1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Dec 13
  3. ALCN @ FGCU
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 13

Alcorn State Braves at Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

Alico Arena · at FGCU
#360ALCNAlcorn St
@
#266FGCUFGCU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ALCNThis seasonFGCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FGCU 79–68 · win probability FGCU 85%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 146.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FGCU has more of the edges

ALCN 1, FGCU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FGCUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ALCN 26.9%, FGCU 31.1%. Defensive: ALCN 64.5%, FGCU 71.8%
FGCUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ALCN 47.7 and allows 55.0; FGCU 52.0 and allows 53.4
FGCUSmall
FGCU offense vs ALCN defense
Offense 259th of 366 against a defense 354th, on the model’s ratings
ALCNSmall
Three-pointers
ALCN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%; FGCU hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 33.7% and 38.4% of their shots
FGCUSmall
ALCN offense vs FGCU defense
Offense 350th of 366 against a defense 274th, on the model’s ratings
FGCUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ALCN 19.6%, FGCU 16.0%. Forced: ALCN 18.1%, FGCU 16.4%
FGCUSmall
Home court
FGCU at home. This season: FGCU 0-0 at home, ALCN 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
ALCN has played the 266th-hardest schedule, FGCU the 231st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ALCN 11%, FGCU 25%. Transfers in: ALCN 5, FGCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ALCN 31.8, FGCU 29.1. Allowed: ALCN 39.4, FGCU 38.3
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: ALCN plays 69.7 a game (138th fastest), FGCU 69.9 (122nd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FGCU -11.6—
Total—146.8—
Projected score—ALCN 67.6 · FGCU 79.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFGCU -6.8—
1H total68.7—
1H projected scoreALCN 30.9 · FGCU 37.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Alcorn St has the better starters

Position by position: Alcorn St 1, FGCU 0, even 4
Alcorn StBetterFGCU
G T. Thomas9 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
No call
G E. Brooks TR12.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 47
G J. Felton TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G D. Williams6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 21
G B. Thomas TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G G. Washington2.6 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
F M. Taylor TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 4
No call
F G. Tanner2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
C C. Richardson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0 ast Score 45
ALCNSmall
C T. Guillouette2.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26
Alcorn StBetterFGCU
ALCN offense350th of 366 · -12.5
FGCUSmall
FGCU defense274th of 366 · -6.9
ALCN defense354th of 366 · -9.9
FGCUSmall
FGCU offense259th of 366 · -8.0
Backcourt-1.9 · 3 players
ALCNSmall
Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
Bench-0.6 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.7 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestALCN betterFGCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Alcorn St
Guards
T. Thomas22 minJ. Felton14 min · TRB. Thomas7 min · TRS. SunderlandNewJ. PowellNewJ. CraineNew
Forwards
M. Taylor14 min · TRJ. Walker5 min · TRB. CannonNewN. ThomasNew
Centers
C. Richardson15 min · TRA. TokpahNew
FGCU
Guards
E. Brooks30 min · TRD. Williams19 minG. Washington8 minM. McCarthy2 minB. WashingtonNewN. SermpezisNew
Forwards
G. Tanner8 minC. Outlaw2 min · TRB. LucasNewE. BarlowNewC. KoniecznyNewT. WestercampNew
Centers
T. Guillouette13 minJ. Houser6 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ALCNFGCU
Scoring
66.9 #335Points per game76.6 #130
0.96 #352Points per possession1.10 #138
69.7 #138Pace (possessions)69.9 #122
Shooting
47.7 #320Effective FG%52.0 #147
33.3 #2093-point %33.2 #219
33.7 #3033-point attempt rate38.4 #202
31.8 #259Free throw rate29.1 #331
Possessions
19.6 #340Turnover rate16.0 #135
26.9 #297Offensive rebound rate31.1 #161
11.1 #333Assists per game14.5 #115
Defense
80.2 #322Points allowed78.0 #266
1.15 #324Points allowed per possession1.11 #254
55.0 #330Opponent effective FG%53.4 #280
33.0 #120Opponent 3-point %35.5 #275
18.1 #92Turnovers forced16.4 #191
64.5 #347Defensive rebound rate71.8 #73
7.7 #63Steals per game7.7 #66
3.4 #162Blocks per game3.4 #153
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alcorn St

9-23 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View56–65
  • Wvs Alabama St77–65
  • Lvs AR-Pine Bluff48–83
  • Wvs Miss Valley St67–64
  • L@ Prairie View51–72

A week or more of rest.

FGCU

14-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs C Arkansas63–73
  • Wvs Lipscomb77–53
  • Wvs North Alabama69–58
  • L@ Stetson63–78
  • L@ North Florida70–76

A week or more of rest.