Michigan State Spartans at Maryland Terrapins: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 9, 8:30 PM ETXFINITY Center · at Maryland · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Michigan St and Maryland
MSU	This season	MD
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSU 79–68 · win probability MSU 82%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSU has more of the edges

MSU 5, MD 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MSUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MSU 53.8 and allows 48.9; MD 48.1 and allows 54.4

MSUBig

Three-pointers

MSU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%; MD hits 31.7% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 36.4% and 46.9% of their shots

MSUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MSU 37.8%, MD 33.8%. Defensive: MSU 77.6%, MD 70.9%

MSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MSU 35.9, MD 36.4. Allowed: MSU 30.2, MD 35.8

MSUSmall

MD offense vs MSU defense

Offense 63rd of 366 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

MDSmall

Home court

MD at home. This season: MD 0-0 at home, MSU 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MSU 17.1%, MD 18.6%. Forced: MSU 14.9%, MD 14.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MSU 63%, MD 47%. Transfers in: MSU 1, MD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

MSU offense vs MD defense

Offense 21st of 366 against a defense 34th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MSU has played the 16th-hardest schedule, MD the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: MSU plays 67.3 a game (264th fastest), MD 67.0 (281st). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MSU -10.3	—
Total	—	147.0	—
Projected score	—	MSU 78.6 · MD 68.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSU -6.2	—
1H total	68.8	—
1H projected score	MSU 37.5 · MD 31.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU WLWWL	18-17	51%	6-4	—
MD LLWWW	16-17	48%	7-8	—

Venue/role: MSU away; MD home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU OOOUU	16-19	46%	27-8
MD UUOUO	18-15	55%	12-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
MD	3-7 30%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Michigan St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs MRMK	No recent meeting

Maryland

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	vs MORG	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

MSU 8–0 MDMSU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · MSU has won the last 8 meetings · MSU 7-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 24, 2025-26	MD 48 @ MSU 91	MSU -18.5	MSU W
Feb 26, 2024-25	MSU 58 @ MD 55	MD -3.5	MSU W
Feb 3, 2023-24	MD 54 @ MSU 63	MSU -5.5	MSU W
Jan 21, 2023-24	MSU 61 @ MD 59	MD -0.5	MSU W
Feb 7, 2022-23	MD 58 @ MSU 63	MSU -3.5	MSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Michigan St

35 games played

Straight up

27-8

77% wins

Against the spread

18-17

51% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-19

46% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-877%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W L W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1751%

L W L W L W W W L L L L L W W L W W W W L L L W L W L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1946%

O U U U U O U U U O O U O U U U U U U U O O O O O O U O U O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCOLG	W 80-69	-22.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 149
Nov 8	vsARK	W 69-66	-2.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 13	vsSJSU	W 79-60	-24.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsUK	W 83-66	+3.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsDETM	W 84-56	-30.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 25	vsECU	W 89-56	-19.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 27	vsUNC	W 74-58	-1.5	W +14.5	152.5	U 132
Dec 2	vsIOWA	W 71-52	-5.5	W +13.5	133.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsDUKE	L 60-66	+1.5	L −4.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 13	@PSU	W 76-72	-12.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 16	vsTOL	W 92-69	-23.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 20	vsOAK	W 79-70	-19.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 149
Dec 29	vsCOR	W 114-97	-23.5	L −6.5	160.5	O 211
Jan 2	@NEB	L 56-58	+2.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 114
Jan 5	vsUSC	W 80-51	-11.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 131
Jan 8	vsNU	W 76-66	-13.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 13	vsIU	W 81-60	-6.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 17	@WASH	W 80-63	-3.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 143
Jan 20	@ORE	W 68-52	-10.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 120
Jan 24	vsMD	W 91-48	-18.5	W +24.5	141.5	U 139
Jan 27	@RUTG	W 88-79	-14.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 167
Jan 30	vsMICH	L 71-83	+2.5	L −9.5	149.5	O 154
Feb 4	@MINN	L 73-76	-8.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 149
Feb 7	vsILL	W 85-82	-1.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 167
Feb 13	@WIS	L 71-92	-1.5	L −22.5	149.5	O 163
Feb 17	vsUCLA	W 82-59	-8.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 141
Feb 22	vsOSU	W 66-60	-10.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 126
Feb 26	@PUR	W 76-74	+5.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 150
Mar 1	@IU	W 77-64	-2.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 141
Mar 5	vsRUTG	W 91-87	-20.5	L −16.5	141.5	O 178
Mar 8	@MICH	L 80-90	+10.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsUCLA	L 84-88	-5.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 172
Mar 19	vsNDSU	W 92-67	-16.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 159
Mar 21	vsLOU	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 146
Mar 27	vsCONN	L 63-67	+2.5	L −1.5	136.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COLG

W 80-69

−11.5

ARK

W 69-66

+0.5

SJSU

W 79-60

−5.5

W 83-66

+20.5

DETM

W 84-56

−2.5

ECU

W 89-56

+13.5

UNC

W 74-58

+14.5

IOWA

W 71-52

+13.5

DUKE

L 60-66

−4.5

PSU

W 76-72

−8.5

TOL

W 92-69

−0.5

OAK

W 79-70

−10.5

COR

W 114-97

−6.5

NEB

L 56-58

+0.5

USC

W 80-51

+17.5

W 76-66

−3.5

W 81-60

+14.5

WASH

W 80-63

+13.5

ORE

W 68-52

+5.5

W 91-48

+24.5

RUTG

W 88-79

−5.5

MICH

L 71-83

−9.5

MINN

L 73-76

−11.5

ILL

W 85-82

+1.5

WIS

L 71-92

−22.5

UCLA

W 82-59

+14.5

OSU

W 66-60

−4.5

PUR

W 76-74

+7.5

W 77-64

+10.5

RUTG

W 91-87

−16.5

MICH

L 80-90

+0.5

UCLA

L 84-88

−9.5

NDSU

W 92-67

+8.5

LOU

W 77-69

+2.5

CONN

L 63-67

−1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 17avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COLG

W 80-69

+4.5

ARK

W 69-66

−20.5

SJSU

W 79-60

−4.5

W 83-66

−3.5

DETM

W 84-56

−9.5

ECU

W 89-56

+4.5

UNC

W 74-58

−20.5

IOWA

W 71-52

−10.5

DUKE

L 60-66

−15.5

PSU

W 76-72

+2.5

TOL

W 92-69

+10.5

OAK

W 79-70

−6.5

COR

W 114-97

+50.5

NEB

L 56-58

−32.5

USC

W 80-51

−20.5

W 76-66

−1.5

W 81-60

−4.5

WASH

W 80-63

−2.5

ORE

W 68-52

−19.5

W 91-48

−2.5

RUTG

W 88-79

+28.5

MICH

L 71-83

+4.5

MINN

L 73-76

+12.5

ILL

W 85-82

+24.5

WIS

L 71-92

+13.5

UCLA

W 82-59

+1.5

OSU

W 66-60

−20.5

PUR

W 76-74

+6.5

W 77-64

−3.5

RUTG

W 91-87

+36.5

MICH

L 80-90

+17.5

UCLA

L 84-88

+30.5

NDSU

W 92-67

+14.5

LOU

W 77-69

−5.5

CONN

L 63-67

−6.5

over 16under 19avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Maryland

33 games played

Straight up

12-21

36% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-15

55% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2136%

W L W W W W L L W L L L W L L L L W L L L L W W L L W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

L L L W L W L L W L W W W L L W L W L L L L W W L W W W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1555%

O U O O O U O O O O O U U U O U O O O U O U U O U O U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCOPP	W 83-61	-28.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 7	vsGTWN	L 60-70	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsALCN	W 84-64	-29.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 15	@MARQ	W 89-82	+8.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 171
Nov 19	vsMSM	W 95-90	-17.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 24	vsUNLV	W 74-67	-2.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsGONZ	L 61-100	+14.5	L −24.5	157.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsALA	L 72-105	+14.5	L −18.5	166.5	O 177
Dec 2	vsWAG	W 89-63	-22.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 152
Dec 6	@IOWA	L 64-83	+10.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 147
Dec 13	vsMICH	L 83-101	+19.5	W +1.5	163.5	O 184
Dec 20	@UVA	L 72-80	+16.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 152
Dec 28	vsODU	W 73-58	-14.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 131
Jan 2	vsORE	L 54-64	+1.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 118
Jan 7	vsIU	L 66-84	+7.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 10	@UCLA	L 55-67	+13.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 122
Jan 13	@USC	L 71-88	+9.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 159
Jan 18	vsPSU	W 96-73	-1.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 169
Jan 21	@ILL	L 70-89	+18.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 24	@MSU	L 48-91	+18.5	L −24.5	141.5	U 139
Feb 1	vsPUR	L 63-93	+15.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 5	vsOSU	L 62-82	+6.5	L −13.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 8	@MINN	W 67-62	+10.5	W +15.5	138.5	U 129
Feb 11	vsIOWA	W 77-70	+10.5	W +17.5	138.5	O 147
Feb 15	@RUTG	L 57-68	+2.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 125
Feb 18	@NU	L 74-78	+7.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 21	vsWASH	W 64-60	+4.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 124
Feb 25	@NEB	L 61-74	+16.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 135
Mar 1	vsRUTG	L 65-69	-4.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 134
Mar 4	@WIS	L 45-78	+14.5	L −18.5	153.5	U 123
Mar 8	vsILL	L 72-78	+14.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 150
Mar 10	vsORE	W 70-60	+4.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 130
Mar 11	vsIOWA	L 64-75	+11.5	W +0.5	133.5	O 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

−6.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

ALCN

W 84-64

−9.5

MARQ

W 89-82

+15.5

MSM

W 95-90

−12.5

UNLV

W 74-67

+4.5

GONZ

L 61-100

−24.5

ALA

L 72-105

−18.5

WAG

W 89-63

+3.5

IOWA

L 64-83

−8.5

MICH

L 83-101

+1.5

UVA

L 72-80

+8.5

ODU

W 73-58

+0.5

ORE

L 54-64

−8.5

L 66-84

−10.5

UCLA

L 55-67

+1.5

USC

L 71-88

−7.5

PSU

W 96-73

+21.5

ILL

L 70-89

−0.5

MSU

L 48-91

−24.5

PUR

L 63-93

−14.5

OSU

L 62-82

−13.5

MINN

W 67-62

+15.5

IOWA

W 77-70

+17.5

RUTG

L 57-68

−8.5

L 74-78

+3.5

WASH

W 64-60

+8.5

NEB

L 61-74

+3.5

RUTG

L 65-69

−8.5

WIS

L 45-78

−18.5

ILL

L 72-78

+8.5

ORE

W 70-60

+14.5

IOWA

L 64-75

+0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

+4.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

ALCN

W 84-64

+1.5

MARQ

W 89-82

+24.5

MSM

W 95-90

+39.5

UNLV

W 74-67

−23.5

GONZ

L 61-100

+3.5

ALA

L 72-105

+10.5

WAG

W 89-63

+8.5

IOWA

L 64-83

+9.5

MICH

L 83-101

+20.5

UVA

L 72-80

−1.5

ODU

W 73-58

−23.5

ORE

L 54-64

−28.5

L 66-84

+2.5

UCLA

L 55-67

−25.5

USC

L 71-88

+8.5

PSU

W 96-73

+20.5

ILL

L 70-89

+6.5

MSU

L 48-91

−2.5

PUR

L 63-93

+7.5

OSU

L 62-82

−6.5

MINN

W 67-62

−9.5

IOWA

W 77-70

+8.5

RUTG

L 57-68

−19.5

L 74-78

+9.5

WASH

W 64-60

−19.5

NEB

L 61-74

−7.5

RUTG

L 65-69

−9.5

WIS

L 45-78

−30.5

ILL

L 72-78

+4.5

ORE

W 70-60

−9.5

IOWA

L 64-75

+5.5

over 18under 15avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Maryland has the better starters

Position by position: Michigan St 2, Maryland 3, even 0

Michigan StBetterMaryland

G J. Fears15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.4 ast Score 99

MSUSmall

G M. McNair TR16.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 84

G K. Teng7.3 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 63

MDSmall

G A. Mills12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

F C. Carr12 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85

MSUSmall

G B. Boswell TR6.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.1 ast Score 70

F J. Scott5.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 53

MDBig

F P. Payne17.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 100

C A. Bonke TR10.4 pts · 8.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 80

MDSmall

F T. Buljan TR13.1 pts · 10.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 97

Michigan StBetterMaryland

MSU offense21st of 366 · +7.6

Even

MD defense34th of 366 · +3.3

MSU defense5th of 366 · +9.3

MSUSmall

MD offense63rd of 366 · +2.4

Backcourt+7.0 · 2 players

MSUSmall

Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+4.8 · 3 players

MDBig

Frontcourt+11.4 · 2 players

Bench+0.9 · 4 players

MSUBig

Bench-2.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMSU betterMD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Michigan St

Guards

J. Fears32 minK. Teng18 minM. WatkinsNewJ. JervisNewC. MedlockNew

Forwards

C. Carr29 minJ. Scott21 minC. Ward15 minJ. McCulloch7 minB. Walton1 minC. Walton1 min

Centers

A. Bonke26 min · TRE. TaylorNew

Maryland

Guards

M. McNair37 min · TRA. Mills27 minB. Boswell27 min · TRD. Wagner24 min · TRM. Jabriel20 minG. Turkson11 min

Forwards

P. Payne27 minT. Buljan26 min · TRR. Jennings13 min · TRA. BrownNewB. OladotunNewA. TambedouNew

Centers

A. K'MedehoutoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MSU78.8 #84

MD69.7 #291

Points per possession

MSU1.17 #40

MD1.04 #270

Pace (possessions)

MSU67.3 #264

MD67.0 #281

Shooting

Effective FG%

MSU53.8 #72

MD48.1 #311

3-point %

MSU36.3 #47

MD31.7 #293

3-point attempt rate

MSU36.4 #241

MD46.9 #35

Free throw rate

MSU35.9 #157

MD36.4 #142

Possessions

Turnover rate

MSU17.1 #217

MD18.6 #300

Offensive rebound rate

MSU37.8 #10

MD33.8 #73

Assists per game

MSU18.6 #4

MD10.4 #351

Defense

Points allowed

MSU68.3 #37

MD76.6 #232

Points allowed per possession

MSU1.02 #40

MD1.14 #312

Opponent effective FG%

MSU48.9 #61

MD54.4 #312

Opponent 3-point %

MSU33.0 #119

MD36.3 #317

Turnovers forced

MSU14.9 #296

MD14.9 #294

Defensive rebound rate

MSU77.6 #1

MD70.9 #111

Steals per game

MSU5.1 #328

MD4.8 #345

Blocks per game

MSU4.1 #59

MD2.9 #237

MSU		MD
Scoring
78.8 #84	Points per game	69.7 #291
1.17 #40	Points per possession	1.04 #270
67.3 #264	Pace (possessions)	67.0 #281
Shooting
53.8 #72	Effective FG%	48.1 #311
36.3 #47	3-point %	31.7 #293
36.4 #241	3-point attempt rate	46.9 #35
35.9 #157	Free throw rate	36.4 #142
Possessions
17.1 #217	Turnover rate	18.6 #300
37.8 #10	Offensive rebound rate	33.8 #73
18.6 #4	Assists per game	10.4 #351
Defense
68.3 #37	Points allowed	76.6 #232
1.02 #40	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #312
48.9 #61	Opponent effective FG%	54.4 #312
33.0 #119	Opponent 3-point %	36.3 #317
14.9 #296	Turnovers forced	14.9 #294
77.6 #1	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #111
5.1 #328	Steals per game	4.8 #345
4.1 #59	Blocks per game	2.9 #237

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Michigan St

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn63–67
Wvs Louisville77–69
Wvs N Dakota St92–67
Lvs UCLA84–88
L@ Michigan80–90

A week or more of rest.

Maryland

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-17 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa64–75
Wvs Oregon70–60
Lvs Illinois72–78
L@ Wisconsin45–78
Lvs Rutgers65–69

A week or more of rest.

Michigan State Spartans at Maryland Terrapins

What could decide it: MSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Michigan St

Maryland

Maryland has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Michigan St

Maryland