UL Monroe Warhawks vs Ole Miss Rebels: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 12:00 AM ETLanders Center · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UL Monroe and Ole Miss
ULM	This season	MISS
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MISS 91–61 · win probability MISS 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MISS has more of the edges

ULM 1, MISS 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MISSBig

MISS offense vs ULM defense

Offense 50th of 366 against a defense 361st, on the model’s ratings

MISSBig

ULM offense vs MISS defense

Offense 332nd of 366 against a defense 37th, on the model’s ratings

ULMBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ULM 38.8, MISS 33.0. Allowed: ULM 27.7, MISS 41.2

Context

Schedule so far

ULM has played the 216th-hardest schedule, MISS the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MISSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ULM 47.8 and allows 57.1; MISS 50.5 and allows 50.5

MISSBig

Three-pointers

ULM hits 32.2% and allows 36.9%; MISS hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 41.9% and 35.5% of their shots

MISSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ULM 16.9%, MISS 14.0%. Forced: ULM 15.7%, MISS 16.5%

MISSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ULM 25.1%, MISS 28.3%. Defensive: ULM 64.6%, MISS 67.4%

MISSSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ULM 1%, MISS 32%. Transfers in: ULM 6, MISS 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: ULM plays 71.3 a game (58th fastest), MISS 69.5 (145th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MISS -29.7	—
Total	—	152.1	—
Projected score	—	ULM 61.2 · MISS 90.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MISS -17.5	—
1H total	71.1	—
1H projected score	ULM 26.8 · MISS 44.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ULM WWLWW	17-12	59%	2-0	—
MISS LWWWW	15-20	43%	4-5	—

Venue/role: ULM neutral site; MISS neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM UOUUO	20-9	69%	2-28
MISS UUUUO	20-15	57%	15-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	1-9 10%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
MISS	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UL Monroe

No more games listed yet.

Ole Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	vs YSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ULM 0–1 MISSMISS leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ULM 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 7, 2025-26	ULM 65 @ MISS 86	MISS -37.5	ULM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UL Monroe

30 games played

Straight up

2-28

7% wins

Against the spread

17-12

59% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-9

69% overs · avg +6.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-287%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L

8 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1259%

L W L L W L W L W W L W L W W W L L W–W W L L W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-969%

O O U O O O U O O O O O O O O U U O U–O O U O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NIU	L 82-102	+7.5	L −12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@MISS	L 65-86	+37.5	W +16.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 13	@HCU	L 61-72	+8.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 17	vsLAM	L 66-79	+11.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 22	vsMORE	L 80-83	+6.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 23	@ETSU	L 55-97	+19.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 3	vsMVSU	W 66-52	-9.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 118
Dec 7	@SFA	L 76-96	+19.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 172
Dec 13	@MIA	L 79-104	+35.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 183
Dec 17	vsUSA	L 92-96	+9.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 188
Dec 20	vsUL	L 62-76	+1.5	L −12.5	136.5	O 138
Dec 28	@KSU	L 85-94	+32.5	W +23.5	169.5	O 179
Jan 1	vsUSM	L 73-87	+9.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 3	vsTXST	L 79-84	+10.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 8	@UL	L 79-85	+7.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 164
Jan 10	@USM	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 130
Jan 17	vsGAST	L 57-77	+6.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 134
Jan 22	@MRSH	L 60-115	+18.5	L −36.5	160.5	O 175
Jan 23	@APP	L 43-59	+16.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 102
Jan 30	vsGASO	L 76-79	—	—	—	—
Feb 1	vsCCU	L 79-83	+10.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 162
Feb 4	@ODU	W 85-79	+14.5	W +20.5	154.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsBALL	L 68-73	+4.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 141
Feb 11	@ARST	L 70-103	+20.5	L −12.5	162.5	O 173
Feb 14	@TXST	L 84-95	+14.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 179
Feb 18	vsTROY	L 76-77	+17.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 21	vsARST	L 94-102	+15.5	W +7.5	165.5	O 196
Feb 25	@USA	L 54-89	+14.5	L −20.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 27	@TROY	L 65-80	+18.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsODU	L 80-87	+9.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

−12.5

MISS

L 65-86

+16.5

HCU

L 61-72

−2.5

LAM

L 66-79

−1.5

L 80-83

+3.5

ETSU

L 55-97

−22.5

MVSU

W 66-52

+4.5

SFA

L 76-96

−0.5

MIA

L 79-104

+10.5

USA

L 92-96

+5.5

L 62-76

−12.5

KSU

L 85-94

+23.5

USM

L 73-87

−4.5

TXST

L 79-84

+5.5

L 79-85

+1.5

USM

L 60-70

+4.5

GAST

L 57-77

−13.5

MRSH

L 60-115

−36.5

APP

L 43-59

+0.5

CCU

L 79-83

+6.5

ODU

W 85-79

+20.5

BALL

L 68-73

−0.5

ARST

L 70-103

−12.5

TXST

L 84-95

+3.5

TROY

L 76-77

+16.5

ARST

L 94-102

+7.5

USA

L 54-89

−20.5

TROY

L 65-80

+3.5

ODU

L 80-87

+2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 12avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

+36.5

MISS

L 65-86

+1.5

HCU

L 61-72

−10.5

LAM

L 66-79

+4.5

L 80-83

+17.5

ETSU

L 55-97

+5.5

MVSU

W 66-52

−31.5

SFA

L 76-96

+29.5

MIA

L 79-104

+29.5

USA

L 92-96

+39.5

L 62-76

+1.5

KSU

L 85-94

+9.5

USM

L 73-87

+7.5

TXST

L 79-84

+12.5

L 79-85

+24.5

USM

L 60-70

−25.5

GAST

L 57-77

−21.5

MRSH

L 60-115

+14.5

APP

L 43-59

−42.5

CCU

L 79-83

+15.5

ODU

W 85-79

+9.5

BALL

L 68-73

−2.5

ARST

L 70-103

+10.5

TXST

L 84-95

+29.5

TROY

L 76-77

−0.5

ARST

L 94-102

+30.5

USA

L 54-89

−10.5

TROY

L 65-80

−8.5

ODU

L 80-87

+9.5

over 20under 9avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ole Miss

35 games played

Straight up

15-20

43% wins

Against the spread

15-20

43% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-15

57% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-2043%

W W W W W L L L L W W L W L L W W W L L L L L L L L L L W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-2043%

W L L L L L L L W L L L W L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1557%

O O O O U O O U U U O U U O O O O U U U U O O O O U O O O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSELA	W 88-58	-21.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	vsULM	W 86-65	-37.5	L −16.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 11	vsMEM	W 83-77	-9.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 160
Nov 14	vsCSUB	W 82-60	-23.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 18	vsAPSU	W 72-65	-20.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsIOWA	L 69-74	+4.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 143
Nov 26	vsUTAH	L 74-75	-10.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 149
Dec 2	vsMIA	L 66-75	-1.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 141
Dec 6	@SJU	L 58-63	+13.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsUSM	W 71-67	-12.5	L −8.5	138.5	U 138
Dec 17	vsAAMU	W 80-66	-20.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 146
Dec 21	vsNCSU	L 62-76	+7.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 138
Dec 29	vsALCN	W 79-43	-28.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 122
Jan 3	@OU	L 70-86	+6.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 7	vsARK	L 87-94	+3.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 181
Jan 10	vsMIZ	W 76-69	-1.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 145
Jan 14	@UGA	W 97-95	+10.5	W +12.5	158.5	O 192
Jan 17	@MSST	W 68-67	+3.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 135
Jan 20	vsAUB	L 66-78	+3.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 24	@UK	L 63-72	+11.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 31	@VAN	L 68-71	+10.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 3	@TENN	L 66-84	+12.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 150
Feb 7	@TEX	L 68-79	+9.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 11	vsALA	L 74-93	+6.5	L −12.5	164.5	O 167
Feb 14	vsMSST	L 78-90	-3.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 168
Feb 18	@TA&M	L 77-80	+9.5	W +6.5	157.5	U 157
Feb 21	vsFLA	L 75-94	+13.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 169
Feb 25	vsLSU	L 99-106	-2.5	L −9.5	147.5	O 205
Feb 28	@AUB	W 85-79	+10.5	W +16.5	153.5	O 164
Mar 3	vsVAN	L 86-89	+7.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 175
Mar 7	vsSC	L 61-64	-7.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 125
Mar 11	vsTEX	W 76-66	+5.5	W +15.5	147.5	U 142
Mar 12	vsUGA	W 76-72	+5.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 148
Mar 13	vsALA	W 80-79	+12.5	W +13.5	166.5	U 159
Mar 14	vsARK	L 90-93	+8.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SELA

W 88-58

+8.5

ULM

W 86-65

−16.5

MEM

W 83-77

−3.5

CSUB

W 82-60

−1.5

APSU

W 72-65

−13.5

IOWA

L 69-74

−0.5

UTAH

L 74-75

−11.5

MIA

L 66-75

−10.5

SJU

L 58-63

+8.5

USM

W 71-67

−8.5

AAMU

W 80-66

−6.5

NCSU

L 62-76

−6.5

ALCN

W 79-43

+7.5

L 70-86

−9.5

ARK

L 87-94

−3.5

MIZ

W 76-69

+5.5

UGA

W 97-95

+12.5

MSST

W 68-67

+4.5

AUB

L 66-78

−8.5

L 63-72

+2.5

VAN

L 68-71

+7.5

TENN

L 66-84

−5.5

TEX

L 68-79

−1.5

ALA

L 74-93

−12.5

MSST

L 78-90

−15.5

TA&M

L 77-80

+6.5

FLA

L 75-94

−5.5

LSU

L 99-106

−9.5

AUB

W 85-79

+16.5

VAN

L 86-89

+4.5

L 61-64

−10.5

TEX

W 76-66

+15.5

UGA

W 76-72

+9.5

ALA

W 80-79

+13.5

ARK

L 90-93

+5.5

covered 15didn’t cover 20avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SELA

W 88-58

+2.5

ULM

W 86-65

+1.5

MEM

W 83-77

+7.5

CSUB

W 82-60

+1.5

APSU

W 72-65

−8.5

IOWA

L 69-74

+2.5

UTAH

L 74-75

+4.5

MIA

L 66-75

−4.5

SJU

L 58-63

−30.5

USM

W 71-67

−0.5

AAMU

W 80-66

+10.5

NCSU

L 62-76

−10.5

ALCN

W 79-43

−26.5

L 70-86

+9.5

ARK

L 87-94

+27.5

MIZ

W 76-69

+1.5

UGA

W 97-95

+33.5

MSST

W 68-67

−12.5

AUB

L 66-78

−7.5

L 63-72

−10.5

VAN

L 68-71

−10.5

TENN

L 66-84

+10.5

TEX

L 68-79

+1.5

ALA

L 74-93

+2.5

MSST

L 78-90

+21.5

TA&M

L 77-80

−0.5

FLA

L 75-94

+16.5

LSU

L 99-106

+57.5

AUB

W 85-79

+10.5

VAN

L 86-89

+19.5

L 61-64

−22.5

TEX

W 76-66

−5.5

UGA

W 76-72

−8.5

ALA

W 80-79

−7.5

ARK

L 90-93

+23.5

over 20under 15avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ole Miss has the better starters

Position by position: UL Monroe 0, Ole Miss 3, even 2

UL MonroeBetterOle Miss

G D. Anderson TR5.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 23

MISSBig

G C. Stephenson TR18.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90

G K. London TR5.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1 ast Score 5

MISSBig

G I. Kamardine11.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 78

G Q. McPherson TR4.4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 60

MISSSmall

G A. Clark TR12.7 pts · 3 reb · 4.9 ast Score 88

G R. Cowherd TR0.9 pts · 0 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Haskins TR11.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76

C J. Lafleur TR1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F R. Siulepa TR10 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77

UL MonroeBetterOle Miss

ULM offense332nd of 366 · -10.8

MISSBig

MISS defense37th of 366 · +3.0

ULM defense361st of 366 · -11.5

MISSBig

MISS offense50th of 366 · +3.6

Backcourt-4.2 · 4 players

MISSBig

Backcourt+6.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

MISSBig

Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

MISSSmall

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestULM betterMISS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UL Monroe

Guards

D. Anderson16 min · TRK. London14 min · TRQ. McPherson11 min · TRR. Cowherd5 min · TRC. Campbell1 minP. TillmanNew

Forwards

L. Carr2 min · TRG. ChamberlainNewJ. RegisteNewG. SchoentgenNew

Centers

J. Lafleur6 min · TRM. AdonryNewZ. NdanckyNew

Ole Miss

Guards

C. Stephenson33 min · TRI. Kamardine31 minA. Clark31 min · TRP. Pinkins25 minZ. Day8 minB. HenshallNew

Forwards

D. Haskins28 min · TRR. Siulepa27 min · TRS. Trouet26 min · TRC. Brown13 min · TRD. PattonNew

Centers

M. Handlogten15 min · TRS. Cicic13 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ULM71.7 #255

MISS75.9 #145

Points per possession

ULM1.00 #321

MISS1.09 #157

Pace (possessions)

ULM71.3 #58

MISS69.5 #145

Shooting

Effective FG%

ULM47.8 #316

MISS50.5 #217

3-point %

ULM32.2 #270

MISS33.2 #221

3-point attempt rate

ULM41.9 #135

MISS35.5 #258

Free throw rate

ULM38.8 #85

MISS33.0 #238

Possessions

Turnover rate

ULM16.9 #196

MISS14.0 #23

Offensive rebound rate

ULM25.1 #338

MISS28.3 #253

Assists per game

ULM11.9 #288

MISS13.5 #178

Defense

Points allowed

ULM85.4 #361

MISS76.1 #219

Points allowed per possession

ULM1.20 #358

MISS1.10 #215

Opponent effective FG%

ULM57.1 #358

MISS50.5 #127

Opponent 3-point %

ULM36.9 #343

MISS33.5 #151

Turnovers forced

ULM15.7 #235

MISS16.5 #190

Defensive rebound rate

ULM64.6 #345

MISS67.4 #285

Steals per game

ULM6.0 #237

MISS7.1 #118

Blocks per game

ULM3.2 #189

MISS4.3 #48

ULM		MISS
Scoring
71.7 #255	Points per game	75.9 #145
1.00 #321	Points per possession	1.09 #157
71.3 #58	Pace (possessions)	69.5 #145
Shooting
47.8 #316	Effective FG%	50.5 #217
32.2 #270	3-point %	33.2 #221
41.9 #135	3-point attempt rate	35.5 #258
38.8 #85	Free throw rate	33.0 #238
Possessions
16.9 #196	Turnover rate	14.0 #23
25.1 #338	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #253
11.9 #288	Assists per game	13.5 #178
Defense
85.4 #361	Points allowed	76.1 #219
1.20 #358	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #215
57.1 #358	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #127
36.9 #343	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #151
15.7 #235	Turnovers forced	16.5 #190
64.6 #345	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #285
6.0 #237	Steals per game	7.1 #118
3.2 #189	Blocks per game	4.3 #48

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UL Monroe

2-28 in 2025-26 overall · 1-18 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Old Dominion80–87
L@ Troy65–80
L@ South Alabama54–89
Lvs Arkansas St94–102
Lvs Troy76–77

A week or more of rest.

Ole Miss

15-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arkansas90–93
Wvs Alabama80–79
Wvs Georgia76–72
Wvs Texas76–66
Lvs South Carolina61–64

A week or more of rest.

UL Monroe Warhawks vs Ole Miss Rebels

What could decide it: MISS has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UL Monroe

Ole Miss

Ole Miss has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UL Monroe

Ole Miss