1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. PFW @ BUF
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Buffalo Bulls

Broadview Arena · at Buffalo
#250PFWPurdue FW
@
#237BUFBuffalo
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PFWThis seasonBUF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BUF 78–73 · win probability BUF 68%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 151.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BUF has more of the edges

PFW 1, BUF 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BUFBig
Three-pointers
PFW hits 34.2% and allows 37.9%; BUF hits 37.9% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 45.4% and 45.5% of their shots
BUFSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PFW 22.9%, BUF 27.1%. Defensive: PFW 65.5%, BUF 68.9%
BUFSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: PFW 30.6, BUF 39.6. Allowed: PFW 28.6, BUF 31.4
PFWSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PFW 14.5%, BUF 16.2%. Forced: PFW 19.1%, BUF 17.8%
BUFSmall
BUF offense vs PFW defense
Offense 215th of 366 against a defense 291st, on the model’s ratings
BUFSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: PFW 52.6 and allows 56.1; BUF 55.4 and allows 55.1
BUFSmall
Home court
BUF at home. This season: BUF 0-0 at home, PFW 0-0 away
Even
PFW offense vs BUF defense
Offense 218th of 366 against a defense 257th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PFW 29%, BUF 8%. Transfers in: PFW 2, BUF 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: PFW plays 69.0 a game (179th fastest), BUF 68.2 (219th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
PFW has played the 209th-hardest schedule, BUF the 198th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BUF -5.3—
Total—151.1—
Projected score—PFW 72.9 · BUF 78.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBUF -3.0—
1H total70.6—
1H projected scorePFW 33.8 · BUF 36.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Buffalo has the better starters

Position by position: Purdue FW 1, Buffalo 2, even 2
Purdue FWBetterBuffalo
G D. Craig13.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.7 ast Score 68
PFWSmall
G D. Steffe TR9.9 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 39
G A. Williamson TR7.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 16
Even
G D. Ducommun TR10.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 15
G C. Morgan2.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 2
BUFBig
G J. Starling TR10.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 55
G E. Mosley2.8 pts · 1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 9
BUFSmall
F J. Pitre TR5.9 pts · 6.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 30
F A. Isaac TR9.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 63
Even
F A. Lorick TR10.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 75
Purdue FWBetterBuffalo
PFW offense218th of 366 · -6.7
Even
BUF defense257th of 366 · -6.7
PFW defense291st of 366 · -7.3
BUFSmall
BUF offense215th of 366 · -6.6
Backcourt-5.6 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.4 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
Bench-0.2 · 1 player
PFWBig
Bench-3.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestPFW betterBUF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Purdue FW
Guards
D. Craig30 minA. Williamson23 min · TRC. Morgan14 minE. Mosley12 minM. Shrout3 minD. LewisNew
Forwards
A. Isaac24 min · TRE. OrtizNewQ. MorganNewA. WalkerNew
Buffalo
Guards
D. Steffe31 min · TRD. Ducommun31 min · TRJ. Starling29 min · TRM. Tyne19 min · TRK. Jones10 minH. Reede9 min · TR
Forwards
J. Pitre25 min · TRA. Lorick22 min · TRM. Buteliauskas6 minB. JohnNewT. KuskaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PFWBUF
Scoring
74.2 #189Points per game77.5 #106
1.07 #204Points per possession1.14 #73
69.0 #179Pace (possessions)68.2 #219
Shooting
52.6 #125Effective FG%55.4 #30
34.2 #1633-point %37.9 #20
45.4 #603-point attempt rate45.5 #57
30.6 #292Free throw rate39.6 #65
Possessions
14.5 #43Turnover rate16.2 #152
22.9 #351Offensive rebound rate27.1 #291
13.1 #207Assists per game14.1 #138
Defense
78.8 #286Points allowed77.0 #244
1.14 #311Points allowed per possession1.13 #279
56.1 #345Opponent effective FG%55.1 #333
37.9 #355Opponent 3-point %35.1 #252
19.1 #44Turnovers forced17.8 #105
65.5 #327Defensive rebound rate68.9 #209
7.9 #42Steals per game7.6 #72
3.0 #224Blocks per game2.8 #262
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Purdue FW

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Green Bay56–64
  • W@ IU Indy87–81
  • Lvs Wright St70–74
  • W@ Cleveland St92–86
  • L@ N Kentucky71–87

A week or more of rest.

Buffalo

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Akron70–73
  • L@ Toledo78–99
  • Wvs E Michigan72–67
  • Lvs C Michigan70–75
  • L@ Akron85–99

A week or more of rest.