Cal State Northridge Matadors at Fresno State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 9, 9:00 PM ETSave Mart Center · at Fresno St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: CSU Northridge and Fresno St
CSUN	This season	FRES
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FRES 79–74 · win probability FRES 68%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FRES has more of the edges

CSUN 2, FRES 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CSUNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CSUN 31.9%, FRES 27.9%. Defensive: CSUN 73.4%, FRES 69.4%

Context

Schedule so far

CSUN has played the 219th-hardest schedule, FRES the 103rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

FRESSmall

FRES offense vs CSUN defense

Offense 176th of 366 against a defense 271st, on the model’s ratings

FRESSmall

Three-pointers

CSUN hits 32.4% and allows 34.4%; FRES hits 32.1% and allows 30.7%. Threes are 33.6% and 40.9% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: CSUN plays 75.6 a game (2nd fastest), FRES 69.3 (156th). Faster games mean more points

FRESSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CSUN 34.2, FRES 33.8. Allowed: CSUN 34.3, FRES 28.6

FRESSmall

Home court

FRES at home. This season: FRES 0-0 at home, CSUN 0-0 away

CSUNSmall

CSUN offense vs FRES defense

Offense 140th of 366 against a defense 190th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CSUN 18%, FRES 0%. Transfers in: CSUN 7, FRES 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CSUN 17.5%, FRES 18.1%. Forced: CSUN 16.5%, FRES 18.2%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CSUN 51.3 and allows 51.6; FRES 50.6 and allows 51.5

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	FRES -5.2	—
Total	—	153.3	—
Projected score	—	CSUN 74 · FRES 79.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FRES -3.0	—
1H total	71.6	—
1H projected score	CSUN 34.3 · FRES 37.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSUN LLLWL	14-18	44%	5-10	—
FRES WLWLW	21-10	68%	12-4	—

Venue/role: CSUN away; FRES home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSUN OOUUO	19-13	59%	18-14
FRES UUUUU	12-19	39%	12-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
FRES	2-8 20%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

CSU Northridge

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs UND	W93–85WO

Fresno St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs SF	L57–77LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CSUN 1–2 FRESFRES leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · CSUN 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 10, 2025-26	FRES 87 @ CSUN 89	CSUN -3.5	FRES W
Dec 7, 2022-23	CSUN 56 @ FRES 65	FRES -13.5	CSUN W
Dec 4, 2021-22	CSUN 43 @ FRES 61	FRES -13	FRES W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

CSU Northridge

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-13

59% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

L W L W L L W L W W W L L W W L W L L W W W W W W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L W L W L L W L L W W W L W L L W L L W W L W W W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1359%

U O O O U U U O O O O O O U O U O O U O U O O U O U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UNI	L 57-86	+9.5	L −19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	@UND	W 93-85	-6.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 178
Nov 11	@NDSU	L 68-90	+4.5	L −17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 16	vsTROY	W 94-85	+4.5	W +13.5	157.5	O 179
Nov 26	vsIDHO	L 64-78	+1.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 142
Nov 28	vsIDST	L 50-82	+1.5	L −30.5	148.5	U 132
Dec 4	vsCSUB	W 87-66	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 6	@UCI	L 71-85	+7.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsFRES	W 89-87	-3.5	L −1.5	161.5	O 176
Dec 13	@DEL	W 88-66	+1.5	W +23.5	144.5	O 154
Dec 22	vsSAC	W 100-88	-8.5	W +3.5	164.5	O 188
Dec 27	@STAN	L 80-88	+15.5	W +7.5	160.5	O 168
Jan 1	@UCD	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 169
Jan 3	vsUCSB	W 74-65	-2.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsCP	W 95-90	-6.5	L −1.5	175.5	O 185
Jan 10	@CSUF	L 79-86	+1.5	L −5.5	173.5	U 165
Jan 15	@UCSD	W 84-79	+7.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 163
Jan 17	vsLBSU	L 80-87	-7.5	L −14.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 24	@HAW	L 68-89	+10.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 157
Jan 29	vsUCD	W 94-78	-3.5	W +12.5	163.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsUCSD	W 81-64	+1.5	W +18.5	160.5	U 145
Feb 5	@CP	W 97-96	-2.5	L −1.5	177.5	O 193
Feb 7	vsUCR	W 88-74	-10.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 162
Feb 14	vsHAW	W 84-60	+2.5	W +26.5	162.5	U 144
Feb 19	@UCSB	W 85-83	+5.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 21	@LBSU	W 78-76	-2.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 154
Feb 26	vsUCI	L 67-68	-1.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 135
Feb 28	@UCR	L 84-95	-4.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 5	@CSUB	W 86-84	-8.5	L −6.5	163.5	O 170
Mar 7	vsCSUF	L 77-90	-5.5	L −18.5	170.5	U 167
Mar 12	vsUCSD	W 80-70	+1.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 150
Mar 13	vsUCI	L 78-93	+3.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−19.5

UND

W 93-85

+1.5

NDSU

L 68-90

−17.5

TROY

W 94-85

+13.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−12.5

IDST

L 50-82

−30.5

CSUB

W 87-66

+15.5

UCI

L 71-85

−6.5

FRES

W 89-87

−1.5

DEL

W 88-66

+23.5

SAC

W 100-88

+3.5

STAN

L 80-88

+7.5

UCD

L 80-89

−5.5

UCSB

W 74-65

+6.5

W 95-90

−1.5

CSUF

L 79-86

−5.5

UCSD

W 84-79

+12.5

LBSU

L 80-87

−14.5

HAW

L 68-89

−10.5

UCD

W 94-78

+12.5

UCSD

W 81-64

+18.5

W 97-96

−1.5

UCR

W 88-74

+3.5

HAW

W 84-60

+26.5

UCSB

W 85-83

+7.5

LBSU

W 78-76

−0.5

UCI

L 67-68

−2.5

UCR

L 84-95

−15.5

CSUB

W 86-84

−6.5

CSUF

L 77-90

−18.5

UCSD

W 80-70

+11.5

UCI

L 78-93

−11.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−10.5

UND

W 93-85

+19.5

NDSU

L 68-90

+1.5

TROY

W 94-85

+21.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−17.5

IDST

L 50-82

−16.5

CSUB

W 87-66

−2.5

UCI

L 71-85

+3.5

FRES

W 89-87

+14.5

DEL

W 88-66

+9.5

SAC

W 100-88

+23.5

STAN

L 80-88

+7.5

UCD

L 80-89

+6.5

UCSB

W 74-65

−17.5

W 95-90

+9.5

CSUF

L 79-86

−8.5

UCSD

W 84-79

+3.5

LBSU

L 80-87

+8.5

HAW

L 68-89

−1.5

UCD

W 94-78

+8.5

UCSD

W 81-64

−15.5

W 97-96

+15.5

UCR

W 88-74

+1.5

HAW

W 84-60

−18.5

UCSB

W 85-83

+11.5

LBSU

W 78-76

−3.5

UCI

L 67-68

−18.5

UCR

L 84-95

+20.5

CSUB

W 86-84

+6.5

CSUF

L 77-90

−3.5

UCSD

W 80-70

−3.5

UCI

L 78-93

+18.5

over 19under 13avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fresno St

31 games played

Straight up

12-19

39% wins

Against the spread

21-10

68% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-19

39% overs · avg −4.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1939%

L W L W W W W L L L L L L W L W W L L W W L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

21-1068%

L W L W W W W L L W L W W W L W W W L W W W W W L W W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1939%

U O O U O O U U U O U U U U U O U O U U O U O O O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUPST	L 66-67	-9.5	L −10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsLBSU	W 82-62	-6.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 144
Nov 12	vsUCSD	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 15	vsUVU	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 18	vsSFA	W 80-78	+2.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 21	vsNOLA	W 85-76	-6.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsPEPP	W 76-53	-2.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 129
Nov 30	vsCSUB	L 71-76	-10.5	L −15.5	150.5	U 147
Dec 6	@ARK	L 58-82	+19.5	L −4.5	161.5	U 140
Dec 10	@CSUN	L 87-89	+3.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 176
Dec 20	@UNLV	L 72-84	+8.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 156
Dec 30	vsUSU	L 63-72	+14.5	W +5.5	154.5	U 135
Jan 3	vsNEV	L 65-66	+4.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 6	@SJSU	W 70-55	-1.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 125
Jan 10	@SDSU	L 52-71	+14.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 123
Jan 13	vsCSU	W 79-69	+3.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 148
Jan 17	vsWYO	W 63-60	+3.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 123
Jan 21	@UNM	L 74-83	+15.5	W +6.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsGCU	L 57-68	+4.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 125
Jan 31	@AF	W 79-62	-9.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 3	vsUNLV	W 98-96	+1.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 194
Feb 7	@NEV	L 59-69	+11.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 10	@USU	L 78-91	+21.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 169
Feb 14	vsAF	W 93-63	-14.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 156
Feb 17	@WYO	L 82-92	+9.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 174
Feb 21	vsUNM	L 78-80	+9.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 158
Feb 24	@CSU	L 70-74	+8.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 144
Feb 28	vsBOIS	L 53-69	+7.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 122
Mar 3	vsSJSU	W 82-68	-7.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 7	@GCU	L 60-85	+12.5	L −12.5	149.5	U 145
Mar 11	vsCSU	L 63-67	+7.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

L 66-67

−10.5

LBSU

W 82-62

+13.5

UCSD

L 73-78

−6.5

UVU

W 75-74

+5.5

SFA

W 80-78

+4.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+2.5

PEPP

W 76-53

+20.5

CSUB

L 71-76

−15.5

ARK

L 58-82

−4.5

CSUN

L 87-89

+1.5

UNLV

L 72-84

−3.5

USU

L 63-72

+5.5

NEV

L 65-66

+3.5

SJSU

W 70-55

+13.5

SDSU

L 52-71

−4.5

CSU

W 79-69

+13.5

WYO

W 63-60

+6.5

UNM

L 74-83

+6.5

GCU

L 57-68

−6.5

W 79-62

+7.5

UNLV

W 98-96

+3.5

NEV

L 59-69

+1.5

USU

L 78-91

+8.5

W 93-63

+15.5

WYO

L 82-92

−0.5

UNM

L 78-80

+7.5

CSU

L 70-74

+4.5

BOIS

L 53-69

−8.5

SJSU

W 82-68

+6.5

GCU

L 60-85

−12.5

CSU

L 63-67

+3.5

covered 21didn’t cover 10avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

L 66-67

−31.5

LBSU

W 82-62

+1.5

UCSD

L 73-78

+2.5

UVU

W 75-74

−7.5

SFA

W 80-78

+11.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+6.5

PEPP

W 76-53

−21.5

CSUB

L 71-76

−3.5

ARK

L 58-82

−21.5

CSUN

L 87-89

+14.5

UNLV

L 72-84

−3.5

USU

L 63-72

−19.5

NEV

L 65-66

−15.5

SJSU

W 70-55

−24.5

SDSU

L 52-71

−23.5

CSU

W 79-69

+8.5

WYO

W 63-60

−22.5

UNM

L 74-83

+5.5

GCU

L 57-68

−20.5

W 79-62

−0.5

UNLV

W 98-96

+40.5

NEV

L 59-69

−21.5

USU

L 78-91

+16.5

W 93-63

+13.5

WYO

L 82-92

+25.5

UNM

L 78-80

+1.5

CSU

L 70-74

−5.5

BOIS

L 53-69

−27.5

SJSU

W 82-68

−1.5

GCU

L 60-85

−4.5

CSU

L 63-67

−16.5

over 12under 19avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Fresno St has the better starters

Position by position: CSU Northridge 0, Fresno St 1, even 4

CSU NorthridgeBetterFresno St

G J. Davis16.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 7.5 ast Score 71

No call

G D. Lungu TR13.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 3 ast Not ranked

G C. Smith TR7.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36

FRESBig

G R. Candelino TR11.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 76

G M. Ballew TR8.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19

Even

G B. Amuneke TR2.1 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28

G B. Hicks TR8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 49

Even

F B. Henige TR4.9 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38

G K. Ekissi TR4.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 29

No call

C B. Fall TR0.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

CSU NorthridgeBetterFresno St

CSUN offense140th of 366 · -4.2

Even

FRES defense190th of 366 · -4.4

CSUN defense271st of 366 · -6.8

FRESSmall

FRES offense176th of 366 · -5.4

Backcourt-4.7 · 5 players

FRESBig

Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestCSUN betterFRES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

CSU Northridge

Guards

J. Davis34 minC. Smith30 min · TRM. Ballew23 min · TRB. Hicks22 min · TRK. Ekissi17 min · TRG. Gazarian2 min

Forwards

J. Martin7 min · TRB. OmotNew

Centers

E. Stephen15 min · TRL. Niang8 min · TR

Fresno St

Guards

D. Lungu27 min · TRR. Candelino25 min · TRB. Amuneke8 min · TRN. ZulemieNewK. PerryNewQ. RhymesNew

Forwards

B. Henige20 min · TRR. ParsleyNewY. Kesse-BedaNewA. GrangerNewM. VuckovicNewC. SchroederNew

Centers

B. Fall5 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CSUN80.6 #54

FRES72.3 #233

Points per possession

CSUN1.06 #219

FRES1.04 #266

Pace (possessions)

CSUN75.6 #2

FRES69.3 #156

Shooting

Effective FG%

CSUN51.3 #183

FRES50.6 #206

3-point %

CSUN32.4 #260

FRES32.1 #274

3-point attempt rate

CSUN33.6 #308

FRES40.9 #146

Free throw rate

CSUN34.2 #200

FRES33.8 #218

Possessions

Turnover rate

CSUN17.5 #237

FRES18.1 #277

Offensive rebound rate

CSUN31.9 #130

FRES27.9 #272

Assists per game

CSUN16.7 #31

FRES12.6 #247

Defense

Points allowed

CSUN81.3 #336

FRES73.5 #142

Points allowed per possession

CSUN1.08 #153

FRES1.06 #110

Opponent effective FG%

CSUN51.6 #191

FRES51.5 #184

Opponent 3-point %

CSUN34.4 #210

FRES30.7 #30

Turnovers forced

CSUN16.5 #187

FRES18.2 #88

Defensive rebound rate

CSUN73.4 #26

FRES69.4 #183

Steals per game

CSUN6.6 #166

FRES6.7 #154

Blocks per game

CSUN2.8 #259

FRES2.2 #331

CSUN		FRES
Scoring
80.6 #54	Points per game	72.3 #233
1.06 #219	Points per possession	1.04 #266
75.6 #2	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #156
Shooting
51.3 #183	Effective FG%	50.6 #206
32.4 #260	3-point %	32.1 #274
33.6 #308	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #146
34.2 #200	Free throw rate	33.8 #218
Possessions
17.5 #237	Turnover rate	18.1 #277
31.9 #130	Offensive rebound rate	27.9 #272
16.7 #31	Assists per game	12.6 #247
Defense
81.3 #336	Points allowed	73.5 #142
1.08 #153	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #110
51.6 #191	Opponent effective FG%	51.5 #184
34.4 #210	Opponent 3-point %	30.7 #30
16.5 #187	Turnovers forced	18.2 #88
73.4 #26	Defensive rebound rate	69.4 #183
6.6 #166	Steals per game	6.7 #154
2.8 #259	Blocks per game	2.2 #331

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

CSU Northridge

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UC Irvine78–93
Wvs UC San Diego80–70
Lvs Fullerton77–90
W@ Bakersfield86–84
L@ UC Riverside84–95

A week or more of rest.

Fresno St

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Colorado St63–67
L@ Grand Canyon60–85
Wvs San José St82–68
Lvs Boise St53–69
L@ Colorado St70–74

A week or more of rest.

Cal State Northridge Matadors at Fresno State Bulldogs

What could decide it: FRES has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

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ATS History · 2025-26

CSU Northridge

Fresno St

Fresno St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

CSU Northridge

Fresno St