1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 9
  3. PFW @ XAV
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 9

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Xavier Musketeers

Cintas Center · at Xavier
#250PFWPurdue FW
@
#49XAVXavier
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PFWThis seasonXAV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects XAV 90–68 · win probability XAV 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 157.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: XAV has more of the edges

PFW 2, XAV 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
XAVBig
XAV offense vs PFW defense
Offense 31st of 366 against a defense 291st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
PFW has played the 209th-hardest schedule, XAV the 34th. A record against a soft schedule means less
XAVBig
PFW offense vs XAV defense
Offense 218th of 366 against a defense 89th, on the model’s ratings
XAVBig
Three-pointers
PFW hits 34.2% and allows 37.9%; XAV hits 36.5% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 45.4% and 40.6% of their shots
XAVBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PFW 22.9%, XAV 26.5%. Defensive: PFW 65.5%, XAV 70.5%
PFWSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PFW 14.5%, XAV 14.0%. Forced: PFW 19.1%, XAV 15.5%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: PFW plays 69.0 a game (179th fastest), XAV 71.8 (44th). Faster games mean more points
PFWSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: PFW 30.6, XAV 28.1. Allowed: PFW 28.6, XAV 32.6
XAVSmall
Home court
XAV at home. This season: XAV 0-0 at home, PFW 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PFW 29%, XAV 14%. Transfers in: PFW 2, XAV 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: PFW 52.6 and allows 56.1; XAV 51.8 and allows 54.1
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—XAV -22.7—
Total—157.7—
Projected score—PFW 67.5 · XAV 90.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadXAV -13.4—
1H total73.7—
1H projected scorePFW 30.2 · XAV 43.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Xavier has the better starters

Position by position: Purdue FW 0, Xavier 4, even 1
Purdue FWBetterXavier
G D. Craig13.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.7 ast Score 68
XAVSmall
G C. Westry TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97
G A. Williamson TR7.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 16
XAVBig
G T. Washington TR11.9 pts · 4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 82
G C. Morgan2.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 2
XAVBig
F N. Chitikoudis TR11.1 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 66
G E. Mosley2.8 pts · 1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 9
XAVBig
F J. Milicevic12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 75
F A. Isaac TR9.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 63
Even
F R. Aligbe TR9.4 pts · 7.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 74
Purdue FWBetterXavier
PFW offense218th of 366 · -6.7
XAVBig
XAV defense89th of 366 · -0.2
PFW defense291st of 366 · -7.3
XAVBig
XAV offense31st of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt-5.6 · 4 players
XAVBig
Backcourt+6.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.4 · 1 player
XAVSmall
Frontcourt+3.1 · 3 players
Bench-0.2 · 1 player
XAVBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPFW betterXAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Purdue FW
Guards
D. Craig30 minA. Williamson23 min · TRC. Morgan14 minE. Mosley12 minM. Shrout3 minD. LewisNew
Forwards
A. Isaac24 min · TRE. OrtizNewQ. MorganNewA. WalkerNew
Xavier
Guards
C. Westry31 min · TRT. Washington28 min · TRR. Dominguez23 min · TRB. Appelhans13 min · TRM. Wolf2 minK. HouseNew
Forwards
N. Chitikoudis27 min · TRJ. Milicevic26 minR. Aligbe25 min · TRM. Nwoko22 min · TRH. Thole1 minG. PozzatoNew
Centers
K. WestphalNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PFWXAV
Scoring
74.2 #189Points per game78.4 #91
1.07 #204Points per possession1.09 #149
69.0 #179Pace (possessions)71.8 #44
Shooting
52.6 #125Effective FG%51.8 #155
34.2 #1633-point %36.5 #39
45.4 #603-point attempt rate40.6 #156
30.6 #292Free throw rate28.1 #341
Possessions
14.5 #43Turnover rate14.0 #21
22.9 #351Offensive rebound rate26.5 #311
13.1 #207Assists per game17.4 #15
Defense
78.8 #286Points allowed80.6 #329
1.14 #311Points allowed per possession1.12 #276
56.1 #345Opponent effective FG%54.1 #302
37.9 #355Opponent 3-point %34.8 #237
19.1 #44Turnovers forced15.5 #253
65.5 #327Defensive rebound rate70.5 #136
7.9 #42Steals per game6.5 #181
3.0 #224Blocks per game4.0 #77
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Purdue FW

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Green Bay56–64
  • W@ IU Indy87–81
  • Lvs Wright St70–74
  • W@ Cleveland St92–86
  • L@ N Kentucky71–87

A week or more of rest.

Xavier

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn68–93
  • Wvs Marquette89–87
  • L@ Villanova78–91
  • Lvs Seton Hall68–77
  • Wvs Georgetown91–84

A week or more of rest.