1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. UPST @ NCCU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

South Carolina Upstate Spartans at North Carolina Central Eagles

McDougald-McLendon Arena · at NC Central
#325UPSTSC Upstate
@
#357NCCUNC Central
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UPSTThis seasonNCCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UPST 75–72 · win probability UPST 60%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

UPST 3, NCCU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UPST plays 70.5 a game (97th fastest), NCCU 66.9 (282nd). Faster games mean more points
UPSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UPST 48.3 and allows 51.0; NCCU 47.5 and allows 54.5
NCCUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UPST 18.1%, NCCU 18.2%. Forced: UPST 16.5%, NCCU 19.8%
NCCUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UPST 32.8, NCCU 39.3. Allowed: UPST 36.0, NCCU 36.9
UPSTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UPST 29.2%, NCCU 30.0%. Defensive: UPST 68.6%, NCCU 60.6%
UPSTSmall
UPST offense vs NCCU defense
Offense 299th of 366 against a defense 352nd, on the model’s ratings
NCCUSmall
Home court
NCCU at home. This season: NCCU 0-0 at home, UPST 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
UPST has played the 281st-hardest schedule, NCCU the 310th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
UPST hits 31.4% and allows 35.6%; NCCU hits 32.6% and allows 36.4%. Threes are 35.6% and 33.9% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UPST 9%, NCCU 4%. Transfers in: UPST 3, NCCU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
NCCU offense vs UPST defense
Offense 345th of 366 against a defense 338th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UPST -3.0—
Total—146.9—
Projected score—UPST 74.9 · NCCU 71.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUPST -1.9—
1H total68.7—
1H projected scoreUPST 35.3 · NCCU 33.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: SC Upstate 0, NC Central 0, even 5
SC UpstateBetterNC Central
G C. Rich0 pts · 0 reb · 2 ast Not ranked
No call
G T. Brown TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
F M. Webb TR9.9 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 56
No call
G R. Archey3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
F D. Tubek TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Meeks TR5.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 6
F Z. Johnson TR0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F T. Mason TR5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32
C C. Collier1.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 10
No call
F M. Vassel TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
SC UpstateBetterNC Central
UPST offense299th of 366 · -9.2
Even
NCCU defense352nd of 366 · -9.9
UPST defense338th of 366 · -8.9
Even
NCCU offense345th of 366 · -11.9
Backcourt-0.1 · 1 player
UPSTSmall
Backcourt-2.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 4 players
UPSTBig
Frontcourt-5.2 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestUPST betterNCCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SC Upstate
Guards
C. Rich5 minA. Allen-JohnsonNewW. TessemaNewR. NaugleNewJ. PattersonNewN. MvulaNew
Forwards
M. Webb27 min · TRD. Tubek7 min · TRZ. Johnson2 min · TRK. PayneNewD. EdmondNewA. PerottiNew
Centers
C. Collier14 min
NC Central
Guards
T. Brown14 min · TRR. Archey8 minD. KaneNewC. SanonNewI. BuckleyNewA. BowserNew
Forwards
C. Meeks29 min · TRT. Mason12 min · TRM. Vassel8 min · TRJ. PriceNewD. DuorNew
Centers
D. MbaetekaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UPSTNCCU
Scoring
71.0 #265Points per game67.6 #322
1.00 #324Points per possession1.02 #308
70.5 #97Pace (possessions)66.9 #282
Shooting
48.3 #307Effective FG%47.5 #328
31.4 #3083-point %32.6 #247
35.6 #2563-point attempt rate33.9 #299
32.8 #239Free throw rate39.3 #72
Possessions
18.1 #274Turnover rate18.2 #285
29.2 #231Offensive rebound rate30.0 #201
11.7 #304Assists per game12.1 #279
Defense
75.7 #210Points allowed77.3 #246
1.08 #170Points allowed per possession1.15 #322
51.0 #156Opponent effective FG%54.5 #317
35.6 #289Opponent 3-point %36.4 #321
16.5 #185Turnovers forced19.8 #27
68.6 #224Defensive rebound rate60.6 #364
6.1 #220Steals per game7.7 #60
4.7 #24Blocks per game3.4 #165
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SC Upstate

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Gardner-Webb64–65
  • Wvs Gardner-Webb71–61
  • L@ Radford59–71
  • Wvs Presbyterian76–74
  • L@ Winthrop64–68

A week or more of rest.

NC Central

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard63–70
  • Wvs Delaware St59–53
  • Wvs MD Eastern83–76
  • Lvs SC State64–80
  • W@ MD Eastern77–73

A week or more of rest.