Rocket Arena · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
AKR -12.5✓ BUF covered by 9.5
AKR -12.5✓ BUF covered by 9.5Closing total158.5Under by 15.5
 BUF | This season | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| 15-14 | Record | 24-5 |
| 16-13 | ATS | 16-13 |
| 16-13 | O/U | 14-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BUF 75–88 AKR · ✓ AKR (87%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 29 | 41 | 70 |
| AKR | 42 | 31 | 73 |
1st half: BUF 29, AKR 42 (AKR by 13). The model had AKR by 7.4 and a total of 75.9 (actual 71).
Team stats
| BUF | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-54 46% | Field goals | 27-59 46% |
| 10-27 37% | 3-pointers | 8-24 33% |
| 10-20 50% | Free throws | 11-18 61% |
| 33 6 off | Rebounds | 36 10 off |
| 13 | Assists | 12 |
| 7 | Steals | 9 |
| 1 | Blocks | 2 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 37 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 2-7 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Sabol G | 36 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 8-19 | 6-15 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 35 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 32 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 6-12 | 1-5 |
| Tim Oboh F | 30 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kyle Jones G | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ezra McKenna F | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Matas Buteliauskas F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Evan Romano, Aleksa Vlajic, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic, Mikhali Pocknett, Daniel Freitag
| AKR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavari Johnson G | 38 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 8-16 | 3-7 |
| Evan Mahaffey F | 34 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 4-8 | 1-1 |
| Amani Lyles F | 34 | 12 | 16 | 2 | 5-11 | 0-5 |
| Bowen Hardman G | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Zach Halligan F | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Shammah Scott G | 28 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 5-13 | 2-4 |
| Sharron Young G | 21 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Eric Mahaffey G | 19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Marvin Musiime-Kamali F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tai Perkins, Rich Brisco, Josh Henderson, Ognjen Stankovic, Conner Groce, Cody Head, Chabi Barre
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAKR -13.5
1 → BUF
CloseAKR -12.5
1 pt toward BUF
Total
Open162.5
▼ 4
Close158.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
BUF +650 · AKR -1000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AKR -13.5 · closed AKR -12.5 · moved 1 toward BUFmodel AKR -12.5 matches the line
model AKR -12.5 = line ✓
Opened 162.5 · closed 158.5 · moved 4 downmodel 162.5
model 162.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | AKR -12.5 | AKR -12.7 | AKR +0.2 | L BUF covered |
| Total | 158.5 | 162.5 | Over 4.0 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | BUF 74.9 · AKR 87.6 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | AKR -7.4 | AKR -13.0 |
| 1H total | 75.9 | 71 |
| 1H projected score | BUF 34.2 · AKR 41.7 | BUF 29 · AKR 42 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| AKR | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22
BUF 0–11 AKRAKR leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · AKR has won the last 11 meetings · BUF 3-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2025-26 | BUF 85 @ AKR 99 | AKR -15.5 | BUF W |
| Jan 20, 2025-26 | AKR 82 @ BUF 63 | BUF +8.5 | AKR W |
| Mar 7, 2024-25 | BUF 70 @ AKR 88 | AKR -18.5 | BUF W |
| Jan 21, 2024-25 | AKR 90 @ BUF 58 | BUF +12.5 | AKR W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | AKR 73 @ BUF 62 | BUF +14.5 | BUF W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Buffalo
29 games played
Straight up
15-14
52% wins
Against the spread
16-13
55% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-13
55% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @ WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @ NIU | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | vs BALL | W 85-72 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 10 | @ OHIO | L 80-91 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | vs KENT | L 81-87 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | @ M-OH | L 102-105 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 207 |
| Jan 20 | vsAKR | L 63-82 | +8.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 23 | vs MASS | L 67-68 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @ BGSU | W 89-78 | +7.5 | W +18.5 | 150.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 31 | vsOHIO | L 83-95 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 3 | vsM-OH | L 71-73 | +4.5 | W +2.5 | 165.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 7 | @ USA | L 69-81 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 11 | @BALL | W 63-53 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 17 | vsNIU | L 70-72 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 21 | @MASS | W 86-82 | +7.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 24 | @AKR | L 85-99 | +15.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 28 | vs CMU | L 70-75 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 151.5 | U 145 |
| Mar 3 | vs EMU | W 72-67 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 6 | @ TOL | L 78-99 | +5.5 | L −15.5 | 155.5 | O 177 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
+7.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+6.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
−6.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
−3.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+7.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−10.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−2.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+18.5
31
vsOHIO
OHIOL 83-95
−14.5
3
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-73
+2.5
7
@USA
USAL 69-81
−8.5
11
@BALL
BALLW 63-53
+11.5
17
vsNIU
NIUL 70-72
−11.5
21
@MASS
MASSW 86-82
+11.5
24
@AKR
AKRL 85-99
+1.5
28
vsCMU
CMUL 70-75
−10.5
3
vsEMU
EMUW 72-67
−0.5
6
@TOL
TOLL 78-99
−15.5
covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+11.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
+14.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
+2.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+44.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−21.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−24.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+16.5
31
vsOHIO
OHIOL 83-95
+21.5
3
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-73
−21.5
7
@USA
USAL 69-81
+4.5
11
@BALL
BALLW 63-53
−25.5
17
vsNIU
NIUL 70-72
−3.5
21
@MASS
MASSW 86-82
+16.5
24
@AKR
AKRL 85-99
+23.5
28
vsCMU
CMUL 70-75
−6.5
3
vsEMU
EMUW 72-67
−4.5
6
@TOL
TOLL 78-99
+21.5
over 16under 13avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Akron
29 games played
Straight up
24-5
83% wins
Against the spread
16-13
55% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-15
48% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JMU | W 85-71 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 8 | vs PRIN | W 104-69 | -13.5 | W +21.5 | 156.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 16 | @ PUR | L 79-97 | +18.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 21 | vs IONA | W 96-75 | -11.5 | W +9.5 | 173.5 | U 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs EVAN | W 97-59 | -11.5 | W +26.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs YALE | L 94-97 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 191 |
| Nov 29 | vs MILW | W 105-81 | -12.5 | W +11.5 | 166.5 | O 186 |
| Dec 3 | vsBUCK | W 97-77 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 6 | @ TULN | W 88-71 | -6.5 | W +10.5 | 162.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 13 | vs MUR | L 100-115 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 168.5 | O 215 |
| Dec 19 | vsEMU | W 93-72 | -15.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 3 | @M-OH | L 73-76 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 177.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 6 | vsCMU | W 82-69 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 164.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 9 | @BGSU | W 77-67 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 13 | vsBALL | W 87-77 | -20.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 17 | vsWMU | W 104-89 | -21.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | O 193 |
| Jan 20 | @BUF | W 82-63 | -8.5 | W +10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 23 | @OHIO | W 86-65 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 167.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 27 | vsTOL | W 91-81 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 30 | vsKENT | W 69-52 | -10.5 | W +6.5 | 166.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 3 | @EMU | W 66-64 | -12.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 7 | @ TROY | L 69-79 | -2.5 | L −12.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 13 | vsMASS | W 99-92 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | O 191 |
| Feb 17 | @WMU | W 90-73 | -14.5 | W +2.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 20 | @BALL | W 78-65 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 24 | vsBUF | W 99-85 | -15.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 27 | @KENT | W 92-70 | -3.5 | W +18.5 | 166.5 | U 162 |
| Mar 3 | @CMU | W 77-64 | -11.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 141 |
| Mar 6 | vsNIU | W 94-55 | -23.5 | W +15.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJMU
JMUW 85-71
+5.5
8
vsPRIN
PRINW 104-69
+21.5
16
@PUR
PURL 79-97
+0.5
21
vsIONA
IONAW 96-75
+9.5
23
vsEVAN
EVANW 97-59
+26.5
24
vsYALE
YALEL 94-97
−4.5
29
vsMILW
MILWW 105-81
+11.5
3
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-77
−3.5
6
@TULN
TULNW 88-71
+10.5
13
vsMUR
MURL 100-115
−19.5
19
vsEMU
EMUW 93-72
+5.5
3
@M-OH
M-OHL 73-76
−7.5
6
vsCMU
CMUW 82-69
−10.5
9
@BGSU
BGSUW 77-67
+5.5
13
vsBALL
BALLW 87-77
−10.5
17
vsWMU
WMUW 104-89
−6.5
20
@BUF
BUFW 82-63
+10.5
23
@OHIO
OHIOW 86-65
+14.5
27
vsTOL
TOLW 91-81
−2.5
30
vsKENT
KENTW 69-52
+6.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 66-64
−10.5
7
@TROY
TROYL 69-79
−12.5
13
vsMASS
MASSW 99-92
−5.5
17
@WMU
WMUW 90-73
+2.5
20
@BALL
BALLW 78-65
−0.5
24
vsBUF
BUFW 99-85
−1.5
27
@KENT
KENTW 92-70
+18.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 77-64
+1.5
6
vsNIU
NIUW 94-55
+15.5
covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJMU
JMUW 85-71
+2.5
8
vsPRIN
PRINW 104-69
+16.5
16
@PUR
PURL 79-97
+12.5
21
vsIONA
IONAW 96-75
−2.5
23
vsEVAN
EVANW 97-59
−0.5
24
vsYALE
YALEL 94-97
+34.5
29
vsMILW
MILWW 105-81
+19.5
3
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-77
+16.5
6
@TULN
TULNW 88-71
−3.5
13
vsMUR
MURL 100-115
+46.5
19
vsEMU
EMUW 93-72
+9.5
3
@M-OH
M-OHL 73-76
−28.5
6
vsCMU
CMUW 82-69
−13.5
9
@BGSU
BGSUW 77-67
−19.5
13
vsBALL
BALLW 87-77
+11.5
17
vsWMU
WMUW 104-89
+29.5
20
@BUF
BUFW 82-63
−21.5
23
@OHIO
OHIOW 86-65
−16.5
27
vsTOL
TOLW 91-81
+3.5
30
vsKENT
KENTW 69-52
−45.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 66-64
−23.5
7
@TROY
TROYL 69-79
−9.5
13
vsMASS
MASSW 99-92
+27.5
17
@WMU
WMUW 90-73
+2.5
20
@BALL
BALLW 78-65
−4.5
24
vsBUF
BUFW 99-85
+23.5
27
@KENT
KENTW 92-70
−4.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 77-64
−17.5
6
vsNIU
NIUW 94-55
−6.5
over 14under 15avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Buffalo
15-14 overall · 7-11 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Toledo78–99
- Wvs E Michigan72–67
- Lvs C Michigan70–75
- L@ Akron85–99
- W@ UMass86–82
6 days since their last game.
Akron
24-5 overall · 17-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs N Illinois94–55
- W@ C Michigan77–64
- W@ Kent State92–70
- Wvs Buffalo99–85
- W@ Ball State78–65
6 days since their last game.