Winthrop Eagles at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 3:00 PM ETThe HTC Center · at Coastal

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Winthrop and Coastal
WIN	This season	CCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WIN 77–75 · win probability WIN 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WIN has more of the edges

WIN 4, CCU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WIN 34.1%, CCU 26.9%. Defensive: WIN 72.3%, CCU 72.4%

WINBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WIN 14.7%, CCU 15.3%. Forced: WIN 16.6%, CCU 12.3%

WINBig

WIN offense vs CCU defense

Offense 135th of 366 against a defense 246th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WIN has played the 206th-hardest schedule, CCU the 301st. A record against a soft schedule means less

WINSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WIN 44.0, CCU 32.3. Allowed: WIN 39.0, CCU 34.9

CCUSmall

Home court

CCU at home. This season: CCU 0-0 at home, WIN 0-0 away

CCUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WIN 49.7 and allows 51.5; CCU 47.9 and allows 46.8

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: WIN plays 72.0 a game (35th fastest), CCU 69.9 (121st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WIN 13%, CCU 21%. Transfers in: WIN 5, CCU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

WIN hits 33.2% and allows 32.9%; CCU hits 33.5% and allows 32.8%. Threes are 44.1% and 43.1% of their shots

Even

CCU offense vs WIN defense

Offense 295th of 366 against a defense 298th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WIN -1.3	—
Total	—	152.0	—
Projected score	—	WIN 76.7 · CCU 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WIN -0.9	—
1H total	71.1	—
1H projected score	WIN 36 · CCU 35.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIN LLLLL	12-19	39%	7-9	—
CCU LWWWL	18-13	58%	7-5	—

Venue/role: WIN away; CCU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIN OUOUO	15-16	48%	20-11
CCU UOOUO	17-14	55%	18-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIN	7-3 70%	1-9 10%	5-5 50%
CCU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Winthrop

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ USU	No recent meeting
Dec 14	@ WYO	No recent meeting

Coastal

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	@ ECU	L59–63WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

WIN 2–4 CCUCCU leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · CCU has won the last 2 meetings · WIN 0-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	CCU 88 @ WIN 84	WIN -16.5	CCU W
Nov 11, 2025-26	WIN 66 @ CCU 72	CCU +2.5	CCU W
Dec 7, 2024-25	CCU 89 @ WIN 96	WIN -11.5	CCU W
Dec 2, 2023-24	WIN 90 @ CCU 87	CCU +4.5	CCU W
Dec 3, 2022-23	CCU 86 @ WIN 81	WIN -1.5	CCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Winthrop

31 games played

Straight up

20-11

65% wins

Against the spread

12-19

39% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1165%

W L L W L W L W W L L L L W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1939%

W W L W W W W W L L L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1648%

U O U O U U U O O O O U U O U U O U U O O U U O U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUC	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 7	@GMU	L 90-96	+9.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 11	@CCU	L 66-72	-2.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMER	W 105-69	-2.5	W +33.5	162.5	O 174
Nov 18	@ARK	L 83-84	+23.5	W +22.5	168.5	U 167
Nov 23	@JKST	W 80-62	-10.5	W +7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 25	@NEB	L 73-80	+14.5	W +7.5	166.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsSCST	W 101-79	-20.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 2	@LIU	W 94-92	-5.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsCCU	L 84-88	-16.5	L −20.5	153.5	O 172
Dec 18	@UND	L 88-90	-12.5	L −14.5	157.5	O 178
Dec 28	@TTU	L 57-87	+17.5	L −12.5	163.5	U 144
Dec 31	@LONG	L 70-82	-7.5	L −19.5	161.5	U 152
Jan 3	vsGWEB	W 88-77	-23.5	L −12.5	164.5	O 165
Jan 7	vsCHSO	W 81-77	-8.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 158
Jan 10	@UPST	W 71-50	-5.5	W +15.5	157.5	U 121
Jan 14	vsHPU	W 92-75	+2.5	W +19.5	162.5	O 167
Jan 17	@UNCA	W 69-67	-5.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 21	vsRAD	W 76-75	-9.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 151
Jan 24	@PRES	W 82-72	-5.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 31	vsUNCA	W 84-71	-9.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 4	@RAD	W 80-78	-4.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 158
Feb 7	vsLONG	W 79-74	-10.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 12	@GWEB	W 103-85	-20.5	L −2.5	156.5	O 188
Feb 19	vsUPST	W 68-64	-13.5	L −9.5	158.5	U 132
Feb 21	@HPU	L 87-89	+9.5	W +7.5	166.5	O 176
Feb 26	@CHSO	L 84-86	-8.5	L −10.5	164.5	O 170
Feb 28	vsPRES	W 74-70	-7.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 144
Mar 6	vsCHSO	W 86-81	-6.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 167
Mar 7	vsPRES	W 73-71	-7.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 144
Mar 8	vsHPU	L 76-91	+6.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

+3.5

GMU

L 90-96

+3.5

CCU

L 66-72

−8.5

MER

W 105-69

+33.5

ARK

L 83-84

+22.5

JKST

W 80-62

+7.5

NEB

L 73-80

+7.5

SCST

W 101-79

+1.5

LIU

W 94-92

−3.5

CCU

L 84-88

−20.5

UND

L 88-90

−14.5

TTU

L 57-87

−12.5

LONG

L 70-82

−19.5

GWEB

W 88-77

−12.5

CHSO

W 81-77

−4.5

UPST

W 71-50

+15.5

HPU

W 92-75

+19.5

UNCA

W 69-67

−3.5

RAD

W 76-75

−8.5

PRES

W 82-72

+4.5

UNCA

W 84-71

+3.5

RAD

W 80-78

−2.5

LONG

W 79-74

−5.5

GWEB

W 103-85

−2.5

UPST

W 68-64

−9.5

HPU

L 87-89

+7.5

CHSO

L 84-86

−10.5

PRES

W 74-70

−3.5

CHSO

W 86-81

−1.5

PRES

W 73-71

−5.5

HPU

L 76-91

−8.5

covered 12didn’t cover 19avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

−8.5

GMU

L 90-96

+39.5

CCU

L 66-72

−27.5

MER

W 105-69

+11.5

ARK

L 83-84

−1.5

JKST

W 80-62

−21.5

NEB

L 73-80

−13.5

SCST

W 101-79

+22.5

LIU

W 94-92

+32.5

CCU

L 84-88

+18.5

UND

L 88-90

+20.5

TTU

L 57-87

−19.5

LONG

L 70-82

−9.5

GWEB

W 88-77

+0.5

CHSO

W 81-77

−8.5

UPST

W 71-50

−36.5

HPU

W 92-75

+4.5

UNCA

W 69-67

−16.5

RAD

W 76-75

−14.5

PRES

W 82-72

+7.5

UNCA

W 84-71

+7.5

RAD

W 80-78

−3.5

LONG

W 79-74

−0.5

GWEB

W 103-85

+31.5

UPST

W 68-64

−26.5

HPU

L 87-89

+9.5

CHSO

L 84-86

+5.5

PRES

W 74-70

−6.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+2.5

PRES

W 73-71

−1.5

HPU

L 76-91

+9.5

over 15under 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Coastal

31 games played

Straight up

18-13

58% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1358%

L W L W W L W L W L L W W L L L W W W W W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

L W W W W L L L W L L W W L L L W W W W W L L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1455%

O U O O U U U O O U U O U O O U U O U O O U O U O O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WMU	L 71-76	+2.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 11	vsWIN	W 72-66	+2.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 14	@JXST	L 67-74	+7.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 21	@WIU	W 84-64	-3.5	W +16.5	138.5	O 148
Nov 22	vsUND	W 75-58	-3.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 23	@ILST	L 42-94	+12.5	L −39.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 30	vsAAMU	W 67-60	-7.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 127
Dec 3	@UPST	L 78-85	+2.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	@WIN	W 88-84	+16.5	W +20.5	153.5	O 172
Dec 13	@GCU	L 61-82	+17.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Dec 18	@APP	L 49-67	+4.5	L −13.5	137.5	U 116
Dec 20	@ODU	W 76-74	+3.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@JOES	W 68-62	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 1	vsGASO	L 81-82	-1.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 3	vsGAST	L 71-89	-6.5	L −24.5	148.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsODU	L 66-70	-4.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 136
Jan 10	vsAPP	W 67-62	+1.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 129
Jan 14	@MRSH	W 85-83	+9.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 168
Jan 17	@GASO	W 79-75	+6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 154
Jan 22	vsTXST	W 72-70	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 142
Jan 24	vsUSM	W 85-67	-2.5	W +15.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 29	@USA	L 48-53	+3.5	L −1.5	139.5	U 101
Feb 1	@ULM	W 83-79	-10.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 162
Feb 4	vsARST	L 66-70	+4.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsMASS	W 94-91	+2.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 185
Feb 12	@UL	W 69-65	-1.5	W +2.5	132.5	O 134
Feb 18	vsJMU	L 65-67	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsMRSH	W 79-75	+2.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 154
Feb 24	@GAST	W 76-71	-1.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 147
Feb 27	@JMU	W 69-68	+6.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	vsGASO	L 72-96	-1.5	L −25.5	151.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WMU

L 71-76

−2.5

WIN

W 72-66

+8.5

JXST

L 67-74

+0.5

WIU

W 84-64

+16.5

UND

W 75-58

+13.5

ILST

L 42-94

−39.5

AAMU

W 67-60

−0.5

UPST

L 78-85

−4.5

WIN

W 88-84

+20.5

GCU

L 61-82

−3.5

APP

L 49-67

−13.5

ODU

W 76-74

+5.5

JOES

W 68-62

+13.5

GASO

L 81-82

−2.5

GAST

L 71-89

−24.5

ODU

L 66-70

−8.5

APP

W 67-62

+6.5

MRSH

W 85-83

+11.5

GASO

W 79-75

+10.5

TXST

W 72-70

+0.5

USM

W 85-67

+15.5

USA

L 48-53

−1.5

ULM

W 83-79

−6.5

ARST

L 66-70

+0.5

MASS

W 94-91

+5.5

W 69-65

+2.5

JMU

L 65-67

−0.5

MRSH

W 79-75

+6.5

GAST

W 76-71

+3.5

JMU

W 69-68

+7.5

GASO

L 72-96

−25.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WMU

L 71-76

+0.5

WIN

W 72-66

−27.5

JXST

L 67-74

+1.5

WIU

W 84-64

+9.5

UND

W 75-58

−14.5

ILST

L 42-94

−10.5

AAMU

W 67-60

−13.5

UPST

L 78-85

+18.5

WIN

W 88-84

+18.5

GCU

L 61-82

−0.5

APP

L 49-67

−21.5

ODU

W 76-74

+2.5

JOES

W 68-62

−14.5

GASO

L 81-82

+5.5

GAST

L 71-89

+11.5

ODU

L 66-70

−15.5

APP

W 67-62

−4.5

MRSH

W 85-83

+16.5

GASO

W 79-75

−3.5

TXST

W 72-70

+1.5

USM

W 85-67

+10.5

USA

L 48-53

−38.5

ULM

W 83-79

+15.5

ARST

L 66-70

−15.5

MASS

W 94-91

+37.5

W 69-65

+1.5

JMU

L 65-67

−8.5

MRSH

W 79-75

+0.5

GAST

W 76-71

+5.5

JMU

W 69-68

−4.5

GASO

L 72-96

+16.5

over 17under 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Winthrop has the better starters

Position by position: Winthrop 1, Coastal 0, even 4

WinthropBetterCoastal

G M. Davis TR9.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 12

Even

G T. Thompson3.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 15

G S. Sims TR9.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 30

Even

G D. Washington TR4.5 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 25

G A. Smith TR7.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 60

WINSmall

G T. Perry TR4.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

G S. Hendawy5.2 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast Score 30

Even

G D. Craig4.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 31

F G. Natsvlishvili TR7.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 1 ast Score 43

Even

F A. Hardaway TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 44

WinthropBetterCoastal

WIN offense135th of 366 · -3.9

WINSmall

CCU defense246th of 366 · -6.5

WIN defense298th of 366 · -7.6

Even

CCU offense295th of 366 · -9.1

Backcourt-5.8 · 4 players

CCUSmall

Backcourt-4.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

Bench-1.7 · 4 players

Even

Bench-1.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestWIN betterCCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Winthrop

Guards

M. Davis26 min · TRS. Sims25 min · TRA. Smith18 min · TRS. Hendawy16 minK. Fisher11 min · TRH. Harrison2 min

Forwards

G. Natsvlishvili20 min · TRT. Hamilton7 minT. HarrisNewJ. CwikNew

Coastal

Guards

T. Thompson20 minD. Washington15 min · TRT. Perry13 min · TRD. Craig12 minJ. Cross6 min · TRJ. AlstonNew

Forwards

A. Hardaway20 min · TRD. Green11 minD. Fuquay8 min · TRF. BighamNewJ. BuzzardNew

Centers

C. Middleton10 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WIN81.5 #40

CCU71.8 #251

Points per possession

WIN1.13 #79

CCU1.03 #290

Pace (possessions)

WIN72.0 #35

CCU69.9 #121

Shooting

Effective FG%

WIN49.7 #250

CCU47.9 #314

3-point %

WIN33.2 #217

CCU33.5 #196

3-point attempt rate

WIN44.1 #88

CCU43.1 #113

Free throw rate

WIN44.0 #10

CCU32.3 #254

Possessions

Turnover rate

WIN14.7 #52

CCU15.3 #84

Offensive rebound rate

WIN34.1 #63

CCU26.9 #296

Assists per game

WIN13.6 #177

CCU9.9 #359

Defense

Points allowed

WIN77.7 #261

CCU73.5 #143

Points allowed per possession

WIN1.08 #154

CCU1.05 #88

Opponent effective FG%

WIN51.5 #182

CCU46.8 #18

Opponent 3-point %

WIN32.9 #113

CCU32.8 #105

Turnovers forced

WIN16.6 #174

CCU12.3 #364

Defensive rebound rate

WIN72.3 #55

CCU72.4 #52

Steals per game

WIN6.6 #161

CCU4.3 #360

Blocks per game

WIN2.7 #281

CCU3.2 #187

WIN		CCU
Scoring
81.5 #40	Points per game	71.8 #251
1.13 #79	Points per possession	1.03 #290
72.0 #35	Pace (possessions)	69.9 #121
Shooting
49.7 #250	Effective FG%	47.9 #314
33.2 #217	3-point %	33.5 #196
44.1 #88	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #113
44.0 #10	Free throw rate	32.3 #254
Possessions
14.7 #52	Turnover rate	15.3 #84
34.1 #63	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #296
13.6 #177	Assists per game	9.9 #359
Defense
77.7 #261	Points allowed	73.5 #143
1.08 #154	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #88
51.5 #182	Opponent effective FG%	46.8 #18
32.9 #113	Opponent 3-point %	32.8 #105
16.6 #174	Turnovers forced	12.3 #364
72.3 #55	Defensive rebound rate	72.4 #52
6.6 #161	Steals per game	4.3 #360
2.7 #281	Blocks per game	3.2 #187

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Winthrop

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs High Point76–91
Wvs Presbyterian73–71
Wvs Charleston So86–81
Wvs Presbyterian74–70
L@ Charleston So84–86

A week or more of rest.

Coastal

18-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs GA Southern72–96
W@ James Madison69–68
W@ Georgia St76–71
Wvs Marshall79–75
Lvs James Madison65–67

A week or more of rest.

Winthrop Eagles at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

What could decide it: WIN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Winthrop

Coastal

Winthrop has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Winthrop

Coastal