1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. SOU @ FRES
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Southern Jaguars at Fresno State Bulldogs

Save Mart Center · at Fresno St
#309SOUSouthern
@
#174FRESFresno St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SOUThis seasonFRES
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FRES 81–68 · win probability FRES 87%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FRES has more of the edges

SOU 2, FRES 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
SOU has played the 269th-hardest schedule, FRES the 103rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
FRESBig
FRES offense vs SOU defense
Offense 176th of 366 against a defense 309th, on the model’s ratings
FRESSmall
SOU offense vs FRES defense
Offense 296th of 366 against a defense 190th, on the model’s ratings
FRESSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SOU 49.1 and allows 53.2; FRES 50.6 and allows 51.5
FRESSmall
Three-pointers
SOU hits 34.8% and allows 36.7%; FRES hits 32.1% and allows 30.7%. Threes are 32.0% and 40.9% of their shots
FRESSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SOU 39.8, FRES 33.8. Allowed: SOU 42.9, FRES 28.6
SOUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SOU 16.6%, FRES 18.1%. Forced: SOU 18.6%, FRES 18.2%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: SOU plays 72.3 a game (28th fastest), FRES 69.3 (156th). Faster games mean more points
FRESSmall
Home court
FRES at home. This season: FRES 0-0 at home, SOU 0-0 away
SOUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SOU 31.4%, FRES 27.9%. Defensive: SOU 68.7%, FRES 69.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SOU 2%, FRES 0%. Transfers in: SOU 8, FRES 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FRES -12.9—
Total—148.7—
Projected score—SOU 67.9 · FRES 80.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFRES -7.6—
1H total69.5—
1H projected scoreSOU 31 · FRES 38.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Fresno St has the better starters

Position by position: Southern 0, Fresno St 2, even 3
SouthernBetterFresno St
G J. Page TR12.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 42
No call
G D. Lungu TR13.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 3 ast Not ranked
G D. Dormu TR5.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 2 ast Score 14
FRESBig
G R. Candelino TR11.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 76
G M. Ferguson TR5.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 9
FRESSmall
G B. Amuneke TR2.1 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28
F R. King TR4.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42
Even
F B. Henige TR4.9 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38
C I. Olajuwon TR3.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.1 ast Score 20
No call
C B. Fall TR0.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
SouthernBetterFresno St
SOU offense296th of 366 · -9.2
FRESSmall
FRES defense190th of 366 · -4.4
SOU defense309th of 366 · -8.0
FRESBig
FRES offense176th of 366 · -5.4
Backcourt-5.4 · 3 players
FRESBig
Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players
Bench-3.3 · 4 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestSOU betterFRES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Southern
Guards
J. Page30 min · TRD. Dormu19 min · TRM. Ferguson17 min · TRL. Larvadain11 min · TRS. Van Dorn3 min · TRJ. HunterNew
Forwards
R. King13 min · TRA. HallNew
Centers
I. Olajuwon14 min · TRN. Boyde11 min · TRL. Bell5 min
Fresno St
Guards
D. Lungu27 min · TRR. Candelino25 min · TRB. Amuneke8 min · TRN. ZulemieNewK. PerryNewQ. RhymesNew
Forwards
B. Henige20 min · TRR. ParsleyNewY. Kesse-BedaNewA. GrangerNewM. VuckovicNewC. SchroederNew
Centers
B. Fall5 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SOUFRES
Scoring
76.2 #136Points per game72.3 #233
1.06 #239Points per possession1.04 #266
72.3 #28Pace (possessions)69.3 #156
Shooting
49.1 #287Effective FG%50.6 #206
34.8 #1293-point %32.1 #274
32.0 #3293-point attempt rate40.9 #146
39.8 #61Free throw rate33.8 #218
Possessions
16.6 #169Turnover rate18.1 #277
31.4 #144Offensive rebound rate27.9 #272
13.9 #156Assists per game12.6 #247
Defense
80.2 #324Points allowed73.5 #142
1.11 #236Points allowed per possession1.06 #110
53.2 #274Opponent effective FG%51.5 #184
36.7 #339Opponent 3-point %30.7 #30
18.6 #67Turnovers forced18.2 #88
68.7 #217Defensive rebound rate69.4 #183
8.3 #26Steals per game6.7 #154
3.8 #97Blocks per game2.2 #331
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View66–72
  • Wvs Florida A&M73–70
  • Wvs AR-Pine Bluff84–81
  • W@ Alabama A&M88–85
  • W@ Alabama St71–64

A week or more of rest.

Fresno St

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Colorado St63–67
  • L@ Grand Canyon60–85
  • Wvs San José St82–68
  • Lvs Boise St53–69
  • L@ Colorado St70–74

A week or more of rest.