1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. WIN @ USU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Winthrop Eagles at Utah State Aggies

Dee Glen Smith Spectrum · at Utah State
#205WINWinthrop
@
#58USUUtah State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WINThis seasonUSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USU 89–68 · win probability USU 96%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USU has more of the edges

WIN 1, USU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USUBig
USU offense vs WIN defense
Offense 53rd of 366 against a defense 298th, on the model’s ratings
USUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: WIN 49.7 and allows 51.5; USU 56.3 and allows 49.7
WINBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WIN 34.1%, USU 32.7%. Defensive: WIN 72.3%, USU 67.2%
Context
Schedule so far
WIN has played the 206th-hardest schedule, USU the 83rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: WIN plays 72.0 a game (35th fastest), USU 68.5 (207th). Faster games mean more points
USUSmall
WIN offense vs USU defense
Offense 135th of 366 against a defense 56th, on the model’s ratings
USUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WIN 14.7%, USU 15.1%. Forced: WIN 16.6%, USU 20.2%
USUSmall
Home court
USU at home. This season: USU 0-0 at home, WIN 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: WIN 44.0, USU 38.8. Allowed: WIN 39.0, USU 39.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WIN 13%, USU 26%. Transfers in: WIN 5, USU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
WIN hits 33.2% and allows 32.9%; USU hits 34.3% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 44.1% and 40.8% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USU -20.6—
Total—156.8—
Projected score—WIN 68.1 · USU 88.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSU -12.1—
1H total73.3—
1H projected scoreWIN 30.6 · USU 42.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Utah State has the better starters

Position by position: Winthrop 0, Utah State 3, even 2
WinthropBetterUtah State
G M. Davis TR9.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 12
USUBig
G A. Bates TR12.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.8 ast Score 62
G S. Sims TR9.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 30
USUBig
G M. Falslev16.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 3.1 ast Score 98
G A. Smith TR7.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 60
Even
G D. Hall TR5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 49
G S. Hendawy5.2 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast Score 30
Even
G S. Callaghan TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 33
F G. Natsvlishvili TR7.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 1 ast Score 43
USUBig
F W. Hornseth TR11.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88
WinthropBetterUtah State
WIN offense135th of 366 · -3.9
USUSmall
USU defense56th of 366 · +1.4
WIN defense298th of 366 · -7.6
USUBig
USU offense53rd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt-5.8 · 4 players
USUBig
Backcourt+2.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
USUBig
Frontcourt+2.6 · 1 player
Bench-1.7 · 4 players
USUBig
Bench+3.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestWIN betterUSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Winthrop
Guards
M. Davis26 min · TRS. Sims25 min · TRA. Smith18 min · TRS. Hendawy16 minK. Fisher11 min · TRH. Harrison2 min
Forwards
G. Natsvlishvili20 min · TRT. Hamilton7 minT. HarrisNewJ. CwikNew
Utah State
Guards
A. Bates34 min · TRM. Falslev33 minD. Hall28 min · TRS. Callaghan28 min · TRB. BoeNewA. ReiserNew
Forwards
W. Hornseth27 min · TRC. Turnbull21 min · TRK. Templin19 minC. Mulholland17 min · TRK. TosiNew
Centers
S. FeltsNewB. RobertsNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WINUSU
Scoring
81.5 #40Points per game81.3 #43
1.13 #79Points per possession1.19 #24
72.0 #35Pace (possessions)68.5 #207
Shooting
49.7 #250Effective FG%56.3 #18
33.2 #2173-point %34.3 #155
44.1 #883-point attempt rate40.8 #152
44.0 #10Free throw rate38.8 #83
Possessions
14.7 #52Turnover rate15.1 #72
34.1 #63Offensive rebound rate32.7 #97
13.6 #177Assists per game17.1 #21
Defense
77.7 #261Points allowed71.2 #78
1.08 #154Points allowed per possession1.04 #72
51.5 #182Opponent effective FG%49.7 #87
32.9 #113Opponent 3-point %34.5 #222
16.6 #174Turnovers forced20.2 #18
72.3 #55Defensive rebound rate67.2 #290
6.6 #161Steals per game8.5 #17
2.7 #281Blocks per game2.9 #252
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Winthrop

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point76–91
  • Wvs Presbyterian73–71
  • Wvs Charleston So86–81
  • Wvs Presbyterian74–70
  • L@ Charleston So84–86

A week or more of rest.

Utah State

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona66–78
  • Wvs Villanova86–76
  • Wvs San Diego St73–62
  • Wvs Nevada79–66
  • Wvs UNLV80–60

A week or more of rest.