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  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. WIS @ MARQ
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Wisconsin Badgers at Marquette Golden Eagles

Fiserv Forum · at Marquette
#41WISWisconsin
@
#42MARQMarquette
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WISThis seasonMARQ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MARQ 78–77 · win probability MARQ 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WIS has more of the edges

WIS 3, MARQ 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WISBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WIS 29.1%, MARQ 29.7%. Defensive: WIS 71.8%, MARQ 65.3%
WISSmall
Three-pointers
WIS hits 36.2% and allows 33.5%; MARQ hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 52.1% and 42.2% of their shots
MARQSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WIS 12.8%, MARQ 16.1%. Forced: WIS 14.3%, MARQ 19.3%
WISSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: WIS 54.5 and allows 51.4; MARQ 50.5 and allows 50.6
MARQSmall
Home court
MARQ at home. This season: MARQ 0-0 at home, WIS 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: WIS plays 70.0 a game (119th fastest), MARQ 70.9 (79th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WIS 54%, MARQ 64%. Transfers in: WIS 3, MARQ 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
WIS has played the 24th-hardest schedule, MARQ the 37th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: WIS 31.5, MARQ 32.8. Allowed: WIS 29.9, MARQ 32.0
Even
WIS offense vs MARQ defense
Offense 44th of 366 against a defense 36th, on the model’s ratings
Even
MARQ offense vs WIS defense
Offense 46th of 366 against a defense 40th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MARQ -1.3—
Total—154.8—
Projected score—WIS 76.8 · MARQ 78

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMARQ -0.6—
1H total72.3—
1H projected scoreWIS 35.9 · MARQ 36.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Wisconsin has the better starters

Position by position: Wisconsin 2, Marquette 1, even 2
WisconsinBetterMarquette
G E. Elmer TR12.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68
WISSmall
G C. Porter TR11.2 pts · 3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 45
G T. Autry TR10.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61
MARQBig
G N. Minessale TR19.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 4.2 ast Score 97
G B. Carrington8.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
Even
G N. James16.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.9 ast Score 99
F N. Winter13.1 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96
WISSmall
G A. Stevens7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 65
F A. Rapp9.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83
Even
F R. Parham12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 87
WisconsinBetterMarquette
WIS offense44th of 366 · +4.5
Even
MARQ defense36th of 366 · +3.1
WIS defense40th of 366 · +2.9
Even
MARQ offense46th of 366 · +4.2
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
MARQBig
Backcourt+8.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt+6.7 · 2 players
WISBig
Frontcourt+2.5 · 1 player
Bench-2.6 · 5 players
MARQBig
Bench+2.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWIS betterMARQ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Wisconsin
Guards
E. Elmer31 min · TRT. Autry29 min · TRB. Carrington18 minJ. Janicki17 minH. Jones7 minZ. Kinziger6 min
Forwards
N. Winter31 minA. Rapp23 minV. Onuetu18 min · TRW. Garlock7 minI. RiddleNew
Marquette
Guards
C. Porter35 min · TRN. Minessale32 min · TRN. James29 minA. Stevens26 minE. JohnstonNewN. WalkerNew
Forwards
R. Parham29 minS. Fru22 min · TRD. Owens16 minC. Hamilton13 minM. Phillips8 minJ. Clark6 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WISMARQ
Scoring
83.0 #28Points per game75.2 #160
1.18 #27Points per possession1.06 #223
70.0 #119Pace (possessions)70.9 #79
Shooting
54.5 #52Effective FG%50.5 #215
36.2 #503-point %31.7 #297
52.1 #63-point attempt rate42.2 #133
31.5 #267Free throw rate32.8 #243
Possessions
12.8 #4Turnover rate16.1 #145
29.1 #232Offensive rebound rate29.7 #216
16.0 #48Assists per game15.5 #63
Defense
76.1 #221Points allowed75.8 #213
1.09 #193Points allowed per possession1.07 #125
51.4 #178Opponent effective FG%50.6 #131
33.5 #152Opponent 3-point %32.7 #104
14.3 #327Turnovers forced19.3 #39
71.8 #74Defensive rebound rate65.3 #331
5.6 #287Steals per game9.3 #5
3.1 #198Blocks per game3.1 #207
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wisconsin

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point82–83
  • Lvs Michigan65–68
  • Wvs Illinois91–88
  • Wvs Washington85–82
  • W@ Purdue97–93

A week or more of rest.

Marquette

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Xavier87–89
  • Wvs UConn68–62
  • W@ Providence78–56
  • Lvs DePaul51–62
  • W@ Georgetown76–60

A week or more of rest.