1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. UTSA @ USA
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

UTSA Roadrunners at South Alabama Jaguars

Mitchell Center · at South Alabama
#192UTSAUTSA
@
#227USASouth Alabama
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UTSAThis seasonUSA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USA 76–73 · win probability USA 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USA has more of the edges

UTSA 1, USA 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTSA 17.4%, USA 13.1%. Forced: UTSA 14.7%, USA 18.0%
USABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTSA 44.8 and allows 53.3; USA 52.6 and allows 50.1
USABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTSA 29.5, USA 38.5. Allowed: UTSA 33.3, USA 25.4
USABig
Three-pointers
UTSA hits 29.2% and allows 35.1%; USA hits 34.5% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 41.3% and 36.5% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
UTSA has played the 104th-hardest schedule, USA the 223rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: UTSA plays 69.6 a game (142nd fastest), USA 67.1 (277th). Faster games mean more points
UTSASmall
UTSA offense vs USA defense
Offense 155th of 366 against a defense 212th, on the model’s ratings
USASmall
Home court
USA at home. This season: USA 0-0 at home, UTSA 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTSA 15%, USA 21%. Transfers in: UTSA 9, USA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTSA 30.2%, USA 25.0%. Defensive: UTSA 61.3%, USA 68.6%
Even
USA offense vs UTSA defense
Offense 242nd of 366 against a defense 238th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USA -3.1—
Total—149.4—
Projected score—UTSA 73.1 · USA 76.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSA -1.7—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scoreUTSA 34.1 · USA 35.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

South Alabama has the better starters

Position by position: UTSA 0, South Alabama 2, even 3
UTSABetterSouth Alabama
G D. Hayes8.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 16
No call
G A. Goldstein NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
G J. Kelly TR8.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 44
No call
G A. Lewis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
G D. Williams TR10 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 72
No call
G J. Langsy NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
G P. Turner TR7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 31
USABig
F P. Law13.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86
G I. Coleman TR6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50
USASmall
F S. Williams6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.2 ast Score 84
UTSABetterSouth Alabama
UTSA offense155th of 366 · -4.7
UTSASmall
USA defense212th of 366 · -5.4
UTSA defense238th of 366 · -6.2
Even
USA offense242nd of 366 · -7.3
Backcourt-5.4 · 5 players
No call
BackcourtNo numbers yet
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+3.5 · 2 players
Bench-3.5 · 5 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestUTSA betterUSA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UTSA
Guards
D. Hayes31 minJ. Kelly27 min · TRD. Williams22 min · TRP. Turner20 min · TRI. Coleman19 min · TRS. Eberwein19 min · TR
Forwards
A. Smith5 min · TRC. OkpukparaNewM. BroxtonNewJ. PetersonNewK. TaylorNew
South Alabama
Guards
A. GoldsteinNewA. LewisNewJ. LangsyNewS. ShoptawNewD. WilliamsNewD. RomanNew
Forwards
P. Law26 minS. Williams15 minL. KunzewitschNewO. KenneyNewR. WilliamsNewD. HueittNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTSAUSA
Scoring
67.3 #329Points per game73.2 #218
0.96 #348Points per possession1.10 #139
69.6 #142Pace (possessions)67.1 #277
Shooting
44.8 #360Effective FG%52.6 #120
29.2 #3513-point %34.5 #146
41.3 #1433-point attempt rate36.5 #237
29.5 #320Free throw rate38.5 #89
Possessions
17.4 #231Turnover rate13.1 #8
30.2 #191Offensive rebound rate25.0 #341
10.1 #357Assists per game11.9 #287
Defense
82.9 #345Points allowed71.3 #85
1.20 #356Points allowed per possession1.06 #100
53.3 #277Opponent effective FG%50.1 #105
35.1 #251Opponent 3-point %33.1 #133
14.7 #309Turnovers forced18.0 #96
61.3 #363Defensive rebound rate68.6 #222
6.3 #203Steals per game7.9 #46
4.3 #52Blocks per game2.2 #330
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UTSA

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 1-17 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Rice71–80
  • Lvs Wichita St67–84
  • Lvs East Carolina81–82
  • L@ Tulsa74–100
  • Lvs FAU52–60

A week or more of rest.

South Alabama

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Auburn67–78
  • Lvs GA Southern85–94
  • Lvs Southern Miss55–68
  • Wvs UL Monroe89–54
  • Wvs Troy65–54

A week or more of rest.