Texas Southern Tigers at Alcorn State Braves: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 17, 4:00 PM ETDavey L. Whitney Complex · at Alcorn St · Conference game

Final

#360ALCNAlcorn St71final

Closing lineTXSO -1.5✓ ALCN covered by 0.5

Closing total146.5Under by 3.5

Season records: Texas Southern and Alcorn St
TXSO	This season	ALCN
1-12	Record	2-13
2-11	ATS	7-8
7-6	O/U	9-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TXSO 77–76 ALCN · ✓ TXSO (52%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TXSO	34	38	72
ALCN	32	39	71

1st half: TXSO 34, ALCN 32 (TXSO by 2). The model had TXSO by 0.5 and a total of 71.5 (actual 66).

Team stats

TXSO		ALCN
24-50 48%	Field goals	22-52 42%
3-9 33%	3-pointers	6-24 25%
21-33 64%	Free throws	21-23 91%
33 10 off	Rebounds	32 9 off
9	Assists	13
5	Steals	3
1	Blocks	5
9	Turnovers	11
17	Fouls	24
36	Points in paint	30
16	Fast-break points	5

Players

TXSO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Zaire Hayes G	37	5	5	3	1-6	1-3
Alex Anderson G	35	19	4	2	4-10	0-0
Bryce Roberts G	34	20	2	0	8-12	2-4
Troy Hupstead F	30	16	7	3	6-7	0-0
Josh Akpovwa F	12	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Anthony Andrews F	30	8	3	1	3-4	0-0
Zytarious Mortle G	10	2	3	0	1-4	0-2
Duane Posey G	8	2	2	0	1-4	0-0
Jaylen Wysinger G	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Jordan Gorecki, Ahmed Nedal, Jordan Hamilton, Kehlin Farooq, Josh Farmer, Kolby Granger, Oumar Koureissi, Cameron Patterson

ALCN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Woodard SF	39	5	4	2	2-9	0-4
Davian Williams PG	38	15	3	1	5-9	4-6
Jameel Morris G	34	6	3	4	2-8	0-3
Shane Lancaster G	30	14	2	3	3-7	1-5
Tycen McDaniels F	17	11	9	0	4-7	0-0
Bench
Omari Hamilton F	18	11	5	1	4-7	0-3
Travis Roberts SG	12	3	1	0	1-4	1-3
Jeremy Ellis PF	6	4	3	2	1-1	0-0
Bryson Calamese PG	6	2	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Alex Hawkins, Mike Jones, William Henderson, Ray Glasgow

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TXSO -1.5	TXSO -0.6	ALCN +0.9	W ALCN covered
Total	146.5	152.7	Over 6.2	L Under
Projected score	—	TXSO 76.7 · ALCN 76.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TXSO -0.5	TXSO -2.0
1H total	71.5	66
1H projected score	TXSO 36 · ALCN 35.5	TXSO 34 · ALCN 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXSO LLLLW	2-11	15%	1-7	1-1
ALCN LLWWL	7-8	47%	—	7-8

Venue/role: TXSO away, as favorite; ALCN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXSO OOOUU	7-6	54%	1-12
ALCN OUOUU	9-6	60%	2-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXSO	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
ALCN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

TXSO 5–5 ALCNSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · TXSO has won the last 2 meetings · TXSO 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 3, 2024-25	TXSO 75 @ ALCN 59	ALCN -0.5	TXSO W
Jan 18, 2024-25	ALCN 57 @ TXSO 66	TXSO -8.5	TXSO W
Mar 4, 2023-24	ALCN 82 @ TXSO 79	TXSO -4.5	ALCN W
Jan 20, 2023-24	TXSO 72 @ ALCN 61	ALCN -1.5	TXSO W
Mar 8, 2022-23	TXSO 66 vs ALCN 62	ALCN -1.5	TXSO W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Texas Southern

13 games played

Straight up

1-12

8% wins

Against the spread

2-11

15% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-128%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-1115%

L L L L W L L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-654%

U O O U O U U O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GONZ	L 43-98	+29.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 141
Nov 6	@TA&M	L 70-104	+29.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsSAM	L 90-93	+2.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 183
Nov 15	@TXST	L 67-77	+4.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 144
Nov 20	@VAN	L 74-109	+36.5	W +1.5	164.5	O 183
Dec 6	vsSHSU	L 70-82	+7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 152
Dec 14	@MINN	L 53-89	+21.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 17	@NCSU	L 72-108	+34.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 180
Dec 22	vsACU	L 68-75	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 3	@SOU	L 73-84	+6.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 157
Jan 5	@GRAM	L 67-84	+5.5	L −11.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 10	vsUAPB	L 66-74	-1.5	L −9.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 12	vsMVSU	W 84-51	-12.5	W +20.5	142.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GONZ

L 43-98

−25.5

TA&M

L 70-104

−4.5

SAM

L 90-93

−0.5

TXST

L 67-77

−5.5

VAN

L 74-109

+1.5

SHSU

L 70-82

−4.5

MINN

L 53-89

−14.5

NCSU

L 72-108

−1.5

ACU

L 68-75

−2.5

SOU

L 73-84

−4.5

GRAM

L 67-84

−11.5

UAPB

L 66-74

−9.5

MVSU

W 84-51

+20.5

covered 2didn’t cover 11avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GONZ

L 43-98

−16.5

TA&M

L 70-104

+12.5

SAM

L 90-93

+29.5

TXST

L 67-77

−0.5

VAN

L 74-109

+18.5

SHSU

L 70-82

−6.5

MINN

L 53-89

−2.5

NCSU

L 72-108

+27.5

ACU

L 68-75

+4.5

SOU

L 73-84

+3.5

GRAM

L 67-84

+4.5

UAPB

L 66-74

−22.5

MVSU

W 84-51

−7.5

over 7under 6avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Alcorn St

15 games played

Straight up

2-13

13% wins

Against the spread

7-8

47% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-6

60% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-1313%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-847%

L W L W L W W W L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-660%

O O U O U O U O O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@FSU	L 76-108	+27.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 6	@USA	L 70-76	+18.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 8	@MINN	L 50-95	+31.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 11	@MD	L 64-84	+29.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 13	@HOW	L 64-72	+6.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 18	@LSU	L 81-107	+32.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 23	@OU	L 53-72	+31.5	W +12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsINST	W 81-74	+12.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 29	@LT	L 58-83	+16.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141
Dec 3	@ISU	L 68-132	+42.5	L −21.5	151.5	O 200
Dec 19	@BAY	L 56-113	+35.5	L −21.5	160.5	O 169
Dec 29	@MISS	L 43-79	+28.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 122
Jan 3	@JKST	L 86-89	+5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 175
Jan 10	@AAMU	W 64-62	+9.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 126
Jan 12	@ALST	L 66-81	+9.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

−4.5

USA

L 70-76

+12.5

MINN

L 50-95

−13.5

L 64-84

+9.5

HOW

L 64-72

−1.5

LSU

L 81-107

+6.5

L 53-72

+12.5

INST

W 81-74

+19.5

L 58-83

−8.5

ISU

L 68-132

−21.5

BAY

L 56-113

−21.5

MISS

L 43-79

−7.5

JKST

L 86-89

+2.5

AAMU

W 64-62

+11.5

ALST

L 66-81

−5.5

covered 7didn’t cover 8avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

+27.5

USA

L 70-76

+4.5

MINN

L 50-95

−7.5

L 64-84

+1.5

HOW

L 64-72

−18.5

LSU

L 81-107

+32.5

L 53-72

−35.5

INST

W 81-74

+2.5

L 58-83

+3.5

ISU

L 68-132

+48.5

BAY

L 56-113

+8.5

MISS

L 43-79

−26.5

JKST

L 86-89

+29.5

AAMU

W 64-62

−14.5

ALST

L 66-81

−4.5

over 9under 6avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Texas Southern Tigers at Alcorn State Braves

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Texas Southern

Alcorn St

Texas Southern

Alcorn St