Miami (OH) RedHawks at Buffalo Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 2:00 PM ETBroadview Arena · at Buffalo · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Miami OH and Buffalo
M-OH	This season	BUF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects M-OH 81–76 · win probability M-OH 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 157.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: M-OH has more of the edges

M-OH 5, BUF 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

M-OHBig

M-OH offense vs BUF defense

Offense 100th of 366 against a defense 257th, on the model’s ratings

M-OHSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: M-OH 65%, BUF 8%. Transfers in: M-OH 3, BUF 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

M-OHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: M-OH 58.6 and allows 51.2; BUF 55.4 and allows 55.1

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: M-OH plays 72.1 a game (33rd fastest), BUF 68.2 (219th). Faster games mean more points

M-OHSmall

Three-pointers

M-OH hits 37.1% and allows 33.1%; BUF hits 37.9% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 45.6% and 45.5% of their shots

BUFSmall

Home court

BUF at home. This season: BUF 0-0 at home, M-OH 0-0 away

M-OHSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: M-OH 14.3%, BUF 16.2%. Forced: M-OH 17.4%, BUF 17.8%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: M-OH 25.5%, BUF 27.1%. Defensive: M-OH 71.3%, BUF 68.9%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: M-OH 39.6, BUF 39.6. Allowed: M-OH 30.2, BUF 31.4

Context

Schedule so far

M-OH has played the 207th-hardest schedule, BUF the 198th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

BUF offense vs M-OH defense

Offense 215th of 366 against a defense 207th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	M-OH -5.1	—
Total	—	157.2	—
Projected score	—	M-OH 81.1 · BUF 76

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	M-OH -3.1	—
1H total	73.4	—
1H projected score	M-OH 38.3 · BUF 35.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH LLLWL	19-12	61%	10-4	—
BUF WLLLW	17-13	57%	5-8	—

Venue/role: M-OH away; BUF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH UOOOU	20-11	65%	29-2
BUF OUUOU	16-14	53%	15-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
BUF	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Miami OH

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs HPU	No recent meeting

Buffalo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs PFW	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

M-OH 7–2 BUFM-OH leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · M-OH has won the last 5 meetings · M-OH 7-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 3, 2025-26	M-OH 73 @ BUF 71	BUF +4.5	BUF W
Jan 17, 2025-26	BUF 102 @ M-OH 105	M-OH -10.5	BUF W
Mar 4, 2024-25	M-OH 84 @ BUF 69	BUF +8.5	M-OH W
Jan 4, 2024-25	BUF 79 @ M-OH 93	M-OH -11.5	M-OH W
Jan 9, 2023-24	M-OH 86 @ BUF 65	BUF -1.5	M-OH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Miami OH

31 games played

Straight up

29-2

94% wins

Against the spread

19-12

61% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-11

65% overs · avg +5.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

29-294%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1261%

L W L W W W L W W W W W L W W L W L W L W W W W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1165%

O U O O O O O U O O O U O U O O O O U U O O U O U U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsODU	W 87-72	-16.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 15	@AF	W 76-61	-10.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 20	vsMERC	W 76-71	-15.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 147
Nov 23	vsUAPB	W 111-84	-21.5	W +5.5	160.5	O 195
Nov 26	vsUNCG	W 82-71	-10.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 6	vsME	W 93-61	-17.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 154
Dec 10	@UNCA	W 90-87	-6.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 177
Dec 13	@EKU	W 79-69	-5.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 148
Dec 16	@WRST	W 83-76	-1.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 159
Dec 20	@BALL	W 86-77	-7.5	W +1.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 30	@BGSU	W 93-83	+6.5	W +16.5	150.5	O 176
Jan 3	vsAKR	W 76-73	+4.5	W +7.5	177.5	U 149
Jan 6	vsWMU	W 87-76	-14.5	L −3.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 9	@TOL	W 87-73	+1.5	W +15.5	166.5	U 160
Jan 13	vsCMU	W 100-61	-15.5	W +23.5	158.5	O 161
Jan 17	vsBUF	W 105-102	-10.5	L −7.5	162.5	O 207
Jan 20	@KENT	W 107-101	+1.5	W +7.5	167.5	O 208
Jan 27	vsMASS	W 86-84	-9.5	L −7.5	164.5	O 170
Jan 31	vsNIU	W 85-61	-16.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 3	@BUF	W 73-71	-4.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 144
Feb 7	@MRSH	W 90-74	-1.5	W +14.5	162.5	O 164
Feb 13	vsOHIO	W 90-74	-7.5	W +8.5	163.5	O 164
Feb 17	@MASS	W 86-77	-3.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 163
Feb 20	vsBGSU	W 91-77	-8.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 24	@EMU	W 74-64	-8.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 138
Feb 27	@WMU	W 69-67	-12.5	L −10.5	161.5	U 136
Mar 3	vsTOL	W 74-72	-7.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 6	@OHIO	W 110-108	-3.5	L −1.5	159.5	O 218
Mar 12	vsMASS	L 83-87	-6.5	L −10.5	161.5	O 170
Mar 18	vsSMU	W 89-79	+6.5	W +16.5	162.5	O 168
Mar 20	vsTENN	L 56-78	+12.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ODU

W 87-72

−1.5

W 76-61

+4.5

MERC

W 76-71

−10.5

UAPB

W 111-84

+5.5

UNCG

W 82-71

+0.5

W 93-61

+14.5

UNCA

W 90-87

−3.5

EKU

W 79-69

+4.5

WRST

W 83-76

+5.5

BALL

W 86-77

+1.5

BGSU

W 93-83

+16.5

AKR

W 76-73

+7.5

WMU

W 87-76

−3.5

TOL

W 87-73

+15.5

CMU

W 100-61

+23.5

BUF

W 105-102

−7.5

KENT

W 107-101

+7.5

MASS

W 86-84

−7.5

NIU

W 85-61

+7.5

BUF

W 73-71

−2.5

MRSH

W 90-74

+14.5

OHIO

W 90-74

+8.5

MASS

W 86-77

+5.5

BGSU

W 91-77

+5.5

EMU

W 74-64

+1.5

WMU

W 69-67

−10.5

TOL

W 74-72

−5.5

OHIO

W 110-108

−1.5

MASS

L 83-87

−10.5

SMU

W 89-79

+16.5

TENN

L 56-78

−9.5

covered 19didn’t cover 12avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ODU

W 87-72

+5.5

W 76-61

−6.5

MERC

W 76-71

+7.5

UAPB

W 111-84

+34.5

UNCG

W 82-71

+2.5

W 93-61

+14.5

UNCA

W 90-87

+24.5

EKU

W 79-69

−10.5

WRST

W 83-76

+9.5

BALL

W 86-77

+15.5

BGSU

W 93-83

+25.5

AKR

W 76-73

−28.5

WMU

W 87-76

+2.5

TOL

W 87-73

−6.5

CMU

W 100-61

+2.5

BUF

W 105-102

+44.5

KENT

W 107-101

+40.5

MASS

W 86-84

+5.5

NIU

W 85-61

−12.5

BUF

W 73-71

−21.5

MRSH

W 90-74

+1.5

OHIO

W 90-74

+0.5

MASS

W 86-77

−0.5

BGSU

W 91-77

+13.5

EMU

W 74-64

−13.5

WMU

W 69-67

−25.5

TOL

W 74-72

−16.5

OHIO

W 110-108

+58.5

MASS

L 83-87

+8.5

SMU

W 89-79

+5.5

TENN

L 56-78

−14.5

over 20under 11avg +5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Buffalo

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W L L L L L W L L L W L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1357%

W W W W W L W L W L W W W L L W L L W L W L W L W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

O O U O U U U O O U O U O O O O U U O O U O U U O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSM	W 85-79	-3.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 7	vsGB	W 83-76	-3.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 159
Nov 11	@DEP	W 66-53	+18.5	W +31.5	153.5	U 119
Nov 18	vsUVM	W 94-90	+1.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsVMI	W 78-70	-5.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBUCK	W 73-71	-4.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 29	@CAN	W 71-53	-9.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 124
Dec 6	vsSBU	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 9	@UMBC	W 83-79	-3.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 162
Dec 14	@ECU	L 70-73	+1.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 143
Dec 20	@WMU	W 88-71	-2.5	W +14.5	150.5	O 159
Dec 31	@NIU	W 81-67	-6.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 148
Jan 3	vsBALL	W 85-72	-6.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 157
Jan 10	@OHIO	L 80-91	+4.5	L −6.5	156.5	O 171
Jan 13	vsKENT	L 81-87	+2.5	L −3.5	165.5	O 168
Jan 17	@M-OH	L 102-105	+10.5	W +7.5	162.5	O 207
Jan 20	vsAKR	L 63-82	+8.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 145
Jan 23	vsMASS	L 67-68	-1.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 135
Jan 27	@BGSU	W 89-78	+7.5	W +18.5	150.5	O 167
Jan 31	vsOHIO	L 83-95	-2.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 178
Feb 3	vsM-OH	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	165.5	U 144
Feb 7	@USA	L 69-81	+3.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 150
Feb 11	@BALL	W 63-53	+1.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 116
Feb 17	vsNIU	L 70-72	-9.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 142
Feb 21	@MASS	W 86-82	+7.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 168
Feb 24	@AKR	L 85-99	+15.5	W +1.5	160.5	O 184
Feb 28	vsCMU	L 70-75	-5.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsEMU	W 72-67	-5.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 139
Mar 6	@TOL	L 78-99	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	O 177
Mar 12	vsAKR	L 70-73	+12.5	W +9.5	158.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USM

W 85-79

+2.5

W 83-76

+3.5

DEP

W 66-53

+31.5

UVM

W 94-90

+5.5

VMI

W 78-70

+2.5

BUCK

W 73-71

−2.5

CAN

W 71-53

+8.5

SBU

L 69-77

−2.5

UMBC

W 83-79

+0.5

ECU

L 70-73

−1.5

WMU

W 88-71

+14.5

NIU

W 81-67

+7.5

BALL

W 85-72

+6.5

OHIO

L 80-91

−6.5

KENT

L 81-87

−3.5

M-OH

L 102-105

+7.5

AKR

L 63-82

−10.5

MASS

L 67-68

−2.5

BGSU

W 89-78

+18.5

OHIO

L 83-95

−14.5

M-OH

L 71-73

+2.5

USA

L 69-81

−8.5

BALL

W 63-53

+11.5

NIU

L 70-72

−11.5

MASS

W 86-82

+11.5

AKR

L 85-99

+1.5

CMU

L 70-75

−10.5

EMU

W 72-67

−0.5

TOL

L 78-99

−15.5

AKR

L 70-73

+9.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USM

W 85-79

+10.5

W 83-76

+11.5

DEP

W 66-53

−34.5

UVM

W 94-90

+42.5

VMI

W 78-70

−2.5

BUCK

W 73-71

−2.5

CAN

W 71-53

−15.5

SBU

L 69-77

+1.5

UMBC

W 83-79

+16.5

ECU

L 70-73

−3.5

WMU

W 88-71

+8.5

NIU

W 81-67

−4.5

BALL

W 85-72

+11.5

OHIO

L 80-91

+14.5

KENT

L 81-87

+2.5

M-OH

L 102-105

+44.5

AKR

L 63-82

−21.5

MASS

L 67-68

−24.5

BGSU

W 89-78

+16.5

OHIO

L 83-95

+21.5

M-OH

L 71-73

−21.5

USA

L 69-81

+4.5

BALL

W 63-53

−25.5

NIU

L 70-72

−3.5

MASS

W 86-82

+16.5

AKR

L 85-99

+23.5

CMU

L 70-75

−6.5

EMU

W 72-67

−4.5

TOL

L 78-99

+21.5

AKR

L 70-73

−15.5

over 16under 14avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Miami OH has the better starters

Position by position: Miami OH 3, Buffalo 0, even 2

Miami OHBetterBuffalo

G E. Ipsaro14.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 85

M-OHBig

G D. Steffe TR9.9 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 39

G L. Skaljac10.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.6 ast Score 61

M-OHBig

G D. Ducommun TR10.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 15

G S. Elam TR10.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 64

Even

G J. Starling TR10.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 55

F R. Rolf TR8.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 51

M-OHSmall

F J. Pitre TR5.9 pts · 6.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 30

F A. Woolfolk10 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76

Even

F A. Lorick TR10.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 75

Miami OHBetterBuffalo

M-OH offense100th of 366 · -0.9

M-OHBig

BUF defense257th of 366 · -6.7

M-OH defense207th of 366 · -5.2

Even

BUF offense215th of 366 · -6.6

Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players

M-OHBig

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players

M-OHSmall

Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

M-OHSmall

Bench-3.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestM-OH betterBUF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Miami OH

Guards

E. Ipsaro30 minL. Skaljac29 minS. Elam26 min · TRJ. Kirby17 minB. AndersonNewL. StowersNew

Forwards

R. Rolf27 min · TRA. Woolfolk24 minP. Copeland19 min · TRA. Atlason19 minK. Waltz5 minT. Robbins5 min

Buffalo

Guards

D. Steffe31 min · TRD. Ducommun31 min · TRJ. Starling29 min · TRM. Tyne19 min · TRK. Jones10 minH. Reede9 min · TR

Forwards

J. Pitre25 min · TRA. Lorick22 min · TRM. Buteliauskas6 minB. JohnNewT. KuskaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

M-OH86.3 #10

BUF77.5 #106

Points per possession

M-OH1.20 #15

BUF1.14 #73

Pace (possessions)

M-OH72.1 #33

BUF68.2 #219

Shooting

Effective FG%

M-OH58.6 #6

BUF55.4 #30

3-point %

M-OH37.1 #25

BUF37.9 #20

3-point attempt rate

M-OH45.6 #55

BUF45.5 #57

Free throw rate

M-OH39.6 #64

BUF39.6 #65

Possessions

Turnover rate

M-OH14.3 #36

BUF16.2 #152

Offensive rebound rate

M-OH25.5 #332

BUF27.1 #291

Assists per game

M-OH15.1 #80

BUF14.1 #138

Defense

Points allowed

M-OH76.5 #229

BUF77.0 #244

Points allowed per possession

M-OH1.06 #102

BUF1.13 #279

Opponent effective FG%

M-OH51.2 #167

BUF55.1 #333

Opponent 3-point %

M-OH33.1 #131

BUF35.1 #252

Turnovers forced

M-OH17.4 #128

BUF17.8 #105

Defensive rebound rate

M-OH71.3 #92

BUF68.9 #209

Steals per game

M-OH7.0 #124

BUF7.6 #72

Blocks per game

M-OH3.1 #202

BUF2.8 #262

M-OH		BUF
Scoring
86.3 #10	Points per game	77.5 #106
1.20 #15	Points per possession	1.14 #73
72.1 #33	Pace (possessions)	68.2 #219
Shooting
58.6 #6	Effective FG%	55.4 #30
37.1 #25	3-point %	37.9 #20
45.6 #55	3-point attempt rate	45.5 #57
39.6 #64	Free throw rate	39.6 #65
Possessions
14.3 #36	Turnover rate	16.2 #152
25.5 #332	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #291
15.1 #80	Assists per game	14.1 #138
Defense
76.5 #229	Points allowed	77.0 #244
1.06 #102	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #279
51.2 #167	Opponent effective FG%	55.1 #333
33.1 #131	Opponent 3-point %	35.1 #252
17.4 #128	Turnovers forced	17.8 #105
71.3 #92	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #209
7.0 #124	Steals per game	7.6 #72
3.1 #202	Blocks per game	2.8 #262

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Miami OH

29-2 in 2025-26 overall · 18-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tennessee56–78
Wvs SMU89–79
Lvs UMass83–87
W@ Ohio110–108
Wvs Toledo74–72

A week or more of rest.

Buffalo

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Akron70–73
L@ Toledo78–99
Wvs E Michigan72–67
Lvs C Michigan70–75
L@ Akron85–99

A week or more of rest.

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Buffalo Bulls

What could decide it: M-OH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Miami OH

Buffalo

Miami OH has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Miami OH

Buffalo