1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. WMU @ BGSU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Western Michigan Broncos at Bowling Green Falcons

Stroh Center · at Bowling Green · Conference game
#187WMUW Michigan
@
#200BGSUBowling Green
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WMUThis seasonBGSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BGSU 78–75 · win probability BGSU 59%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BGSU has more of the edges

WMU 1, BGSU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BGSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WMU 16.8%, BGSU 16.4%. Forced: WMU 13.4%, BGSU 18.5%
BGSUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: WMU 49.9 and allows 54.4; BGSU 51.8 and allows 51.0
WMUSmall
WMU offense vs BGSU defense
Offense 137th of 366 against a defense 231st, on the model’s ratings
BGSUSmall
BGSU offense vs WMU defense
Offense 172nd of 366 against a defense 253rd, on the model’s ratings
BGSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: WMU 32.8, BGSU 37.0. Allowed: WMU 37.5, BGSU 37.2
BGSUSmall
Home court
BGSU at home. This season: BGSU 0-0 at home, WMU 0-0 away
BGSUSmall
Three-pointers
WMU hits 35.3% and allows 36.1%; BGSU hits 34.4% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 36.1% and 34.2% of their shots
BGSUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WMU 0%, BGSU 24%. Transfers in: WMU 9, BGSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: WMU plays 69.3 a game (160th fastest), BGSU 70.5 (96th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
WMU has played the 175th-hardest schedule, BGSU the 192nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WMU 30.5%, BGSU 28.7%. Defensive: WMU 70.9%, BGSU 73.1%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BGSU -2.6—
Total—153.5—
Projected score—WMU 75.4 · BGSU 78

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBGSU -1.4—
1H total71.7—
1H projected scoreWMU 35.2 · BGSU 36.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: W Michigan 1, Bowling Green 1, even 3
W MichiganBetterBowling Green
G T. Hayhurst TR10 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 41
BGSUBig
G J. Johnson TR13.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.5 ast Score 80
G M. Bendinger TR14.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 37
Even
G J. Cranford TR11.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 35
G R. Lee TR15.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 79
WMUSmall
G J. Shackelford11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 59
G J. Washington TR10 pts · 2.3 reb · 4 ast Score 73
No call
F A. Goins3.1 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
F I. Finlinson TR9.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 56
No call
F C. Essandoko TR2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
W MichiganBetterBowling Green
WMU offense137th of 366 · -4.0
WMUSmall
BGSU defense231st of 366 · -6.1
WMU defense253rd of 366 · -6.6
BGSUSmall
BGSU offense172nd of 366 · -5.3
Backcourt-1.0 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt0.0 · 1 player
WMUSmall
Frontcourt-1.3 · 2 players
Bench-1.7 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWMU betterBGSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
W Michigan
Guards
T. Hayhurst31 min · TRM. Bendinger31 min · TRR. Lee29 min · TRJ. Washington27 min · TRJ. Gomez23 min · TRA. Harakow19 min · TR
Forwards
I. Finlinson23 min · TRJ. Eli15 min · TRA. Kiudulas14 min · TRD. WatkinsNew
Centers
J. JünemannNew
Bowling Green
Guards
J. Johnson28 min · TRJ. Cranford26 min · TRJ. Shackelford24 minM. Leach8 minT. Beckford7 min · TRC. Dedivanaj2 min
Forwards
A. Goins8 minC. Essandoko8 min · TRC. Karel5 minP. Squire3 minL. AtenyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WMUBGSU
Scoring
73.9 #203Points per game76.8 #124
1.06 #225Points per possession1.08 #177
69.3 #160Pace (possessions)70.5 #96
Shooting
49.9 #241Effective FG%51.8 #153
35.3 #953-point %34.4 #148
36.1 #2483-point attempt rate34.2 #289
32.8 #241Free throw rate37.0 #129
Possessions
16.8 #191Turnover rate16.4 #164
30.5 #177Offensive rebound rate28.7 #244
12.4 #256Assists per game13.1 #203
Defense
80.1 #320Points allowed72.7 #127
1.16 #336Points allowed per possession1.04 #71
54.4 #310Opponent effective FG%51.0 #163
36.1 #307Opponent 3-point %33.5 #161
13.4 #346Turnovers forced18.5 #73
70.9 #110Defensive rebound rate73.1 #31
4.1 #362Steals per game8.2 #30
2.5 #301Blocks per game3.5 #138
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Michigan

9-20 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Kent State78–86
  • Lvs Ball State71–74
  • Lvs Miami OH67–69
  • W@ Bowling Green88–79
  • L@ C Michigan70–83

A week or more of rest.

Bowling Green

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Toledo76–77
  • W@ E Michigan77–69
  • Wvs UMass81–62
  • Lvs W Michigan79–88
  • L@ Miami OH77–91

A week or more of rest.