Richmond Spiders at Old Dominion Monarchs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 2:00 PM ETChartway Arena · at Old Dominion

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Richmond and Old Dominion
RICH	This season	ODU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects RICH 78–70 · win probability RICH 75%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: RICH has more of the edges

RICH 4, ODU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

RICHBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RICH 14.3%, ODU 15.4%. Forced: RICH 17.8%, ODU 14.5%

RICHBig

ODU offense vs RICH defense

Offense 240th of 366 against a defense 105th, on the model’s ratings

RICHSmall

RICH offense vs ODU defense

Offense 113th of 366 against a defense 222nd, on the model’s ratings

RICHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: RICH 36.9, ODU 34.7. Allowed: RICH 35.1, ODU 42.0

Context

Schedule so far

RICH has played the 125th-hardest schedule, ODU the 188th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: RICH plays 68.8 a game (194th fastest), ODU 70.8 (81st). Faster games mean more points

ODUSmall

Home court

ODU at home. This season: ODU 0-0 at home, RICH 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RICH 25.0%, ODU 26.0%. Defensive: RICH 69.0%, ODU 69.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RICH 29%, ODU 34%. Transfers in: RICH 6, ODU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: RICH 52.7 and allows 52.0; ODU 50.6 and allows 50.8

Even

Three-pointers

RICH hits 37.1% and allows 32.7%; ODU hits 36.0% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 42.6% and 36.2% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	RICH -7.9	—
Total	—	148.4	—
Projected score	—	RICH 78.1 · ODU 70.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	RICH -4.8	—
1H total	69.4	—
1H projected score	RICH 37.1 · ODU 32.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICH WLWWL	16-15	52%	7-4	—
ODU LLWLL	16-16	50%	6-6	—

Venue/role: RICH away; ODU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICH OUUOO	14-17	45%	14-17
ODU OOOOO	21-11	66%	11-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICH	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ODU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Richmond

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs ELON	L70–73LU

Old Dominion

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ GMU	L61–73WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

RICH 2–0 ODURICH leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · RICH has won the last 2 meetings · RICH 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	ODU 77 @ RICH 86	RICH -12.5	ODU W
Dec 19, 2021-22	ODU 61 @ RICH 67	RICH -11	ODU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Richmond

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

W W W W L W W W W L W L L W W L W L L L L L L W L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1552%

W L W W L L W L W L W L L W W L W L L L W L W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O U O U U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U U O O U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsECU	W 87-72	-5.5	W +9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsW&M	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 19	vsVMI	W 87-54	-14.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	vsGWEB	W 102-67	-19.5	W +15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 27	vsFUR	L 72-73	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 145
Nov 28	vsCLT	W 71-66	-6.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	@BEL	W 84-76	+6.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 160
Dec 6	vsODU	W 86-77	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 163
Dec 13	vsSIU	W 93-84	-3.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Dec 17	@ELON	L 70-73	-3.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 143
Dec 20	vsCIT	W 80-56	-18.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Dec 28	vsCHSO	L 72-77	-11.5	L −16.5	159.5	U 149
Dec 31	vsGW	L 85-99	+2.5	L −11.5	162.5	O 184
Jan 4	@FOR	W 83-75	-2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 7	@SBU	W 89-80	+6.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Jan 11	vsJOES	L 65-67	-7.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 14	vsLAS	W 74-53	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 127
Jan 17	@SLU	L 63-88	+14.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 151
Jan 21	vsURI	L 68-69	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	@GW	L 69-85	+10.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 154
Jan 27	@VCU	L 69-77	+12.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 146
Jan 31	vsDAV	L 54-79	-1.5	L −26.5	140.5	U 133
Feb 7	@URI	L 77-82	+5.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 159
Feb 10	vsGMU	W 82-70	+3.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 14	vsVCU	L 67-78	+7.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 145
Feb 18	@DAV	L 63-65	+5.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 21	vsSBU	W 99-94	-1.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 193
Feb 28	@LUC	L 66-69	-2.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 135
Mar 3	vsDAY	L 60-65	+5.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 125
Mar 7	@DUQ	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 156
Mar 11	vsLUC	L 67-75	-4.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+9.5

W&M

W 90-86

−5.5

VMI

W 87-54

+18.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+15.5

FUR

L 72-73

−4.5

CLT

W 71-66

−1.5

BEL

W 84-76

+14.5

ODU

W 86-77

−3.5

SIU

W 93-84

+5.5

ELON

L 70-73

−6.5

CIT

W 80-56

+5.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−16.5

L 85-99

−11.5

FOR

W 83-75

+5.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−9.5

LAS

W 74-53

+12.5

SLU

L 63-88

−10.5

URI

L 68-69

−4.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

+4.5

DAV

L 54-79

−26.5

URI

L 77-82

+0.5

GMU

W 82-70

+15.5

VCU

L 67-78

−3.5

DAV

L 63-65

+3.5

SBU

W 99-94

+3.5

LUC

L 66-69

−5.5

DAY

L 60-65

+0.5

DUQ

L 77-79

+2.5

LUC

L 67-75

−12.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+15.5

W&M

W 90-86

+11.5

VMI

W 87-54

−11.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+14.5

FUR

L 72-73

−2.5

CLT

W 71-66

−4.5

BEL

W 84-76

+3.5

ODU

W 86-77

+9.5

SIU

W 93-84

+23.5

ELON

L 70-73

−18.5

CIT

W 80-56

−10.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−10.5

L 85-99

+21.5

FOR

W 83-75

+15.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−18.5

LAS

W 74-53

−20.5

SLU

L 63-88

−11.5

URI

L 68-69

−7.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

−9.5

DAV

L 54-79

−7.5

URI

L 77-82

+16.5

GMU

W 82-70

+12.5

VCU

L 67-78

−9.5

DAV

L 63-65

−13.5

SBU

W 99-94

+45.5

LUC

L 66-69

−11.5

DAY

L 60-65

−19.5

DUQ

L 77-79

+8.5

LUC

L 67-75

+0.5

over 14under 17avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Old Dominion

32 games played

Straight up

11-21

34% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-11

66% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2134%

L W L L W L L L L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L L L W L W L W W W L L L L W W W W L W L L W W W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

21-1166%

O U O O U O O U O U U O U O O U U O O O U O O U O U O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@M-OH	L 72-87	+16.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsNORF	W 60-57	-8.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 117
Nov 15	@GW	L 73-96	+15.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 169
Nov 18	@XAV	L 69-99	+10.5	L −19.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 21	vsMORG	W 88-56	-11.5	W +20.5	156.5	U 144
Nov 23	@DREX	L 71-75	+3.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 25	@VILL	L 75-89	+22.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 164
Nov 30	@W&M	L 75-88	+8.5	L −4.5	163.5	U 163
Dec 6	@RICH	L 77-86	+12.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 163
Dec 13	@GMU	L 61-73	+16.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 134
Dec 17	vsJMU	W 77-68	+2.5	W +11.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 20	vsCCU	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 28	@MD	L 58-73	+14.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 131
Dec 31	vsAPP	L 73-81	-1.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 154
Jan 3	vsGASO	L 86-93	+1.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 179
Jan 8	@CCU	W 70-66	+4.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 136
Jan 10	@JMU	L 69-70	+6.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 15	@GASO	L 84-87	+5.5	W +2.5	162.5	O 171
Jan 17	@APP	W 75-73	+7.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 21	vsTROY	L 77-83	+5.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 28	@ARST	W 75-71	+9.5	W +13.5	159.5	U 146
Jan 31	@TXST	L 64-81	+2.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 145
Feb 4	vsULM	L 79-85	-14.5	L −20.5	154.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsOHIO	W 78-72	+3.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 150
Feb 11	vsMRSH	L 79-81	+3.5	W +1.5	155.5	O 160
Feb 14	vsGAST	W 78-55	-3.5	W +19.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 16	vsUL	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 21	@USM	L 81-86	+4.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 24	@MRSH	L 88-97	+7.5	L −1.5	159.5	O 185
Feb 27	@GAST	W 81-73	-1.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 154
Mar 3	vsULM	W 87-80	-9.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 167
Mar 4	vsGASO	L 84-88	+2.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

M-OH

L 72-87

+1.5

NORF

W 60-57

−5.5

L 73-96

−7.5

XAV

L 69-99

−19.5

MORG

W 88-56

+20.5

DREX

L 71-75

−0.5

VILL

L 75-89

+8.5

W&M

L 75-88

−4.5

RICH

L 77-86

+3.5

GMU

L 61-73

+4.5

JMU

W 77-68

+11.5

CCU

L 74-76

−5.5

L 58-73

−0.5

APP

L 73-81

−9.5

GASO

L 86-93

−5.5

CCU

W 70-66

+8.5

JMU

L 69-70

+5.5

GASO

L 84-87

+2.5

APP

W 75-73

+9.5

TROY

L 77-83

−0.5

ARST

W 75-71

+13.5

TXST

L 64-81

−14.5

ULM

L 79-85

−20.5

OHIO

W 78-72

+9.5

MRSH

L 79-81

+1.5

GAST

W 78-55

+19.5

W 83-72

+4.5

USM

L 81-86

−0.5

MRSH

L 88-97

−1.5

GAST

W 81-73

+6.5

ULM

W 87-80

−2.5

GASO

L 84-88

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

M-OH

L 72-87

+5.5

NORF

W 60-57

−32.5

L 73-96

+13.5

XAV

L 69-99

+17.5

MORG

W 88-56

−12.5

DREX

L 71-75

+3.5

VILL

L 75-89

+16.5

W&M

L 75-88

−0.5

RICH

L 77-86

+9.5

GMU

L 61-73

−10.5

JMU

W 77-68

−3.5

CCU

L 74-76

+2.5

L 58-73

−23.5

APP

L 73-81

+17.5

GASO

L 86-93

+17.5

CCU

W 70-66

−15.5

JMU

L 69-70

−8.5

GASO

L 84-87

+8.5

APP

W 75-73

+7.5

TROY

L 77-83

+7.5

ARST

W 75-71

−13.5

TXST

L 64-81

+1.5

ULM

L 79-85

+9.5

OHIO

W 78-72

−6.5

MRSH

L 79-81

+4.5

GAST

W 78-55

−14.5

W 83-72

+19.5

USM

L 81-86

+19.5

MRSH

L 88-97

+25.5

GAST

W 81-73

+4.5

ULM

W 87-80

+9.5

GASO

L 84-88

+14.5

over 21under 11avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Richmond has the better starters

Position by position: Richmond 5, Old Dominion 0, even 0

RichmondBetterOld Dominion

G D. Saran TR11.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 52

RICHSmall

G B. Benjamin TR5.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32

G A. Argabright10.8 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 87

RICHBig

G Z. Wiggins6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 46

G D. Stewart TR6.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 44

RICHSmall

G S. Hubbard3.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 10

F J. Kaiser TR9.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 1 ast Score 60

RICHSmall

F Z. Weluche-Ume TR11.1 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 29

C A. Dorries TR16.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 62

RICHSmall

F J. Turner6.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 30

RichmondBetterOld Dominion

RICH offense113th of 366 · -2.0

RICHSmall

ODU defense222nd of 366 · -5.8

RICH defense105th of 366 · -1.0

RICHBig

ODU offense240th of 366 · -7.3

Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players

RICHBig

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt+1.5 · 2 players

RICHBig

Frontcourt-2.9 · 2 players

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

RICHSmall

Bench-3.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestRICH betterODU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Richmond

Guards

D. Saran30 min · TRA. Argabright24 minD. Stewart23 min · TRC. Tanner18 minW. Harper11 minK. Mooney5 min

Forwards

J. Kaiser29 min · TRA. Ball21 min · TRJ. McCaffery10 min · TRC. CookNewD. CaldwellNew

Centers

A. Dorries33 min · TRD. HomenickNew

Old Dominion

Guards

B. Benjamin20 min · TRZ. Wiggins18 minS. Hubbard16 minK. Thurmon11 min · TRC. Parker3 minR. Hellams2 min

Forwards

Z. Weluche-Ume31 min · TRJ. Turner21 minK. Howze10 min · TRB. Nacey8 minJ. NwekeNewL. MartiniNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RICH76.5 #132

ODU75.7 #150

Points per possession

RICH1.11 #119

ODU1.06 #217

Pace (possessions)

RICH68.8 #194

ODU70.8 #81

Shooting

Effective FG%

RICH52.7 #115

ODU50.6 #203

3-point %

RICH37.1 #28

ODU36.0 #60

3-point attempt rate

RICH42.6 #126

ODU36.2 #245

Free throw rate

RICH36.9 #133

ODU34.7 #189

Possessions

Turnover rate

RICH14.3 #32

ODU15.4 #95

Offensive rebound rate

RICH25.0 #340

ODU26.0 #323

Assists per game

RICH14.0 #145

ODU12.9 #218

Defense

Points allowed

RICH74.5 #175

ODU78.7 #283

Points allowed per possession

RICH1.09 #183

ODU1.12 #263

Opponent effective FG%

RICH52.0 #216

ODU50.8 #145

Opponent 3-point %

RICH32.7 #103

ODU32.0 #62

Turnovers forced

RICH17.8 #111

ODU14.5 #321

Defensive rebound rate

RICH69.0 #200

ODU69.7 #176

Steals per game

RICH6.8 #139

ODU5.7 #275

Blocks per game

RICH2.3 #323

ODU3.1 #208

RICH		ODU
Scoring
76.5 #132	Points per game	75.7 #150
1.11 #119	Points per possession	1.06 #217
68.8 #194	Pace (possessions)	70.8 #81
Shooting
52.7 #115	Effective FG%	50.6 #203
37.1 #28	3-point %	36.0 #60
42.6 #126	3-point attempt rate	36.2 #245
36.9 #133	Free throw rate	34.7 #189
Possessions
14.3 #32	Turnover rate	15.4 #95
25.0 #340	Offensive rebound rate	26.0 #323
14.0 #145	Assists per game	12.9 #218
Defense
74.5 #175	Points allowed	78.7 #283
1.09 #183	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #263
52.0 #216	Opponent effective FG%	50.8 #145
32.7 #103	Opponent 3-point %	32.0 #62
17.8 #111	Turnovers forced	14.5 #321
69.0 #200	Defensive rebound rate	69.7 #176
6.8 #139	Steals per game	5.7 #275
2.3 #323	Blocks per game	3.1 #208

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Richmond

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Loyola Chicago67–75
L@ Duquesne77–79
Lvs Dayton60–65
L@ Loyola Chicago66–69
Wvs St Bonaventure99–94

A week or more of rest.

Old Dominion

11-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs GA Southern84–88
Wvs UL Monroe87–80
W@ Georgia St81–73
L@ Marshall88–97
L@ Southern Miss81–86

A week or more of rest.

Richmond Spiders at Old Dominion Monarchs

What could decide it: RICH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Richmond

Old Dominion

Richmond has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Richmond

Old Dominion