1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Dec 7
  3. W&M @ MISS
NCAAB · Mon, Dec 7

William & Mary Tribe at Ole Miss Rebels

The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss · at Ole Miss
#217W&MWilliam & Mary
@
#46MISSOle Miss
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
W&MThis seasonMISS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MISS 87–67 · win probability MISS 96%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 154.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MISS has more of the edges

W&M 1, MISS 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MISSBig
MISS offense vs W&M defense
Offense 50th of 366 against a defense 289th, on the model’s ratings
W&MBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: W&M 44.0, MISS 33.0. Allowed: W&M 35.5, MISS 41.2
Context
Schedule so far
W&M has played the 171st-hardest schedule, MISS the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MISSBig
W&M offense vs MISS defense
Offense 160th of 366 against a defense 37th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: W&M plays 73.6 a game (14th fastest), MISS 69.5 (145th). Faster games mean more points
MISSSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: W&M 1%, MISS 32%. Transfers in: W&M 7, MISS 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MISSSmall
Home court
MISS at home. This season: MISS 0-0 at home, W&M 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: W&M 54.3 and allows 51.9; MISS 50.5 and allows 50.5
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: W&M 26.0%, MISS 28.3%. Defensive: W&M 68.5%, MISS 67.4%
Even
Three-pointers
W&M hits 33.0% and allows 33.0%; MISS hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 42.8% and 35.5% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: W&M 16.6%, MISS 14.0%. Forced: W&M 18.9%, MISS 16.5%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MISS -20.7—
Total—154.1—
Projected score—W&M 66.7 · MISS 87.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMISS -12.2—
1H total72.0—
1H projected scoreW&M 29.9 · MISS 42.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Ole Miss has the better starters

Position by position: William & Mary 0, Ole Miss 4, even 1
William & MaryBetterOle Miss
G J. Baldwin TR7.7 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.2 ast Score 63
MISSSmall
G C. Stephenson TR18.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90
G J. McIntosh TR6.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48
MISSSmall
G I. Kamardine11.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 78
G T. Blassingame TR3.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 18
MISSBig
G A. Clark TR12.7 pts · 3 reb · 4.9 ast Score 88
G N. Daniels TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Haskins TR11.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76
F S. Sivka TR2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 15
MISSBig
F R. Siulepa TR10 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77
William & MaryBetterOle Miss
W&M offense160th of 366 · -4.8
MISSSmall
MISS defense37th of 366 · +3.0
W&M defense289th of 366 · -7.2
MISSBig
MISS offense50th of 366 · +3.6
Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players
MISSBig
Backcourt+6.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player
MISSBig
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
Bench-0.4 · 3 players
MISSSmall
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestW&M betterMISS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
William & Mary
Guards
J. Baldwin20 min · TRJ. McIntosh17 min · TRT. Blassingame17 min · TRN. Daniels10 min · TRZ. Clark9 min · TRJ. Forsythe4 min · TR
Forwards
S. Sivka11 min · TRB. CarterNewJ. RolandNew
Ole Miss
Guards
C. Stephenson33 min · TRI. Kamardine31 minA. Clark31 min · TRP. Pinkins25 minZ. Day8 minB. HenshallNew
Forwards
D. Haskins28 min · TRR. Siulepa27 min · TRS. Trouet26 min · TRC. Brown13 min · TRD. PattonNew
Centers
M. Handlogten15 min · TRS. Cicic13 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
W&MMISS
Scoring
81.5 #38Points per game75.9 #145
1.11 #116Points per possession1.09 #157
73.6 #14Pace (possessions)69.5 #145
Shooting
54.3 #58Effective FG%50.5 #217
33.0 #2333-point %33.2 #221
42.8 #1203-point attempt rate35.5 #258
44.0 #9Free throw rate33.0 #238
Possessions
16.6 #171Turnover rate14.0 #23
26.0 #324Offensive rebound rate28.3 #253
17.4 #17Assists per game13.5 #178
Defense
78.9 #294Points allowed76.1 #219
1.07 #126Points allowed per possession1.10 #215
51.9 #205Opponent effective FG%50.5 #127
33.0 #126Opponent 3-point %33.5 #151
18.9 #52Turnovers forced16.5 #190
68.5 #229Defensive rebound rate67.4 #285
7.9 #47Steals per game7.1 #118
3.8 #95Blocks per game4.3 #48
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

William & Mary

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Hofstra61–92
  • Wvs Elon72–62
  • Wvs Hampton94–85
  • W@ NC A&T91–88
  • Wvs Northeastern84–77

A week or more of rest.

Ole Miss

15-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arkansas90–93
  • Wvs Alabama80–79
  • Wvs Georgia76–72
  • Wvs Texas76–66
  • Lvs South Carolina61–64

A week or more of rest.