1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. DRKE @ MSU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Drake Bulldogs at Michigan State Spartans

Breslin Center · at Michigan St
#144DRKEDrake
@
#10MSUMichigan St AP #6
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DRKEThis seasonMSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSU 87–59 · win probability MSU 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 146.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSU has more of the edges

DRKE 1, MSU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MSUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DRKE 26.6%, MSU 37.8%. Defensive: DRKE 70.1%, MSU 77.6%
MSUBig
Three-pointers
DRKE hits 34.0% and allows 36.4%; MSU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 45.7% and 36.4% of their shots
MSUBig
DRKE offense vs MSU defense
Offense 168th of 366 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings
MSUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: DRKE 51.4 and allows 52.6; MSU 53.8 and allows 48.9
Context
Schedule so far
DRKE has played the 147th-hardest schedule, MSU the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MSUBig
MSU offense vs DRKE defense
Offense 21st of 366 against a defense 132nd, on the model’s ratings
DRKESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DRKE 15.0%, MSU 17.1%. Forced: DRKE 14.6%, MSU 14.9%
MSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DRKE 33.5, MSU 35.9. Allowed: DRKE 32.0, MSU 30.2
MSUSmall
Home court
MSU at home. This season: MSU 0-0 at home, DRKE 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: DRKE plays 68.4 a game (209th fastest), MSU 67.3 (264th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DRKE 51%, MSU 63%. Transfers in: DRKE 3, MSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MSU -28.6—
Total—146.0—
Projected score—DRKE 58.7 · MSU 87.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMSU -16.9—
1H total68.3—
1H projected scoreDRKE 25.7 · MSU 42.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Michigan St has the better starters

Position by position: Drake 0, Michigan St 4, even 1
DrakeBetterMichigan St
G A. Alia6.8 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
MSUBig
G J. Fears15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.4 ast Score 99
G O. Larson10 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 42
MSUSmall
G K. Teng7.3 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 63
G E. Shetlar9 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57
MSUSmall
F C. Carr12 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85
F G. Oldham TR5.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1 ast Score 21
MSUSmall
F J. Scott5.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 53
F J. Carroll TR10.7 pts · 8.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
Even
C A. Bonke TR10.4 pts · 8.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 80
DrakeBetterMichigan St
DRKE offense168th of 366 · -5.1
MSUBig
MSU defense5th of 366 · +9.3
DRKE defense132nd of 366 · -2.5
MSUSmall
MSU offense21st of 366 · +7.6
Backcourt-3.7 · 3 players
MSUBig
Backcourt+7.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players
MSUBig
Frontcourt+4.8 · 3 players
Bench+0.1 · 2 players
Even
Bench+0.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestDRKE betterMSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Drake
Guards
A. Alia32 minO. Larson29 minE. Shetlar28 minD. Kindell17 min · TRD. IjadimbolaNewL. RushNew
Forwards
G. Oldham26 min · TRJ. Carroll25 min · TRG. Goodbary13 minJ. BurnsNewM. FlemonsNew
Michigan St
Guards
J. Fears32 minK. Teng18 minM. WatkinsNewJ. JervisNewC. MedlockNew
Forwards
C. Carr29 minJ. Scott21 minC. Ward15 minJ. McCulloch7 minB. Walton1 minC. Walton1 min
Centers
A. Bonke26 min · TRE. TaylorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DRKEMSU
Scoring
73.9 #200Points per game78.8 #84
1.08 #182Points per possession1.17 #40
68.4 #209Pace (possessions)67.3 #264
Shooting
51.4 #179Effective FG%53.8 #72
34.0 #1723-point %36.3 #47
45.7 #533-point attempt rate36.4 #241
33.5 #223Free throw rate35.9 #157
Possessions
15.0 #64Turnover rate17.1 #217
26.6 #310Offensive rebound rate37.8 #10
13.1 #202Assists per game18.6 #4
Defense
76.3 #225Points allowed68.3 #37
1.12 #261Points allowed per possession1.02 #40
52.6 #246Opponent effective FG%48.9 #61
36.4 #323Opponent 3-point %33.0 #119
14.6 #315Turnovers forced14.9 #296
70.1 #155Defensive rebound rate77.6 #1
5.2 #319Steals per game5.1 #328
2.9 #241Blocks per game4.1 #59
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Drake

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UIC51–72
  • Wvs Belmont100–79
  • Wvs S Illinois67–63
  • Lvs Northern Iowa53–75
  • L@ Valparaiso71–74

A week or more of rest.

Michigan St

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn63–67
  • Wvs Louisville77–69
  • Wvs N Dakota St92–67
  • Lvs UCLA84–88
  • L@ Michigan80–90

A week or more of rest.