1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 9
  3. USU @ BYU
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 9

Utah State Aggies at BYU Cougars

Marriott Center · at BYU
#58USUUtah State
@
#24BYUBYU AP #25
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USUThis seasonBYU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BYU 82–75 · win probability BYU 73%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BYU has more of the edges

USU 2, BYU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USU 15.1%, BYU 15.2%. Forced: USU 20.2%, BYU 16.4%
BYUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USU 32.7%, BYU 34.3%. Defensive: USU 67.2%, BYU 70.3%
Context
Schedule so far
USU has played the 83rd-hardest schedule, BYU the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BYUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: USU 38.8, BYU 34.4. Allowed: USU 39.2, BYU 28.9
USUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: USU 56.3 and allows 49.7; BYU 54.4 and allows 51.2
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: USU plays 68.5 a game (207th fastest), BYU 70.6 (90th). Faster games mean more points
BYUSmall
Home court
BYU at home. This season: BYU 0-0 at home, USU 0-0 away
Even
BYU offense vs USU defense
Offense 24th of 366 against a defense 56th, on the model’s ratings
Even
USU offense vs BYU defense
Offense 53rd of 366 against a defense 33rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
USU hits 34.3% and allows 34.5%; BYU hits 34.5% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 40.8% and 39.8% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USU 26%, BYU 35%. Transfers in: USU 6, BYU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BYU -7.0—
Total—156.6—
Projected score—USU 74.8 · BYU 81.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBYU -4.0—
1H total73.2—
1H projected scoreUSU 34.6 · BYU 38.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

BYU has the better starters

Position by position: Utah State 0, BYU 2, even 3
Utah StateBetterBYU
G A. Bates TR12.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.8 ast Score 62
BYUBig
G R. Wright18.1 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.6 ast Score 97
G M. Falslev16.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 3.1 ast Score 98
Even
G C. Chandler TR9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 84
G D. Hall TR5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 49
BYUBig
F J. Kohler TR12.5 pts · 8.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 96
G S. Callaghan TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 33
Even
F J. Wahlin TR5.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 44
F W. Hornseth TR11.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88
No call
F D. Baker7.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
Utah StateBetterBYU
USU offense53rd of 366 · +3.3
Even
BYU defense33rd of 366 · +3.5
USU defense56th of 366 · +1.4
Even
BYU offense24th of 366 · +7.2
Backcourt+2.9 · 4 players
BYUBig
Backcourt+6.9 · 2 players
Frontcourt+2.6 · 1 player
BYUSmall
Frontcourt+4.5 · 3 players
Bench+3.8 · 3 players
USUBig
Bench-0.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUSU betterBYU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Utah State
Guards
A. Bates34 min · TRM. Falslev33 minD. Hall28 min · TRS. Callaghan28 min · TRB. BoeNewA. ReiserNew
Forwards
W. Hornseth27 min · TRC. Turnbull21 min · TRK. Templin19 minC. Mulholland17 min · TRK. TosiNew
Centers
S. FeltsNewB. RobertsNew
BYU
Guards
R. Wright35 minC. Chandler27 min · TRN. PickensNew
Forwards
J. Kohler28 min · TRJ. Wahlin21 min · TRD. Baker20 minT. Betsey18 min · TRK. Mboup16 minB. KozlowskiNew
Centers
A. Stewart1 min · TRP. OstojicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USUBYU
Scoring
81.3 #43Points per game83.5 #22
1.19 #24Points per possession1.18 #32
68.5 #207Pace (possessions)70.6 #90
Shooting
56.3 #18Effective FG%54.4 #54
34.3 #1553-point %34.5 #145
40.8 #1523-point attempt rate39.8 #177
38.8 #83Free throw rate34.4 #198
Possessions
15.1 #72Turnover rate15.2 #78
32.7 #97Offensive rebound rate34.3 #61
17.1 #21Assists per game13.3 #192
Defense
71.2 #78Points allowed75.4 #202
1.04 #72Points allowed per possession1.07 #133
49.7 #87Opponent effective FG%51.2 #174
34.5 #222Opponent 3-point %35.3 #269
20.2 #18Turnovers forced16.4 #194
67.2 #290Defensive rebound rate70.3 #145
8.5 #17Steals per game7.2 #109
2.9 #252Blocks per game4.4 #40
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Utah State

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona66–78
  • Wvs Villanova86–76
  • Wvs San Diego St73–62
  • Wvs Nevada79–66
  • Wvs UNLV80–60

A week or more of rest.

BYU

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas71–79
  • Lvs Houston66–73
  • Wvs West Virginia68–48
  • Wvs Kansas St105–91
  • Wvs Texas Tech82–76

A week or more of rest.