1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 9
  3. WMU @ MASS
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 9

Western Michigan Broncos at Massachusetts Minutemen

Mullins Center · at UMass · Conference game
#187WMUW Michigan
@
#209MASSUMass
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WMUThis seasonMASS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MASS 78–77 · win probability MASS 54%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 155.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MASS has more of the edges

WMU 1, MASS 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WMUBig
WMU offense vs MASS defense
Offense 137th of 366 against a defense 248th, on the model’s ratings
MASSSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: WMU 49.9 and allows 54.4; MASS 53.1 and allows 52.9
MASSSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WMU 30.5%, MASS 33.3%. Defensive: WMU 70.9%, MASS 73.9%
MASSSmall
Three-pointers
WMU hits 35.3% and allows 36.1%; MASS hits 35.2% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 36.1% and 35.4% of their shots
MASSSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WMU 0%, MASS 46%. Transfers in: WMU 9, MASS 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MASSSmall
MASS offense vs WMU defense
Offense 170th of 366 against a defense 253rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: WMU plays 69.3 a game (160th fastest), MASS 72.7 (21st). Faster games mean more points
MASSSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WMU 16.8%, MASS 17.8%. Forced: WMU 13.4%, MASS 16.9%
MASSSmall
Home court
MASS at home. This season: MASS 0-0 at home, WMU 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: WMU 32.8, MASS 37.0. Allowed: WMU 37.5, MASS 44.6
Context
Schedule so far
WMU has played the 175th-hardest schedule, MASS the 181st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MASS -1.1—
Total—155.6—
Projected score—WMU 77.2 · MASS 78.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMASS -0.6—
1H total72.7—
1H projected scoreWMU 36.1 · MASS 36.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

W Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: W Michigan 2, UMass 0, even 3
W MichiganBetterUMass
G T. Hayhurst TR10 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 41
Even
G D. Carbuccia6.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 29
G M. Bendinger TR14.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 37
Even
G J. Ndjigue6.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34
G R. Lee TR15.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 79
WMUBig
G J. Clayton TR3.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36
G J. Washington TR10 pts · 2.3 reb · 4 ast Score 73
Even
F J. Wang TR8.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 62
F I. Finlinson TR9.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 56
WMUBig
F D. Wimbley2.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 0
W MichiganBetterUMass
WMU offense137th of 366 · -4.0
WMUSmall
MASS defense248th of 366 · -6.5
WMU defense253rd of 366 · -6.6
MASSSmall
MASS offense170th of 366 · -5.2
Backcourt-1.0 · 4 players
WMUBig
Backcourt-4.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt0.0 · 1 player
WMUSmall
Frontcourt-2.5 · 2 players
Bench-1.7 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.3 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestWMU betterMASS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
W Michigan
Guards
T. Hayhurst31 min · TRM. Bendinger31 min · TRR. Lee29 min · TRJ. Washington27 min · TRJ. Gomez23 min · TRA. Harakow19 min · TR
Forwards
I. Finlinson23 min · TRJ. Eli15 min · TRA. Kiudulas14 min · TRD. WatkinsNew
Centers
J. JünemannNew
UMass
Guards
D. Carbuccia28 minJ. Ndjigue27 minJ. Clayton18 min · TRR. Castineyra3 minJ. EngelNewC. HaileyNew
Forwards
J. Wang20 min · TRD. Wimbley14 minL. Damjanac10 minD. Clerc9 minA. AhmedNewC. SyllaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WMUMASS
Scoring
73.9 #203Points per game79.9 #68
1.06 #225Points per possession1.10 #144
69.3 #160Pace (possessions)72.7 #21
Shooting
49.9 #241Effective FG%53.1 #99
35.3 #953-point %35.2 #100
36.1 #2483-point attempt rate35.4 #265
32.8 #241Free throw rate37.0 #130
Possessions
16.8 #191Turnover rate17.8 #263
30.5 #177Offensive rebound rate33.3 #80
12.4 #256Assists per game16.7 #30
Defense
80.1 #320Points allowed78.8 #288
1.16 #336Points allowed per possession1.09 #189
54.4 #310Opponent effective FG%52.9 #262
36.1 #307Opponent 3-point %33.0 #121
13.4 #346Turnovers forced16.9 #162
70.9 #110Defensive rebound rate73.9 #20
4.1 #362Steals per game6.6 #164
2.5 #301Blocks per game2.2 #334
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Michigan

9-20 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Kent State78–86
  • Lvs Ball State71–74
  • Lvs Miami OH67–69
  • W@ Bowling Green88–79
  • L@ C Michigan70–83

A week or more of rest.

UMass

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Toledo67–77
  • Wvs Miami OH87–83
  • Wvs Ohio94–82
  • L@ Bowling Green62–81
  • L@ Ball State73–74

A week or more of rest.