1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Dec 13
  3. UNT vs TXST
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 13

North Texas Mean Green vs Texas State Bobcats

Dickies Arena · Neutral site
#112UNTNorth Texas
vs
#103TXSTTexas St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNTThis seasonTXST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TXST 72–71 · win probability TXST 52%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 142.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TXST has more of the edges

UNT 2, TXST 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
UNT has played the 121st-hardest schedule, TXST the 298th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TXSTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNT 33.5%, TXST 33.9%. Defensive: UNT 67.6%, TXST 71.6%
UNTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNT 16.8%, TXST 18.7%. Forced: UNT 21.3%, TXST 18.5%
UNTSmall
Three-pointers
UNT hits 28.7% and allows 30.9%; TXST hits 32.2% and allows 35.7%. Threes are 32.4% and 24.6% of their shots
TXSTSmall
UNT offense vs TXST defense
Offense 165th of 366 against a defense 112th, on the model’s ratings
TXSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNT 45%, TXST 69%. Transfers in: UNT 3, TXST 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNT 39.6, TXST 34.0. Allowed: UNT 45.1, TXST 39.0
Even
TXST offense vs UNT defense
Offense 105th of 366 against a defense 66th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNT 46.0 and allows 48.5; TXST 50.0 and allows 52.0
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: UNT plays 67.6 a game (245th fastest), TXST 68.2 (223rd). Faster games mean more points
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TXST -0.7—
Total—142.9—
Projected score—UNT 71.1 · TXST 71.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTXST -0.3—
1H total66.9—
1H projected scoreUNT 33.3 · TXST 33.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Texas St has the better starters

Position by position: North Texas 1, Texas St 4, even 0
North TexasBetterTexas St
G J. Stevenson17.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 94
UNTBig
G M. Drone14 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 56
G C. Chavis TR10.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 53
TXSTSmall
G Q. House TR15.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 84
G C. Franklin6.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 47
TXSTSmall
G K. Younger TR15.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
G A. Amkou TR5.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 74
TXSTSmall
F D. Hall15.7 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 94
F R. Robinson7.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 65
TXSTSmall
F P. Djobet TR17.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
North TexasBetterTexas St
UNT offense165th of 366 · -5.0
Even
TXST defense112th of 366 · -1.4
UNT defense66th of 366 · +1.0
Even
TXST offense105th of 366 · -1.4
Backcourt+2.8 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt+2.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player
TXSTBig
Frontcourt+7.5 · 2 players
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
Even
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUNT betterTXST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
North Texas
Guards
J. Stevenson33 minC. Chavis27 min · TRC. Franklin25 minA. Amkou12 min · TRE. Horton9 minB. BarnesNew
Forwards
R. Robinson23 minM. Holmes6 min · TRO. NdourNewT. CrumbleNewF. KalajzicNew
Texas St
Guards
M. Drone31 minQ. House31 min · TRK. Younger29 min · TRK. Gumbs28 minD. Pernell22 minC. Steger11 min · TR
Forwards
D. Hall30 minP. Djobet30 min · TRR. Jessamy27 min · TRK. GrandisonNewD. AbisogunNewK. SandersNew
Centers
R. Fields16 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNTTXST
Scoring
69.1 #298Points per game71.9 #247
1.02 #302Points per possession1.06 #230
67.6 #245Pace (possessions)68.2 #223
Shooting
46.0 #349Effective FG%50.0 #238
28.7 #3583-point %32.2 #271
32.4 #3253-point attempt rate24.6 #364
39.6 #63Free throw rate34.0 #211
Possessions
16.8 #182Turnover rate18.7 #309
33.5 #76Offensive rebound rate33.9 #68
12.1 #282Assists per game12.7 #239
Defense
68.2 #35Points allowed72.5 #117
1.01 #33Points allowed per possession1.06 #106
48.5 #47Opponent effective FG%52.0 #210
30.9 #32Opponent 3-point %35.7 #293
21.3 #6Turnovers forced18.5 #75
67.6 #278Defensive rebound rate71.6 #81
8.9 #11Steals per game7.9 #41
4.3 #51Blocks per game3.6 #120
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Texas

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulsa84–90
  • Wvs FAU74–70
  • Wvs Rice62–58
  • W@ UAB62–58
  • L@ Charlotte79–80

A week or more of rest.

Texas St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss77–81
  • Wvs App State60–57
  • L@ Louisiana54–67
  • W@ South Alabama90–82
  • Wvs UL Monroe95–84

A week or more of rest.