5

W 84-75

+13.5

USD

W 83-63

−5.5

PAC

L 59-65

−17.5

PEPP

L 89-90

+31.5

USD

W 77-65

−7.5

WSU

W 67-66

−16.5

SEA

L 66-71

+0.5

USD

L 62-66

−17.5

over 15under 16avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nevada

37 games played

Straight up

24-13

65% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-17

54% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1365%

W W W L L W L W W W W W W W L W L W W L W W L W L L W W L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W L L L L W L W W W L W W L L W W W W W W W W L L L W W L L L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1754%

U O O O O U O O U U O O U U U O U O O O U O O U U O O U O O U U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLT	W 77-50	-9.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 8	vsPAC	W 78-77	-13.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsSIU	W 86-81	-11.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 15	@SCU	L 83-98	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsUCD	L 71-75	-12.5	L −16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 22	vsUCSB	W 77-64	-5.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 27	vsWASH	L 66-83	+3.5	L −13.5	145.5	O 149
Nov 28	vsSF	W 81-65	+5.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 146
Dec 2	vsUCSD	W 76-70	-5.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 7	@WSU	W 78-64	+2.5	W +16.5	145.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsDUQ	W 78-75	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 153
Dec 20	vsBOIS	W 81-66	+3.5	W +18.5	141.5	O 147
Dec 30	@CSU	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@FRES	W 66-65	-4.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 6	vsSDSU	L 68-73	-1.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsWYO	W 92-83	-3.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 175
Jan 14	@USU	L 62-71	+13.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 17	@AF	W 81-66	-14.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 20	vsSJSU	W 87-54	-16.5	W +16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@UNM	L 73-80	+8.5	W +1.5	150.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsGCU	W 66-60	-3.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 126
Jan 30	vsUNLV	W 89-76	-7.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 165
Feb 3	@BOIS	L 87-91	+6.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 178
Feb 7	vsFRES	W 69-59	-11.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 14	@SDSU	L 57-71	+7.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 128
Feb 17	@SJSU	L 71-87	-10.5	L −26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	vsUSU	W 80-77	+5.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsUNM	W 67-60	-1.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 127
Feb 28	@UNLV	L 83-85	-1.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 168
Mar 3	@WYO	L 73-83	-1.5	L −11.5	143.5	O 156
Mar 7	vsAF	W 74-59	-24.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsAF	W 80-45	-19.5	W +15.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 12	vsGCU	W 84-80	+3.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 164
Mar 13	vsUSU	L 66-79	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 145
Mar 18	vsMUR	W 89-75	-8.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 164
Mar 21	vsLIB	W 73-63	-7.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Mar 25	@AUB	L 69-75	+8.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 77-50

+17.5

PAC

W 78-77

−12.5

SIU

W 86-81

−6.5

SCU

L 83-98

−8.5

UCD

L 71-75

−16.5

UCSB

W 77-64

+7.5

WASH

L 66-83

−13.5

W 81-65

+21.5

UCSD

W 76-70

+0.5

WSU

W 78-64

+16.5

DUQ

W 78-75

−2.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+18.5

CSU

W 75-62

+14.5

FRES

W 66-65

−3.5

SDSU

L 68-73

−6.5

WYO

W 92-83

+5.5

USU

L 62-71

+4.5

W 81-66

+0.5

SJSU

W 87-54

+16.5

UNM

L 73-80

+1.5

GCU

W 66-60

+2.5

UNLV

W 89-76

+5.5

BOIS

L 87-91

+2.5

FRES

W 69-59

−1.5

SDSU

L 57-71

−6.5

SJSU

L 71-87

−26.5

USU

W 80-77

+8.5

UNM

W 67-60

+5.5

UNLV

L 83-85

−3.5

WYO

L 73-83

−11.5

W 74-59

−9.5

W 80-45

+15.5

GCU

W 84-80

+7.5

USU

L 66-79

−6.5

MUR

W 89-75

+5.5

LIB

W 73-63

+2.5

AUB

L 69-75

+2.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 77-50

−9.5

PAC

W 78-77

+15.5

SIU

W 86-81

+14.5

SCU

L 83-98

+36.5

UCD

L 71-75

+2.5

UCSB

W 77-64

−6.5

WASH

L 66-83

+3.5

W 81-65

+3.5

UCSD

W 76-70

−3.5

WSU

W 78-64

−3.5

DUQ

W 78-75

+1.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+5.5

CSU

W 75-62

−2.5

FRES

W 66-65

−15.5

SDSU

L 68-73

−0.5

WYO

W 92-83

+31.5

USU

L 62-71

−14.5

W 81-66

+12.5

SJSU

W 87-54

+3.5

UNM

L 73-80

+2.5

GCU

W 66-60

−17.5

UNLV

W 89-76

+17.5

BOIS

L 87-91

+36.5

FRES

W 69-59

−21.5

SDSU

L 57-71

−11.5

SJSU

L 71-87

+16.5

USU

W 80-77

+10.5

UNM

W 67-60

−21.5

UNLV

L 83-85

+17.5

WYO

L 73-83

+12.5

W 74-59

−11.5

W 80-45

−15.5

GCU

W 84-80

+26.5

USU

L 66-79

−0.5

MUR

W 89-75

+4.5

LIB

W 73-63

−10.5

AUB

L 69-75

−7.5

over 20under 17avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nevada has the better starters

Position by position: LMU 0, Nevada 3, even 2

LMUBetterNevada

G Z. Sensley TR10.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 72

Even

G S. Phipps TR13.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 77

G A. Wright TR7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59

Even

G K. Kensie TR10.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 54

F C. Humphrey-Rembert TR7.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 24

NEVSmall

G P. Bandelj TR12.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 57

F A. McBride7.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 50

NEVSmall

G V. Weems10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 84

F D. Rivers TR8.6 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 48

NEVBig

F E. Price12.8 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 91

LMUBetterNevada

LMU offense152nd of 366 · -4.6

NEVSmall

NEV defense73rd of 366 · +0.7

LMU defense104th of 366 · -1.0

Even

NEV offense104th of 366 · -1.4

Backcourt+0.5 · 2 players

NEVSmall

Backcourt+2.1 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players

NEVBig

Frontcourt+3.4 · 1 player

Bench+1.1 · 5 players

LMUSmall

Bench-1.3 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestLMU betterNEV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

LMU

Guards

Z. Sensley25 min · TRA. Wright22 min · TRA. Thomas14 minJ. Miles10 min · TRM. Mosley7 min · TRC. Smith2 min

Forwards

C. Humphrey-Rembert31 min · TRA. McBride27 minD. Rivers20 min · TRJ. Porter17 min · TRA. Sigiscar16 min · TRG. Tupy2 min

Nevada

Guards

S. Phipps34 min · TRK. Kensie31 min · TRP. Bandelj31 min · TRV. Weems25 minP. White14 minM. Walker8 min

Forwards

E. Price30 minH. LucasNewK. SnyderNew

Centers

S. Majok12 min · TRC. Lath4 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LMU72.2 #236

NEV76.0 #141

Points per possession

LMU1.04 #263

NEV1.12 #96

Pace (possessions)

LMU68.9 #185

NEV67.7 #243

Shooting

Effective FG%

LMU51.9 #152

NEV50.0 #236

3-point %

LMU34.8 #130

NEV35.8 #70

3-point attempt rate

LMU40.4 #162

NEV32.3 #326

Free throw rate

LMU31.1 #280

NEV44.8 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

LMU17.4 #234

NEV14.8 #56

Offensive rebound rate

LMU26.7 #307

NEV32.2 #119

Assists per game

LMU12.7 #234

NEV14.5 #119

Defense

Points allowed

LMU72.7 #122

NEV71.5 #92

Points allowed per possession

LMU1.06 #103

NEV1.06 #101

Opponent effective FG%

LMU48.9 #60

NEV51.1 #166

Opponent 3-point %

LMU34.6 #225

NEV33.7 #168

Turnovers forced

LMU16.6 #178

NEV17.0 #150

Defensive rebound rate

LMU68.0 #258

NEV73.1 #33

Steals per game

LMU6.0 #236

NEV6.6 #168

Blocks per game

LMU3.9 #81

NEV3.8 #106

LMU		NEV
Scoring
72.2 #236	Points per game	76.0 #141
1.04 #263	Points per possession	1.12 #96
68.9 #185	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #243
Shooting
51.9 #152	Effective FG%	50.0 #236
34.8 #130	3-point %	35.8 #70
40.4 #162	3-point attempt rate	32.3 #326
31.1 #280	Free throw rate	44.8 #6
Possessions
17.4 #234	Turnover rate	14.8 #56
26.7 #307	Offensive rebound rate	32.2 #119
12.7 #234	Assists per game	14.5 #119
Defense
72.7 #122	Points allowed	71.5 #92
1.06 #103	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #101
48.9 #60	Opponent effective FG%	51.1 #166
34.6 #225	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #168
16.6 #178	Turnovers forced	17.0 #150
68.0 #258	Defensive rebound rate	73.1 #33
6.0 #236	Steals per game	6.6 #168
3.9 #81	Blocks per game	3.8 #106

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

LMU

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs San Diego62–66
Lvs Seattle U66–71
Wvs Washington St67–66
W@ San Diego77–65
L@ Pepperdine89–90

A week or more of rest.

Nevada

24-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Auburn69–75
Wvs Liberty73–63
Wvs Murray St89–75
Lvs Utah State66–79
Wvs Grand Canyon84–80

A week or more of rest.

Loyola Marymount Lions at Nevada Wolf Pack

What could decide it: NEV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

LMU

Nevada

Nevada has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

LMU

Nevada