Alabama State Hornets at Oklahoma Sooners: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 7, 9:00 PM ETLloyd Noble Center · at Oklahoma

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Alabama St and Oklahoma
ALST	This season	OU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OU 93–63 · win probability OU 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 155.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OU has more of the edges

ALST 0, OU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

OUBig

OU offense vs ALST defense

Offense 28th of 366 against a defense 330th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

ALST has played the 333rd-hardest schedule, OU the 32nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

OUBig

ALST offense vs OU defense

Offense 269th of 366 against a defense 51st, on the model’s ratings

OUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ALST 47.1 and allows 52.2; OU 54.9 and allows 51.0

OUBig

Three-pointers

ALST hits 31.8% and allows 34.2%; OU hits 36.5% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 38.5% and 43.6% of their shots

OUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ALST 34.9, OU 35.5. Allowed: ALST 42.3, OU 34.9

OUSmall

Home court

OU at home. This season: OU 0-0 at home, ALST 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: ALST plays 71.3 a game (59th fastest), OU 69.4 (154th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ALST 18.3%, OU 14.3%. Forced: ALST 18.7%, OU 15.5%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ALST 32%, OU 43%. Transfers in: ALST 3, OU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ALST 31.9%, OU 32.8%. Defensive: ALST 68.5%, OU 67.1%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	OU -30.0	—
Total	—	155.8	—
Projected score	—	ALST 62.9 · OU 92.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OU -17.7	—
1H total	72.8	—
1H projected score	ALST 27.5 · OU 45.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALST LWLLL	13-18	42%	8-11	—
OU WWLWL	17-20	46%	7-9	—

Venue/role: ALST away; OU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALST UOUUO	14-17	45%	9-22
OU UUOUO	18-19	49%	21-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALST	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
OU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Alabama St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ TCU	No recent meeting
Dec 13	@ AUB	L63–83WU

Oklahoma

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs OKST	W85–76WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama St

31 games played

Straight up

9-22

29% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2229%

L W L L W L L L L L L L W L L W L W L L W L L W W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

L W L W W L W L W L L L W L L W L W L L W L W W W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1745%

U U O U U O O U O U O U O O U U U O O U O U U U O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@FSU	L 64-101	+24.5	L −12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@UAB	W 77-74	+19.5	W +22.5	164.5	U 151
Nov 17	@COLO	L 66-94	+22.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 160
Nov 19	@AF	L 64-66	+2.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 130
Nov 21	vsIUIN	W 101-80	+2.5	W +23.5	181.5	U 181
Nov 23	vsSIUE	L 68-83	+1.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 26	@UNM	L 87-93	+19.5	W +13.5	148.5	O 180
Dec 7	@UTM	L 64-74	+6.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 11	@MIZ	L 77-85	+26.5	W +18.5	155.5	O 162
Dec 17	@CIN	L 51-88	+21.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 139
Dec 22	@MEM	L 67-88	+20.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 29	@MSST	L 56-94	+17.5	L −20.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 3	@MVSU	W 89-69	-13.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 5	@UAPB	L 79-90	-1.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsJKST	L 64-75	-7.5	L −18.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 12	vsALCN	W 81-66	-9.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 19	vsAAMU	L 69-73	-1.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 142
Jan 24	@PV	W 95-80	-1.5	W +13.5	158.5	O 175
Jan 27	@TXSO	L 64-96	+2.5	L −29.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBCU	L 54-69	+1.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 123
Feb 2	vsFAMU	W 79-66	-3.5	W +9.5	139.5	O 145
Feb 7	@GRAM	L 47-57	+4.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 104
Feb 9	@SOU	L 68-69	+6.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 137
Feb 14	vsUAPB	W 79-61	-3.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 140
Feb 16	vsMVSU	W 92-55	-16.5	W +20.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 19	@BCU	L 71-82	+5.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 21	@FAMU	L 63-76	-1.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 139
Feb 28	@AAMU	W 89-88	+1.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 177
Mar 3	vsSOU	L 64-71	-1.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 135
Mar 5	vsGRAM	L 63-65	-2.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 128
Mar 9	vsALCN	L 65-77	-7.5	L −19.5	141.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−12.5

UAB

W 77-74

+22.5

COLO

L 66-94

−5.5

L 64-66

+0.5

IUIN

W 101-80

+23.5

SIUE

L 68-83

−13.5

UNM

L 87-93

+13.5

UTM

L 64-74

−3.5

MIZ

L 77-85

+18.5

CIN

L 51-88

−15.5

MEM

L 67-88

−0.5

MSST

L 56-94

−20.5

MVSU

W 89-69

+6.5

UAPB

L 79-90

−12.5

JKST

L 64-75

−18.5

ALCN

W 81-66

+5.5

AAMU

L 69-73

−5.5

W 95-80

+13.5

TXSO

L 64-96

−29.5

BCU

L 54-69

−13.5

FAMU

W 79-66

+9.5

GRAM

L 47-57

−5.5

SOU

L 68-69

+5.5

UAPB

W 79-61

+14.5

MVSU

W 92-55

+20.5

BCU

L 71-82

−5.5

FAMU

L 63-76

−14.5

AAMU

W 89-88

+2.5

SOU

L 64-71

−8.5

GRAM

L 63-65

−4.5

ALCN

L 65-77

−19.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−1.5

UAB

W 77-74

−13.5

COLO

L 66-94

+3.5

L 64-66

−8.5

IUIN

W 101-80

−0.5

SIUE

L 68-83

+8.5

UNM

L 87-93

+31.5

UTM

L 64-74

−6.5

MIZ

L 77-85

+6.5

CIN

L 51-88

−6.5

MEM

L 67-88

+3.5

MSST

L 56-94

−4.5

MVSU

W 89-69

+13.5

UAPB

L 79-90

+9.5

JKST

L 64-75

−14.5

ALCN

W 81-66

−4.5

AAMU

L 69-73

−4.5

W 95-80

+16.5

TXSO

L 64-96

+4.5

BCU

L 54-69

−29.5

FAMU

W 79-66

+5.5

GRAM

L 47-57

−40.5

SOU

L 68-69

−12.5

UAPB

W 79-61

−9.5

MVSU

W 92-55

+4.5

BCU

L 71-82

+5.5

FAMU

L 63-76

−5.5

AAMU

W 89-88

+33.5

SOU

L 64-71

−18.5

GRAM

L 63-65

−16.5

ALCN

L 65-77

+0.5

over 14under 17avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oklahoma

37 games played

Straight up

21-16

57% wins

Against the spread

17-20

46% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-19

49% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1657%

W L W L W W W W L W W W W W L L L L L L L L L W W L L W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2046%

W L L L L L L W L W L W L W L L L W L W L L L W W L L W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1949%

O U U O U U U U U U O O O O U U O U O O U U O O O O U O U U O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSFPA	W 102-66	-31.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 8	@GONZ	L 68-83	+10.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsUAPB	W 95-69	-36.5	L −10.5	168.5	U 164
Nov 15	vsNEB	L 99-105	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsORU	W 95-71	-24.5	L −0.5	166.5	U 166
Nov 23	vsALCN	W 72-53	-31.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsMARQ	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	@WAKE	W 86-68	+4.5	W +22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsASU	L 70-86	-5.5	L −21.5	157.5	U 156
Dec 13	vsOKST	W 85-76	-2.5	W +6.5	169.5	U 161
Dec 16	vsKC	W 89-67	-30.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 22	vsSTET	W 107-54	-31.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 29	vsMVSU	W 93-69	-44.5	L −20.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 3	vsMISS	W 86-70	-6.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 7	@MSST	L 53-72	+1.5	L −17.5	158.5	U 125
Jan 10	@TA&M	L 76-83	+4.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 159
Jan 13	vsFLA	L 79-96	+7.5	L −9.5	157.5	O 175
Jan 17	vsALA	L 81-83	+5.5	W +3.5	177.5	U 164
Jan 20	@SC	L 76-85	-2.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 24	@MIZ	L 87-88	+4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 175
Jan 27	vsARK	L 79-83	+3.5	L −0.5	167.5	U 162
Jan 31	vsTEX	L 69-79	+1.5	L −8.5	155.5	U 148
Feb 4	@UK	L 78-94	+8.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 172
Feb 7	@VAN	W 92-91	+11.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 183
Feb 14	vsUGA	W 94-78	-1.5	W +14.5	164.5	O 172
Feb 18	@TENN	L 66-89	+11.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 155
Feb 21	vsTA&M	L 71-75	+1.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 146
Feb 24	vsAUB	W 91-79	+3.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 170
Feb 28	@LSU	W 83-67	+1.5	W +17.5	155.5	U 150
Mar 3	vsMIZ	W 80-64	+1.5	W +17.5	153.5	U 144
Mar 7	@TEX	W 88-85	+6.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 173
Mar 11	vsSC	W 86-74	-7.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 12	vsTA&M	W 83-63	+2.5	W +22.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 13	vsARK	L 79-82	+6.5	W +3.5	166.5	U 161
Apr 1	vsCOLO	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 176
Apr 4	vsBAY	W 82-69	+1.5	W +14.5	159.5	U 151
Apr 5	vsWVU	L 82-89	-3.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+4.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−10.5

NEB

L 99-105

−4.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−12.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−0.5

WAKE

W 86-68

+22.5

ASU

L 70-86

−21.5

OKST

W 85-76

+6.5

W 89-67

−8.5

STET

W 107-54

+21.5

MVSU

W 93-69

−20.5

MISS

W 86-70

+9.5

MSST

L 53-72

−17.5

TA&M

L 76-83

−2.5

FLA

L 79-96

−9.5

ALA

L 81-83

+3.5

L 76-85

−11.5

MIZ

L 87-88

+3.5

ARK

L 79-83

−0.5

TEX

L 69-79

−8.5

L 78-94

−7.5

VAN

W 92-91

+12.5

UGA

W 94-78

+14.5

TENN

L 66-89

−11.5

TA&M

L 71-75

−2.5

AUB

W 91-79

+15.5

LSU

W 83-67

+17.5

MIZ

W 80-64

+17.5

TEX

W 88-85

+9.5

W 86-74

+4.5

TA&M

W 83-63

+22.5

ARK

L 79-82

+3.5

COLO

W 90-86

−5.5

BAY

W 82-69

+14.5

WVU

L 82-89

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 20avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+18.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−15.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−4.5

NEB

L 99-105

+40.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−35.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−13.5

WAKE

W 86-68

−5.5

ASU

L 70-86

−1.5

OKST

W 85-76

−8.5

W 89-67

+2.5

STET

W 107-54

+12.5

MVSU

W 93-69

+8.5

MISS

W 86-70

+9.5

MSST

L 53-72

−33.5

TA&M

L 76-83

−6.5

FLA

L 79-96

+17.5

ALA

L 81-83

−13.5

L 76-85

+10.5

MIZ

L 87-88

+23.5

ARK

L 79-83

−5.5

TEX

L 69-79

−7.5

L 78-94

+19.5

VAN

W 92-91

+23.5

UGA

W 94-78

+7.5

TENN

L 66-89

+5.5

TA&M

L 71-75

−19.5

AUB

W 91-79

+12.5

LSU

W 83-67

−5.5

MIZ

W 80-64

−9.5

TEX

W 88-85

+18.5

W 86-74

+10.5

TA&M

W 83-63

−16.5

ARK

L 79-82

−5.5

COLO

W 90-86

+13.5

BAY

W 82-69

−8.5

WVU

L 82-89

+29.5

over 18under 19avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oklahoma has the better starters

Position by position: Alabama St 0, Oklahoma 4, even 1

Alabama StBetterOklahoma

G M. James TR21 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 77

OUSmall

G B. Edwards TR12.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 4.9 ast Score 93

G A. Brown13.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 46

OUBig

G X. Brown15.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 92

G T. Miller7 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Hendricks TR11.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 60

F J. Walker4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 19

OUBig

F D. Brennan TR12.4 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 95

F J. Scott TR3.7 pts · 3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 33

OUBig

F D. Reid11.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 84

Alabama StBetterOklahoma

ALST offense269th of 366 · -8.2

OUBig

OU defense51st of 366 · +1.9

ALST defense330th of 366 · -8.6

OUBig

OU offense28th of 366 · +6.6

Backcourt-1.0 · 3 players

OUBig

Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

OUBig

Frontcourt+6.9 · 2 players

Bench-0.0 · 1 player

OUSmall

Bench+2.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestALST betterOU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Alabama St

Guards

M. James37 min · TRA. Brown26 minT. Miller22 minD. BondsNewP. McMillanNewJ. RogersNew

Forwards

J. Walker16 minJ. Scott12 min · TRI. Barganier1 min · TRP. MensahNewM. DixonNewT. HamptonNew

Oklahoma

Guards

B. Edwards33 min · TRX. Brown32 minT. Hendricks31 min · TRP. Isaacs22 min · TRD. Forsythe17 minB. MoserNew

Forwards

D. Brennan31 min · TRD. Reid28 minK. Rooths16 min · TRK. Rogers8 minF. KeeffeNewG. MayfieldNew

Centers

Y. Yaak15 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ALST71.5 #260

OU82.9 #29

Points per possession

ALST1.01 #318

OU1.19 #23

Pace (possessions)

ALST71.3 #59

OU69.4 #154

Shooting

Effective FG%

ALST47.1 #335

OU54.9 #40

3-point %

ALST31.8 #288

OU36.5 #41

3-point attempt rate

ALST38.5 #200

OU43.6 #97

Free throw rate

ALST34.9 #185

OU35.5 #161

Possessions

Turnover rate

ALST18.3 #289

OU14.3 #33

Offensive rebound rate

ALST31.9 #128

OU32.8 #92

Assists per game

ALST11.7 #303

OU14.5 #116

Defense

Points allowed

ALST77.6 #256

OU77.4 #248

Points allowed per possession

ALST1.09 #185

OU1.12 #271

Opponent effective FG%

ALST52.2 #222

OU51.0 #162

Opponent 3-point %

ALST34.2 #194

OU34.1 #189

Turnovers forced

ALST18.7 #63

OU15.5 #247

Defensive rebound rate

ALST68.5 #230

OU67.1 #296

Steals per game

ALST7.9 #50

OU6.3 #193

Blocks per game

ALST3.8 #102

OU3.9 #89

ALST		OU
Scoring
71.5 #260	Points per game	82.9 #29
1.01 #318	Points per possession	1.19 #23
71.3 #59	Pace (possessions)	69.4 #154
Shooting
47.1 #335	Effective FG%	54.9 #40
31.8 #288	3-point %	36.5 #41
38.5 #200	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #97
34.9 #185	Free throw rate	35.5 #161
Possessions
18.3 #289	Turnover rate	14.3 #33
31.9 #128	Offensive rebound rate	32.8 #92
11.7 #303	Assists per game	14.5 #116
Defense
77.6 #256	Points allowed	77.4 #248
1.09 #185	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #271
52.2 #222	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #162
34.2 #194	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #189
18.7 #63	Turnovers forced	15.5 #247
68.5 #230	Defensive rebound rate	67.1 #296
7.9 #50	Steals per game	6.3 #193
3.8 #102	Blocks per game	3.9 #89

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alabama St

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alcorn St65–77
Lvs Grambling63–65
Lvs Southern64–71
W@ Alabama A&M89–88
L@ Florida A&M63–76

A week or more of rest.

Oklahoma

21-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia82–89
Wvs Baylor82–69
Wvs Colorado90–86
Lvs Arkansas79–82
Wvs Texas A&M83–63

A week or more of rest.

Alabama State Hornets at Oklahoma Sooners

What could decide it: OU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama St

Oklahoma

Oklahoma has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Alabama St

Oklahoma